jbenedet

The GEFS has trended warmer on Sunday. A lot warmer. My base case is the CF is basically 5 miles north of me, rain. Then drapes south the 2nd half. Half storm/qpf lost to rain. Another situation where DAW cashes in but points just south /east of there have significantly less.

The problem with Monday is the ensembles are showing an open frontal wave, fast flow with North/south orientation. It's mid January so there will be a stripe of 1-6" snow somewhere (my guess is far interior) but this is a shit event by our climate standards, verbatim.

You’re gonna want to be west of the CT river for these, or up at Winne latitude in the east. Plenty of room to cut per the ensembles. I’m expecting rain imby.

The ensembles are AN for this week and considerably once north of the pike.

You want to bet against me on that through day 10?

SE MA meh’d it’s to its best snow of the season and best event for the foreseeable future.

This looks like a wintry day for south eastern MA maybe up to Boston; and then too for most of Maine. Could last another 6 hours in those areas. Light snow but very wintry feel. I think I’m tapped here with maybe 1”. Snowing but too lightly to add up and very poor snow growth.

Maine getting the IVT. Falling between zones of forcing now; subsidence moving in overhead. Precip shutting off.

Agree. I had said 100 miles SE of BM, but this is more like 200 on latest. It’s still too far… That said, I still think that would be closer to the cape/islands with the main convection.

Looking at the 6z euro; this is irritating that the overall track and intensity is very close to what I had envisioned but the precip shield is so anemic on the north/west side.

Yea it’s been a bad stretch due to warmth; not lack of precip. What’s kinda crazy though is if you go back to 2015 it’s pretty damn close to your climate average, despite this stretch. I think we’re missing dry years and this looks like the first in a while…

We have been precip rich many years in a row. I think the fact that this hasn’t translated into >> avg snowfall is the big story that doesn’t quite get the attention because our 10 year average is still pretty consistent with our climate…but if we start mixing in those drier years you’re really gonna see the affects of a slightly warmer winter climate on the long term snowfall averages… To maintain our averages we have to snow when the precip is available because it can be woefully dry some years.…this may be one.

The trailing shortwave out of Alberta is a serious issue apparently… This system keeps trending stronger with time and that is dampening the lead wave northern stream interaction. I underestimated this. At least it adds clarity to some of the model chaos we’ve seen recently; being that this wave is emerging from such a data sparse region.

12z GEFS is an improvement in terms of qpf. It’s warning criteria for I95 to just south of Boston.

Kinda funny how we had pages and pages for shitta clippa's but now the most snow starved areas of the subforum are poo-pooing a 980 mb low just SE of the BM inside day 5. No, it ain't great but it's the best opportunity many have seen in a while down there...Not to mention zero p-type issues. Gee, when's the last time you guys saw an event like that?!

Yea it's not your idealized NE, track and bend back after hitting the coast. It's more of a NE --> ENE trajectory. A clean phase maximizes latitude but the bigger story is the area coverage of the precipitation to the north/west

I don’t think you’re getting away from this. The guidance is pretty solidly aligned here. Storm is limited on latitude gain, especially at the coast. I think the best to hope for is a clean, phase. This I think is much higher odds than latest guidance indicates

It’s not our region’s storm. I think Hartford, Providence to Plymouth MA on south are all still in the game.

I don’t know why the consensus isn’t a phaser but southeast of the BM. That’s what I’ve been seeing as most likely outcome… Now weenies — who gets warning snows with a 980 low ~100 miles southeast of the benchmark. 95 crew, where you at?

So electricity prices went up but…natural gas prices didn’t. In fact it’s one of the only commodities that’s the same price as 20 years ago…It’s very cheap assuming your system is efficient. Also it’s a tough deal when your energy production is lowest when it’s winter and especially when it’s cloudy. That’s when your energy usage is highest, outside of maybe a severe heatwave. Do you have a backup system? My driers are all also nat gas… We are sitting on a ton of nat gas in the US and you greenies are helping that out further by removing future demand… I drive a hybrid, so don’t get at me.

This reminds me of blizzard of 96 but more south/east - due to more confluence over the northeast. I referenced this pattern about a 12 days ago, and it's here...ready to deliver... I think you're in a good spot at this lead time based on latest guidance. So is the inside 95 crew of new england. North of there, yea, odds fall off fast but I'd be watching closely up to the pike.

Anyone have table of seasonal Snowfall totals for a city/town in seacoast NH past 10 years?

No. That was last year and year before. That sucked in seacoast NH. Tons of white rain and mix. Great for you guys. Very touch and go around here. You really have to add +3 to climo to get a good feel on where that pattern still does really well and that’s basically a line just north/west of ASH, DAW and PWM.

Should do PSM. Fawgettabout DAW in winter.

It’s pretty much what you should expect in significant -NAO/-AO pattern which is being clearly telegraphed on guidance now.