jbenedet

No. I meant would lose all ice. There’s small sections of the Cocheco near the mill dam that’s been frozen over. Also Willand pond the same. Also, watch out for the mosquitoes. They’re back apparently.

Looks like the local ponds, lakes and streams will fully open up before this latest ++AN snap ends.

Naw. You and @ORH_wxman bitter that I point out that your life work is really just a waste of life. Sorry to break it. It’s a fraternity of losers. To be an outcast is a good thing here. You also undermine the credibility of meteorology. Add that to the list.

Yea you really should have. 5 minutes of daily natural observations outperforming 5 weeks of model hugging. Well done. Modelologists making meteorology a farce.

That explains a big piece of it. But I believe there’s something else going on. Some recent studies out on how Covid weakens the immune system, especially right after getting over it. This is likely another big piece, and it’s been the pattern in my specific case. The propensity for Covid to trend towards pneumonia has always been the pathogenicity. If susceptibility to pneumonia goes up, I suspect it does too for a whole host of other viruses/bacteria. And yet there’s still more unknowns I believe contributing…

Liebniz's chaos theory distills so much. Just running a model with slightly different initial conditions; it's mind blowing the first time you see it. Especially when taken in consideration with the inherent error associated with measurement and interpolation. I believe there are complementary ways to improve weather forecasting accuracy but the bulk of short term "growth" is outside of NWP. NWP will see further improvements as we get more data (measurements over time and throughout the globe at different levels of the atmosphere); and find better ways to incorporate this information continuously into weather models. But this is an under-taking much bigger than one person, which is why I say the individual forecaster should look outside of NWP to improve forecast skill.

Nah there's a big difference between me and you. One of us is learning the inherent limitations of NWP (in some cases the hard way), while the other still pours their heart and soul into something that NWP was always fundamentally unequipped for. The devil is in the details. And we all should foremost respect that, as weather enthusiasts and meteorologists. If we don't the field loses credibility. It's not what you don't know that gets you in trouble; it's what you think you know that just aint so... (Every 10+ day detailed forecast)

@40/70 Benchmark That is a forecast. Some details to deduce skill. I can respect that, even if I disagree with the methodology. Analogs have value, but at a very high level. Details, likely still to be burnt.

It's really funny to me people looking out 10 days plus using NWP, when the fundamental underpinning to NWP is CHAOS THEORY. What that means is, if you get a detailed forecast right, out 10 days+, it was a result of luck, and not any skill. And so the next time you attempt to use the same methodology (it worked last time!), and we get a completely different result, you're flummoxed. Worse, still, you're not gaining skill either.

What does this mean? Specifics? This is fortune teller level detail here. C'mon.

Still didn't winterize the moped. Glad I followed the Newington geese crew. Took it out around town today. Noice.

Sun is really impotent from say 12/1 to 1/15. It’s easy to understate how important this is to pack building, and getting that prolonged wintery feel. I think if there’s any frustration it should be that—we will lose out on at least most of this window. Also, while our climo average temps are warmest in December vs January and February, I believe the chances of a pack annihilating warm up go up significantly after 1/20. The threshold to hit 65+ goes up despite lower averages, most of this having to do with the relatively stronger sun in the southeast and the ability for warm sectors to fan this up the Apps.

12z NAM MOS you posted yesterday was pretty damn well spot on with a high of 48 MHT. 47 high currently. But yea, you’d think we could do better given how warm 850 on up is. Testament to the solar min more than anything, I suppose. If we avoid the clouds, it’s low 50’s tomorrow. Should feel nice.

Yea. That number makes a lot more sense. And I'd take 50 for MHT before 45 given the overall setup.

meso guidance for tomorrow's highs is suspect. Too cold. Reading a cold tuck, with the warm front into Bangor ME, and a stronger HP to our south, than to our north. Strange. Been noticing this a lot lately for the short term mesos - it's as though the data assimilation has been to correct for cold tucks this time of the year; but it has "over-corrected". 850's are cooked. The 6z euro is 5-10 degrees warmer than the 12z Nam at 18z Thursday. Sun is out; no easterly/northeasterly winds. Buy the euro, sell the Nam.

Those geese are still munchin’ away on green grass in Newington. They knew. But models!

That’s what I’m saying. The chances are up.

You want a make a cogent argument where a few degrees of warming has already made a huge difference in local climate—Buffalo NY. Lake Eerie open longer/later; slightly more instability with the warmer lake temps. These “anomalous” snowfalls will become much less so…

Very run of the mill cold here. 12/-1 DAW Eastport Maine with a forecasted high of 31. Have to head to Savannah Georgia to find temps that warm today. Pretty awesome.

Just lost power for 30 seconds. Had been flickering often the past 15 min. Seems the winds are lower but the gusts are higher vs earlier today.

What? Your inability to read? Me too. It’s embarrassing for the red tags.

42/37 PSM. East wind. May the pack eating feast commence.

high Dews + high wind. That's the pack killer. And that's what we have this time.

Not sure how reliable this guidance is, but not outlandish compared to BOX latest. Widespread damage in Portsmouth, Kittery and Hampton if this verifies

Yea. Agreed. Lots of vulnerable spots in these areas. But if I had to pick most at risk it would be Portsmouth/Kittery at the mouth of the Piscataqua. I've seen the winds rip in this area with much weaker setups, but the severe conditions usually confined to right on the coast - inside rte 1A. This situation is obviously much different. Are there any good historical analogs?