jbenedet

PSM 48, and DAW still 47 — all guidance busted ~10 degrees too low on this feeble back door cold front. Shorts and ts for the morning exercise, apparently. Rgem now showing temps stabilizing near 50 and tickling up throughout the day. Strange fail—almost as if all guidance factored we still had the snowpack from a few days before. Reality is 9/10 gone. Today will finish off the snowcover in the shaded areas and piles in SE NH. I welcome it. Especially with oil at $120+ barrel. We’d be extremely lucky to finish winter here.

Longitude >> latitude. Check out the east/west gradient. Doesn’t make sense for a SWFE. You’re getting over 9” and Hartford less than half of that? The surface reflection weak—sure. But the UL disturbance strong. And the “it’s a SWFE forecast” is why there was a shockingly bad late adjustment (lower) in the snowfall forecast in the western half of the subforum.

Great storm. Still snowing. Been snowing since 5a.m. I.e. NOT a SWFE. Another Gloucester jack?

All this confusion still - it’s not a true, run-of mill SWFE. you know which events tend to suck most for CT? Late blooming Miller B’s. Latest guidance shows snow in eastern New England well into evening, while radar looks to shut off in western half of subforum within a few hours. What gives? The mid level lows are in western NY, and our coastal low will hook up with that forcing south of the cape…

Looks like a high end SWFE/low end Miller B. Position and strength of surface high is pretty classic for a Miller B, but the shortwave and jet are much further north than the classic setup. Result is a prolonged easterly surface fetch off the Atlantic but with very cold temps mixing down from 850 - areas in eastern new england that stay snow will easily see a foot.

This to me is highlighting strong thunderstorm risk. If you see a line of strong thunderstorms marching west to east this evening take those high wind probs way up.

Records under siege. AWT.

50 by 2 p.m.? Snow cover FTL?

Lol ASH up to 56 as of 8:50 a.m.

Suns out. Will be in the 50’s in an hour.

42/36 and breezy. Pack eating combo for overnight conditions. And dews will be rising for another 24 hrs. Only the piles remain by sunrise tomorrow.

MHT up to 42F. Nice day for Feb

I'd be pretty surprised if it doesn't, MHT - South/east. The warm front lifts through around sunrise and moves north/east, unmitigated.

Reggie now showing low 60’s into SNH. Take ‘em up. We torch tomorrow.

Euro has Presidents’ Day well into the 50’s now.

Last day of single digits for a while. Noice.

Lol. Weenies talking about snow cover holding back this steam engine. Torch. Period.

Snow cover will be gone here Wednesday. Warm front timing keeps being pushed forward on guidance. Will hit the low 40’s Wed evening with dews.

Which is kinda what you want - no? I want to see through the aesthetic.

Through Wed much of this will be gone. I think Wed will take care of much of what's left. Just the piles. Trace to 2" upstream nashua area.

Timing is biggest issue right now. I believe it will speed up a bit, flow is very progessive. But you're right if I had to find one criticism for this potential-- it's timing.

Even the Ukie is trending toward a 1045 + Bermuda High. Robust Tropical connection. Torch it.

This is SW/SSW. It's the classic orographic assist up the eastern Apps right up into York ME. @dendrite isn't in as good a spot for this. Snowpack, elevation, longitude, will cap potential in his back yard. Long 60's for the NH Seacoast away from the immediate shore. If I had to pick - Nashua may be good for 70.

I also don't believe the fropa Friday will translate to colder than normal temps. Pacific looks torchy. I think the weekend temps trend higher vs current guidance. More like early spring.

This look is 60's deep into New england pretty easily. Teleconnections; everything. Thursday looks even better than Friday. Locally 70 in spots. Bank on it. Only question is whether records will fall...