jbenedet

For Thurs/Fri, I believe down to the southern Berks is very much in this one. Another case of a weak cold tuck that is displaced west and most pronounced well inland. This aspect will probably surprise to the cold-side. At the same time I could see ORH east having p-type issues until way end.

yea definitely. I also believe the combination of showery precip with temps oscillating above freezing further worsened the issue. Persistent Moderate rates in banding would sufficiently cool the column, with Td’s where they are; but once rates diminish surface temps creep back above freezing, melting ensues, until the next shower moves in.

Lol 37/-1 at PSM No wonder haven’t seen a flake.

Yea once again: for most it’s a lot of snow obs with very little to show for it on the ground. Mid coast to DE Maine maybe cashes in with 6”+ but I haven’t looked at it in any detail to wager one way or the other.

This thing really was a head-fake in every aspect. Gloucester rips for 15 min, but then flurries for the next hour… The patchy-ness look to the radar is indicative of a storm winding down; it’s just doing so at its closest approach. The model qpf output had misleading looks of banding features setting up and intensifying along the coast. Instead it looks like we have scattered snow showers pin-wheeling through with most decaying once near land. Scattered snow showers don’t stack up. So those clown maps clownin’.

Another +5 high in the books. Overcast, North wind and all. Guidance still lost on these surface temps at very short lead times.

Even with the pacific skunked, a combination of weak shortwave plus losing the big +NAO is all you need to see things work in Berks/ NNE this time of year; and that's what we get. With this setup though, SNE very vulnerable to warm sectoring whenever these shortwaves tap the Arctic early, Ohio river valley -->west. I fear this more conducive setup to cold/snow may last only a week or so, though. More noise than shift in prevailing large-scale pattern. This upcoming week it's shades of the MJO in phase 1/8 (it would show its face, however faintly) with the weekend coastal wanting to evolve into a block --> at least capping the ridging in the east. We could go right back to a more hostile pattern after this week. My leaning is we do. So will need to reassess a lot in the second half of this week.

Looking past this weekend and the near-term coastal threat. Pattern seems very workable for all-snow/mostly snow from a line say, the southern berks to just north of DAW, up into just north of Portland ME. Today's "socked in" locations vs torched locations display the juxtaposition well, on where bias is tilted in favor of snow and strongly against, during this time frame. Very climo/gradient based look.

Tickled 60 throughout eastern SNE and didn't even need the sun to do it. Low 50's dews. Nice.

Geese rejoicing today. Spotted in ORH.

53/49 NYC

The H5 cut-off low is filling with Pacific air thanks to the raging PAC Jet. One reason why the solution seems so non-sensical, and why it looks like a warm occlusion.

59 in Philly already. zero chance anyone in new England hits 60 tomorrow says @Ginx snewx Guy is a seer. Calling blizzards and all. What a guy.

The geese shat all over your pattern change. Modelologist.

"Hate has no home here" is your profile pic. In an american weather forum. Snowflake? Maybe some relevance there. Check yourself bro. Embarrassing.

For the math challenged. Prob </= 60 anywhere in New England tomorrow = verification. Yes that is still possible. Cheers

Use the quote function or improve reading comprehension. Thanks

So many snow obs, so little to show for it. That really has been the story this season. Been snowing since 6 a.m. but poor snow growth. Looks like about an inch. Changeover imminent.

I mean precip - how much...who knows? That's the hard part. But from a snow total forecast - BL temps will put a tight lid on this for Cape and Islands at least through Sunday Night. Looking at even the 12z CMC, which is nearly ideal track, ratios will be a significant inhibitor. If the stars align, Sunday night into Monday a.m. could get interesting out there.

Friday has gorgeous day potential in Eastern SNE - classic needle-threader in between fronts with cooked 850's and sw flow, timing coinciding with max ISR in early afternoon. Maybe tickle 60 in spots? That would be awesome.

I mean - this is forecasting; it's all a game of odds. Committing is a word that should be taken out of the medium to long range forecasting vernacular, unless of course we are committing forecasting suicide. It connotes absolute confidence. We need to do better to accurately convey uncertainty. Maybe it was lost, but I'm broadly painting a picture here that, I believe odds favor big storms in the east, but odds also favor New England is on the warm side of these. If we lock into east based blocking, big snow potential much greater than normal, i.e. vs H5 analogs. That's all. It's your CPC monthly level of detail. It says something if you're looking at it with uncertainty in mind.

Gonna be really interesting seeing Jan 20th, region wide observationally fitting November 20th. We keep bringing this up but the climo disparity will be most significant at/around that time frame. At the same time, the arctic and cold source regions such as Siberia are following their Jan 20th climo and in some cases have been colder/snowier than climo. Tying this together it makes for explosive baroclinicity in the Eastern CONUS. To elaborate: I believe if/when the arctic is involved we will be prone to seeing rapid cyclogenesis and deepening shortwaves in the East. From a "big storm" standpoint, this is obviously intriguing; but from a pro-cold/snow standpoint - absent high latitude blocking you will really want to see Long wave troughs overhead (moreso than usual). Or probabilistically: warm sectoring risk higher than normal; suppression risk lower than normal.

And then the 18z GEFS, for the same storm system— snowing at this hr on the 18z GFS. H5 not so bad….”workable” 850 and below…

It’s all kinda backward. Usually mets complain about amateurs not using H5 enough; I think most lately are guilty of not testing those juicy H5 depictions by seeing what the model output is showing at those same hrs @ 850 and below. Red flags.