jbenedet

Thurs into the shittah. Cruel early guidance. Those 80’s stuck in South joisey. That’s turning into a “best in ME”, surface HP overhead with the back door down to the northern mid Atlantic. Oof.

You’re way off on these numbers, especially since Covid. Covid (more remote work) + housing bubble + no interest on savings has a ton of people owning more than one home.

Lol. COL is way too high for this shit weather. Why? New England has too many transients—people who live here only 3-6 months a year and stay in their Florida Condos the other 6. Resi real estate inflated. And those small businesses we all love also take the hit, paying high rent for 12 months on revenues of half the population for 6. “Look at all those nice homes! Great demographics! High Disposable income!” Ehh, but the occupants are 1500 miles away bro. Check back in May. Oof.

We 60 Best day in the next 10. Left work early. Time for a beer.

EPS/GFS is BS for second half of next week. Yea sure that Wednesday shortwave could cut into Manitoba but it’s not eroding the confluence over the northeast US. What most likely happens is it does cut, but then cuts off quickly and fills and we still have a trough overhead with the BZ over the northern mid Atlantic, primed for a secondary. Snow threat is legit through the 1st.

Friday and Saturday look pretty damn decent. Friday especially- that has low 60's written all over it for the NH seacoast. Huge win before we see the worst weather next week. Next week we winter in spring. Out with a bang.

Thurs looks interesting for a frozen mess from the monads to dendrite and dryslot.

Who does yard work in running shoes. This guy.

In like a butterfly out like a lion.

Threadin’ the needle today. Gorgeous. Shawts on.

I agree on the temps IF we get the sun. Problem is this pattern looks very active too. I’ve been out with the bike and longboard plenty times in sub freezing temps this year so yea, I’ll take 50 and dry any time in early spring. Just no more snow please, unless it’s a doozie.

Will be creating a reason to do every task outside today. I don’t think I sniff 60 again for a while.

We really don’t have to wait long at all. We can table the theory. The first bowling ball starts rolling in 48hrs; at hr120 is trending towards validating the worst this time of year has to offer in the northern mid Atlantic and SNE. Whatever NNE ski country that hasn’t tossed in the towel should be happy.

That’s just not right. The first day of spring. Haven’t had -NAO all frickin’ winter. Now it shows up. Again. This persistence has really sucked. It’s too damn expensive to live up here with climate this bad. Signs outside do make one want to say winter’s over. But it’s a damn trap. The teleconnections and major guidance are painting an ugly picture. Just like this time last year and each year before that…

Today looks pretty damn decent too given the calendar. In between the breeze and in the sun will have a very early spring feel this afternoon. Down-sloping FTW. I’ll take a high of 35 less than 24 hrs after a fropa.

Lol this storm sucked. Immensely. Sunshine before sunset?

Oh I get it. BUT 1002 mb low in southern ontario and 1007 mb low south of LI - March 9. Antecedent airmass is AN. Maybe if lived in the carolinas I'd get excite about stuff like this. Seriously. The H5 vort essentiality evaporates. Looks more like a weak fropa than anything else. QPF has clowns clownin'. Fast forward to 18z Wed, when it's 42 at BDL with precip moving in on a south wind, and weenies waiting for sunset.

Dunno what this optimism is for a light snow event on Wed. The whole thing looks like trash. Winds out of the south. Timing is very early afternoon Wed--no help there. And even if you get the best synoptic look as advertised on the euro/rgem, surface temps are cooked, and rates are too low to overcome. Flakes and wet surfaces, at best. NEXT.

Tossed and burned.

SE NH could eek out another 60F+ today if we avoid the bulk of the warm front clouds/precip and get some sun instead. Going to be close. The atmosphere is plenty warm, and supports it. Looking at temps and sky conditions this morning, better chance than not PSM sees 60 again today.

PSM 48, and DAW still 47 — all guidance busted ~10 degrees too low on this feeble back door cold front. Shorts and ts for the morning exercise, apparently. Rgem now showing temps stabilizing near 50 and tickling up throughout the day. Strange fail—almost as if all guidance factored we still had the snowpack from a few days before. Reality is 9/10 gone. Today will finish off the snowcover in the shaded areas and piles in SE NH. I welcome it. Especially with oil at $120+ barrel. We’d be extremely lucky to finish winter here.

Longitude >> latitude. Check out the east/west gradient. Doesn’t make sense for a SWFE. You’re getting over 9” and Hartford less than half of that? The surface reflection weak—sure. But the UL disturbance strong. And the “it’s a SWFE forecast” is why there was a shockingly bad late adjustment (lower) in the snowfall forecast in the western half of the subforum.

Great storm. Still snowing. Been snowing since 5a.m. I.e. NOT a SWFE. Another Gloucester jack?

All this confusion still - it’s not a true, run-of mill SWFE. you know which events tend to suck most for CT? Late blooming Miller B’s. Latest guidance shows snow in eastern New England well into evening, while radar looks to shut off in western half of subforum within a few hours. What gives? The mid level lows are in western NY, and our coastal low will hook up with that forcing south of the cape…

Looks like a high end SWFE/low end Miller B. Position and strength of surface high is pretty classic for a Miller B, but the shortwave and jet are much further north than the classic setup. Result is a prolonged easterly surface fetch off the Atlantic but with very cold temps mixing down from 850 - areas in eastern new england that stay snow will easily see a foot.