jbenedet
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Everything posted by jbenedet
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Make the best of your weather it’s the only weather you got. I’m looking for another 50+ day. Let’s see if we can hold off the clouds; whoever does will score a great day. Otherwise mild but meh. Over/under line looks like PSM latitude.
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Some knew.
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I’m most concerned by this look as it means more pack building in Northern ME, QC and NB, which I think is a harbinger of a significant -NAO developing in March. This in turn keeps storm tracks Mid Atlantic—>south. If you’re looking for mean reversion - N to BN and dry would be it. And that’s also multi year persistence. I hope this is dead wrong.
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Yea I was wrong about Atlanta. Thanks for remembering. Right about this crap staying south of northeast though. You have been wrong the whole season though. So cheers.
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No kiddin’. It also looks like this is “as good as it gets” —next panel at hr 384 already near normal. The deepest cold is still way out west. The big troughing still out west. Storms are going to want to amplify early just east of the Rockies and bend back, producing high risk of warm sectoring, around here. This look is shit for 75%. The hope should be that it’s wrong.
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The NAM is literally all alone, and has been for 48 hrs. Now it’s pulling NS’ leg. BS threat isn’t close on the GFS or Euro. Needed 100 miles; bc the south coast MA and RI is warm.
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What am I missing. This looks a lot like persistence. Gradient oriented with climo over northeast. Very Workable for interior NNE. Everyone else fighting warm sectors and ptype issues.
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50 doable tomorrow DAW to PWM probably nice needle threader; just north of the clouds.
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DAW: 34/21 Another morning “low” near the average high. Another morning that short term forecast guidance busts low.
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AWT
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@Ginx snewx still meh?
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I honestly don't remember. But I don't recall any notable snowfalls imby. Just N to slightly BN and lots of rain in late March and most of April. We had big -NAO in mid to late March which meant confluence overhead and cold dews and cold nights. Strangely we also had snow threats in mid april past few years but they turned out to be non-events; just really cold vs climo. Remember this bc of how it screwed my garden planning and pushed it back closer to May.
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Last year the NAO tanked on March 15th and stayed negative through just about all of April. It didn't even materialize in snowfall. It just made for shit weather. I really, really hope that does not happen. But that would be close to 3 year persistence...
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Yea I had a shit ton of ice too. Rain-soaked pack, a lot of which frozen in the snow as temps dipped. I mean, it really sucked bc it made the walking surfaces treacherous long after we lost the wintry appeal. Not a fan. Happy we torched it.
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Oh it's gorgeous right now. But was pissed to wake up today to dense fog. Lost a few hours of sun. The point is though, with the glacier close we're much more at risk of getting socked in or reducing the window of a break out to spring-like warm sector, than points 50+ miles south. It's an annoyance I'd much rather not have when the winter pattern, generally sucks.
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That gray and white is going to get wiped out today; up to 4". I don't think it's sitting pretty until you find those shades of 6". Areas south/east of that line have had a ton of mixed crap. In a crap pattern I'd much prefer to be far away from the NNE glacier so as to avoid meso highs --> meso lows that aid to sock in 35-40 dank. There's hell to pay for the "brightness" of a snow pack in a shit pattern, and that is, ironically more darkness.
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Big pack eating event underway. Dews broadly already up above freezing and can't find backing winds until you're in Wisconsin. 68/48 Cleveland OH. 61/49 Erie PA Philly hundreds of miles from the core of the warm sector already 60/47.
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Atlanta GA will have more snow than NYC and how many other locations in SNE, by this weekend??? Looks like an epic paste bomb around there (by southeast climo standards).
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Welcome to futility.
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How does it go north, though. 1028 mb high over Ohio; dews in the teens down the NC border.
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The dews are plenty cold in that region. I also don't see this trending north. looks like pasty snow in the far interior of the southeast. I'm picking up what the NAM is throwing down.
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DAW 36/24; PSM 36/26 as of 8:50 a.m. Average high for the date exceeded.
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DAW and PSM waking up to 29/23. 4-5 degrees from normal high.
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Sunday also has 50 F potential if we can hold the sun. Andover MA area to PSM that narrow sweet spot. Even PWM upper 40’s potential.
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I think we will wake up tomorrow finding multiple stations in east MA already 57-60. The timing of the fropa is poor to maximize daytime temps but the airmass behind it is also AN, so temps probably don’t climb from the morning, but don’t fall either as sun and compressional heating offset the cooling aloft. Looks like a great day for a fleece and a walk in the park.
