jbenedet

It's really funny to me people looking out 10 days plus using NWP, when the fundamental underpinning to NWP is CHAOS THEORY. What that means is, if you get a detailed forecast right, out 10 days+, it was a result of luck, and not any skill. And so the next time you attempt to use the same methodology (it worked last time!), and we get a completely different result, you're flummoxed. Worse, still, you're not gaining skill either.

What does this mean? Specifics? This is fortune teller level detail here. C'mon.

Still didn't winterize the moped. Glad I followed the Newington geese crew. Took it out around town today. Noice.

Sun is really impotent from say 12/1 to 1/15. It’s easy to understate how important this is to pack building, and getting that prolonged wintery feel. I think if there’s any frustration it should be that—we will lose out on at least most of this window. Also, while our climo average temps are warmest in December vs January and February, I believe the chances of a pack annihilating warm up go up significantly after 1/20. The threshold to hit 65+ goes up despite lower averages, most of this having to do with the relatively stronger sun in the southeast and the ability for warm sectors to fan this up the Apps.

12z NAM MOS you posted yesterday was pretty damn well spot on with a high of 48 MHT. 47 high currently. But yea, you’d think we could do better given how warm 850 on up is. Testament to the solar min more than anything, I suppose. If we avoid the clouds, it’s low 50’s tomorrow. Should feel nice.

Yea. That number makes a lot more sense. And I'd take 50 for MHT before 45 given the overall setup.

meso guidance for tomorrow's highs is suspect. Too cold. Reading a cold tuck, with the warm front into Bangor ME, and a stronger HP to our south, than to our north. Strange. Been noticing this a lot lately for the short term mesos - it's as though the data assimilation has been to correct for cold tucks this time of the year; but it has "over-corrected". 850's are cooked. The 6z euro is 5-10 degrees warmer than the 12z Nam at 18z Thursday. Sun is out; no easterly/northeasterly winds. Buy the euro, sell the Nam.

Those geese are still munchin’ away on green grass in Newington. They knew. But models!

That’s what I’m saying. The chances are up.

You want a make a cogent argument where a few degrees of warming has already made a huge difference in local climate—Buffalo NY. Lake Eerie open longer/later; slightly more instability with the warmer lake temps. These “anomalous” snowfalls will become much less so…

Very run of the mill cold here. 12/-1 DAW Eastport Maine with a forecasted high of 31. Have to head to Savannah Georgia to find temps that warm today. Pretty awesome.

Just lost power for 30 seconds. Had been flickering often the past 15 min. Seems the winds are lower but the gusts are higher vs earlier today.

What? Your inability to read? Me too. It’s embarrassing for the red tags.

42/37 PSM. East wind. May the pack eating feast commence.

high Dews + high wind. That's the pack killer. And that's what we have this time.

Not sure how reliable this guidance is, but not outlandish compared to BOX latest. Widespread damage in Portsmouth, Kittery and Hampton if this verifies

Yea. Agreed. Lots of vulnerable spots in these areas. But if I had to pick most at risk it would be Portsmouth/Kittery at the mouth of the Piscataqua. I've seen the winds rip in this area with much weaker setups, but the severe conditions usually confined to right on the coast - inside rte 1A. This situation is obviously much different. Are there any good historical analogs?

Speaking for SNE - the lack of snow during this window from 12/1 to say 1/15, is most disappointing in terms of building a sustainable pack. Peak climo is later, sure, but the Solstice really does a lot to minimize pack reduction--it's difficult to overstate.

This looks like sustained tropical storm force out to Rte 1 in NH seacoast. Expensive real estate, and lots of people included in that area. That's gonna cause problems.

ESE winds are rocking on the NH coast by 6z Friday. Not sure how that doesn't spike dews up to Winne, so that its just white rain by that time.. My guess is ~half of this is in NH and MA (south of the whites) is of the white rain variety. The southern greens, best chance it's "real".

33/24 in PSM already. East winds didn't even start yet. Looking like a 45 by midnight type day at PSM.

Highest temperature 18z saturday, down to Virginia/North Carolina border will be in Eastport Maine.

Gonna be pretty damn awesome to see the Northern Mid Atlantic with highs in the single digits and some 10-20 degrees colder than Eastern NH and Maine on Saturday.

Subtle shifts, but the EPS has been trending towards an earlier/further south vertically stacked solution. It's shifted ~250 miles further south and east since 12z 12/20 runs. May not mean much in terms of the clown maps, but the current H5 depiction looks a lot more severe for Upstate NY, VT and western MA than 12/20 runs.

That's too much of a good thing, as a snow lover. Coupled with the high winds and severe cold, power outage threat, definitely another state of emergency in the making.