jbenedet

The guidance right now, looking at MJO and NAO forecasts, both point to strengthening the -NAO block up until go time. Maybe these are wrong…? But when I see EPS and GEFS following those forecasts, as I do now, I’m hedging in favor of a stronger block in 5 days than what is currently being shown across guidance.

By CNE you mean pike north to NH/VT border? If that’s the case I think you’re going to see a sharp west/east gradient in CNE. Higher amounts west, Lower amounts east. I like NJ and LI better than most of CNE for this one. And def better than NNE. At least right now.

My *current* take on heavy snow probs. SNE > N Mid Atlantic > NNE

Good news is the strong -NAO block is real. The bad news is there is little arctic interaction and therefore we’ve seen a dampening in the solutions with time, due to the combination of these factors. The balance of this is certainly net positive for snow-starved SNE. Highest confidence that the axis of heaviest snowfall is in SNE, and increases as you move closer to the coast.

Can’t argue with this current guidance consensus inside 5 days. Best SECS chance for sub-forum this season, by far.

Sleet. Looks like 2”. Was probably closer to 3” before the sleet compaction.

Yes, but again, 850's could cooperate here (much more likely than not), all the way up to h500. It's the BL, up to 925 where the problems arise. And even though this 12z GFS depiction shows snow in SE NH on this, I am hard selling the clowns here, with a strong southeasterly fetch out ahead. This IS very similar to the problems we had seen during other favorable windows, earlier in the season.

While we will have a strong -NAO at this time, I believe there's a high risk that this one, ironically, hooks up with the SE ridge, because of the overwhelming pacific. It's not apparent at all at H5; H5 looks generally good. But the warm 850 temps and surface flag high chance of ptype issues. The highest probs is a decent track, but "no cold air". This looks similar to the recurring issue we have had in the recent past, and it's a much different look than this week, with cold anomalies throughout the eastern CONUS and SE Canada.

Yea we were sucking subsidence up until 7. Good snow growth so I imagine ratios are good in those areas. I suspect a lot of what has fallen is gone by tomorrow.

A coating only on cold surfaces. Roads just wet. Probably gone in the afternoon. Yet another early spring type snowfall.

20/8 for a low at DAW. About normal. No wind, full sun. Should be a nice day by mid Feb standards.

Feeling more confident about my call for a wintry window beginning this week with background persistence before persistence fully reasserts itself around day 12 and it’s back to +AN. Feb 23 - March 1 looks best. Re-evaluate any potential pattern changes at end of feb.

Thanks for passing this info along. Where do you work, if you don't mind me asking?

What was the cause of BOS running too warm?

Don’t shoot the messenger. As for forecasting I just try to call what it’s likely to be. I think those with good track records this season may *seem* biased warm. It’s just been really effin’ warm…. And they have been consistently right. As for my personal inclinations, if it’s gonna be warm I’m gonna vibe with it. Can’t control it, might as well embrace it. Coming into second half of Feb, with zero pack, I’m at the stage of winter where it’s a big snowstorm or I’d prefer warm.

How many sites do we have “running warm” in New England. I heard this, this season for BED, DAW, HFD, now ORH?! I smell BS.

This was advertised as a back door 12 hrs ago, across guidance. Warm sector now makes it to PWM. Worst offenders were the NAM and HRRR. RGEM and Euro handled it best i.e. baited least.

It will be a relative shock, but this is weak sauce. I think guidance is too cold again (shocker I know). This thing is stale surface cold and it’s not being reinforced from upper levels or surface CAD out of Canada; it’s basically cut off. There’s also relatively warm air masses all around it. This ain’t done moderating.

Force shield of warmth in the northeast prevails. This yawner of a frontal wave didn’t stand a chance. Cold anomalies? Not here. At least not yet…

Cold tucks have been over-modeled all season. I'm really interested to see how this one plays out. The teleconnections, warm antecedent airmass and lack of a strong high, signal past is prologue but guidance still pounding the table that it's real. So we watch. Also sell the NAM. If it happens at all, it's euro-esque.

For the coastal plain I'd point to SST's but for you I think it's more of a story of the tenor of season. Lack of snow cover, and surrounding areas with very warm ground temps vs norms. A little bit of wind and poof. So easy - why? Because those areas from which the wind is fanning are scorched, and we have no in-situ cold to slow it. Add this to a current background where the teleconnections are putrid from a cold standpoint. +AO +NAO, cold retreats. So Caribou and the likes keep their cold; we see the air from philly without a fight.

Looks like a low in the mid 20's Saturday morning. For most, a shock from where we have been, but normal to slightly AN. North of Winne looks cold though.

Thanks. Yea it wasn't a jab. More of a re-analysis. As we closed in, I didn't see any guidance trend towards my thoughts, so I bailed due to the combination of those factors.

I had PSM hitting 65. That looks solid.

@Sey-Mour Snow scared me out of my 70 call showing all those overcast graphics. Nah jk. It was really the lack of short term guidance support. *Nothing* came around to show this potential.