jbenedet
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Everything posted by jbenedet
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Winds are never the focal point for these in general, especially up here. Storm surge, coastal flooding and heavy rainfall.
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GFS also now showing an expansion of wind field upon closest approach—alluding to UL assist/phasing.
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that is the biggest risk up there imo
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Put on your New England climo hat. i think some form of hybridization occurs but “how much”? Mostly tropical, slightly ET? 50/50? My guess is more the former.
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Also we judge hurricane category by wind speed—which doesn’t directly translate to surface pressure falls (min pressure) IF the radius is expanding. The forecast model for intensity based on wind speed doesn’t tell us nearly enough for a TC at 40N
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How well will hurricane models resolve this? I would think the globals showing this evolution more reliable than a tropical model that simply shows a more westward track.
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Every one of those that hook west involves some form of ET transition. Those are the most impactful by far. Do not slow down until after landfall. Less time over cool waters plus UL assist—stronger storm. Dangerous to have another recurve so close to land and a broadly densely populated area. Forecast error highest in the vicinity of recurve. Could greatly limit lead time for accurate warnings.
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Go long blocking, phase and tug west.
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The 0z Ukie has a 1020 mb high anchored over New Brunswick from hrs 42 to 72.
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The most impactful storms up here are due to significant HP systems—causing synoptic scale pressure gradient winds, slow down, and phasing with upper levels before leaving the region. Everyone focuses on the storm, itself. Look at the HP. It doesn’t have a path east, until it goes west.
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At least not yet as per model consensus. But i’d be hedging strongly in favor of a sharper trough given the significant -NAO. I think a tug west, phase, stall/meander 12-24 hr eject ENE, makes most sense.
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6z HMON coming in A LOT stronger vs 0z through 36 hrs. Looks like a cat 2 by that hr.
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Intensity aside, the UKie tug west via capture makes a lot more sense to me physically, vs a GFS track that takes it into ME virtually unimpeded. There is HP building into northern ME and NS during that time frame. There will certainly be some form of ET transition given climo and UL trough interaction...
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already at 998, deeper than the 12z euro has it at 12z tomorrow
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Exactly. Almost as if the next 24 hrs will determine the final outcome. Latest coordinates appear like the south/west camp is winning...at least so far.
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You all realize the euro as of 12z yesterday, didn’t even have henri as a tropical disturbance at 39N and was 200 miles ots upon closest approach It’s slowly capitulating to the rest of guidance.
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Strangest things tend to happen with significant -NAO blocking which we have. GFS too progressive. Ukie seems like a worst case based on climo. 12z Ukie/GFS 50/50 blend seems fair for a baseline case right now IMO.
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The most curious thing is UKie showing this intensity with a slowdown over cool water. There’s def an UL phasing element to this, unlike other major guidance.
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That is too low —by like half—in the UKie scenario. Lol It meanders/crawls north for 24 hrs after landfall.
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If we get a track close to Long Island I could see this stalling out completely near 40N. This -NAO block is significant and there’s no trough. Henri may be a decaying TC at that latitude but I think the flash flooding risk is a lot higher than currently modeled. Prolonged Easterly fetch in late august with tropical dews.
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Full moon on Sunday. A blue moon. “Once in a blue moon?” The slower movement but longer duration could mean a bigger threat for coastal flooding than it appears. Surge likely lessened but wave heights greatened. Henri has already been building seas across LI and SNE given his unusual track near Bermuda, in the neighborhood of the mid latitudes.
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Looks like a non-linear increase in intensity is about to happen based on vis. A step-wise jump from minimal TS to something more akin to a minimal Hurricane...
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August Disco 2021. Do record dews continue?
jbenedet replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
Took the dog for a 45 min run at 9a.m. Felt a lot more like running at 1p.m. -
August Disco 2021. Do record dews continue?
jbenedet replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
These “low temps” lol. Walking around Dover seeing so many without multiple window units, window fans to try and exhaust the heat. Very few with central air. It’s not a luxury anymore, it’s a necessity. Today will make it 15 days 90+ to date? -
Fred’s most important contribution may be in the impact to Grace’s track. Given current forecast, Fred will likely help build UL heights over the western Atlantic as Grace nears Florida, which would mean a more westward track near southern Florida. A WNW track for next several days, to W? That’s my guess... Biggest takeaway is a recurve east of Florida looks very unlikely at the moment.
