jbenedet

Speaking for SNE - the lack of snow during this window from 12/1 to say 1/15, is most disappointing in terms of building a sustainable pack. Peak climo is later, sure, but the Solstice really does a lot to minimize pack reduction--it's difficult to overstate.

This looks like sustained tropical storm force out to Rte 1 in NH seacoast. Expensive real estate, and lots of people included in that area. That's gonna cause problems.

ESE winds are rocking on the NH coast by 6z Friday. Not sure how that doesn't spike dews up to Winne, so that its just white rain by that time.. My guess is ~half of this is in NH and MA (south of the whites) is of the white rain variety. The southern greens, best chance it's "real".

33/24 in PSM already. East winds didn't even start yet. Looking like a 45 by midnight type day at PSM.

Highest temperature 18z saturday, down to Virginia/North Carolina border will be in Eastport Maine.

Gonna be pretty damn awesome to see the Northern Mid Atlantic with highs in the single digits and some 10-20 degrees colder than Eastern NH and Maine on Saturday.

Subtle shifts, but the EPS has been trending towards an earlier/further south vertically stacked solution. It's shifted ~250 miles further south and east since 12z 12/20 runs. May not mean much in terms of the clown maps, but the current H5 depiction looks a lot more severe for Upstate NY, VT and western MA than 12/20 runs.

That's too much of a good thing, as a snow lover. Coupled with the high winds and severe cold, power outage threat, definitely another state of emergency in the making.

Yea it will be like that in western CT, Berks and Greens. There will be SE/SSE winds funneling relatively very warm moist air from the Atlantic, right up until UL heights crash. You’re looking at temps from 45-50 to 5-10. The deltas will be pretty damn close.

All criticisms aside, there will be some hell to pay for this level of UL forcing. The Southwest wind threat with the arctic front looks most threatening right now, overall. But the biggest threat looks like CT river West, where height falls are steepest. W CT looks most primed, where lapse rates are most unstable. Persistent strong southeasterly winds out ahead, off the relatively warm, moist Atlantic, set the stage.

She cuts off really early at 500 and 700; at the same time the surface reflection is ~1000 mb. I have always much less preferred such evolutions. Positive feedbacks between surface and UL's are greatly limited. Which is why the CCB snows (absent the LES enhancement) are so lame. The biggest snows occur when this thing is fully stacked and weakening; contrary to what we typically see. And that is in Ontario Canada, with widespread 12-24" amounts, which is certainly respectable. So the threat for a widespread heavy snowfall in the CONUS remains, but we need to see it fully vertically stacked some 500 miles further south than latest guidance.

This is already hideous for front end snows, outside of VT Upstate NY and PA.

We got tropical tidbits; your job(?) has been supplanted.

Take temps/dews way up on Thursday. No -NAO No snowpack in SNE +SST anomalies And the Canadian “cold tuck” will be with a strong and predominant relatively “warm” easterly fetch off the Atlantic given how far west this amping shortwave pumps UL heights.

Too much of a good thing: the arctic oscillation. With it so deeply negative any shortwave out west is “amp” happy. Deep cold is immediately tappable and synoptic wave development accelerates. Available cold is dumped west. We get the stale cold. Rinse repeat. Also explains why the best event for SNE ytd (sans the Berks) was that late blooming “crap” wave that barely registered 1000mb SE of the BM.

Sparrows hoppin’ about like it’s early November. I believe if snow is your hope, you look to the Berks and greens on the backside of this monster. But that also means the rest of us “easterners” are gonna have a prolonged torch on the front side.

Those geese never stopped grazing in Portsmouth. But models!

Top ten white rain event

Look I know your upset, and butthurt, and you suck at forecasting. But please, come up with something else. This is boring.

1” of glop getting washed away. Cooked.

You guys do this for work and you still suck at it. immensely. Society gives you a zero-value contribution. Do better. Find something more productive to do with yourself.

The ukie with dews in SE NH into the 40's by 12z tomorrow.

Yea no kiddin' on northeast winds. Quebec City with a high of 37F today, 32F tomorrow, December 16. But it's a "-NAO" to the model huggers.

Once the (initialization) on guidance digests the developing +NAO the marginal areas east of the CT river will be cooked. The bulk of the surface cold is to our west; not to our north, which naturally means a "backing" west occlusion. So once the UL confluence ebbs it will be "not even close" for us eastern folks. Good storm for the berks, Greens, and upstate NY though.

Next! NAO flipping positive right when we need it most. The block will be fleeting and escaping east as storm makes closest approach. Looks like a cutter. I’m expecting 45-50F and rain in SE NH. Connecticut river west, gonna want to watch for sig snow chances. wave spacing awful. AN airmass in cold source region. did I say next?