jbenedet

Nothing says dynamic like a 1012 mb surface low, and a 1027 mb surface high in NB that shunts east as the surface low develops.

DAW, cold tucks like a mfer and it's still 34/32

Probably your average high for 1/5. Just no cold around.

Agreed. It is ridiculous. Clown forecasters not helping either. Somehow these guys get paid for this.

Damage in Troll-land still hugging the bowl apparently.

Clowns sounding alarm for wet roads; schools delayed for light rain. AWT Value score: NEGATIVE.

Weenies getting duped. NAM guidance (non-MOS) continues to be running way too cold at very short lead times. I have pointed this out before. Euro much more reliable. Look at the past 8 runs for temps at 12z today. It was awful.

Temps/dews look above freezing across all guidance during the height of the clipper Friday, even up here in SE NH. Snow will fly but when dews are >33F you better have rates to see it add up, and for most of us that looks like an issue. ORH hills to Berks, monads, could be an exception. Really tough for rest of us I think. And then we hit 40 on Saturday, and whatever has “stuck” it’s gone, outside the aforementioned areas.

There's no SE ridge. 240 hr out There's no SE ridge. 180 hr out There's no SE ridge. 150 hr out There is a SE ridge.... 120 hr out

So many 200 hr+ maps

Agree on timing and temps. But in how these cold tucks work - to be getting delayed is to also to be getting denied. The window of cold narrows, bc the backside timing with the ULL swinging through is still the same. The cold tuck still coming, but weak sauce. And much weaker than modeled across guidance up through yesterday.

Yea my high per the euro is around 40 but in the morning Thursday. Big difference vs previous runs, which had temps crashing into low 30's starting tonight.

Mood flakes on friday. But warm dews and surface temps saying "white rain"

lol 12z Euro taken me up to 40's again tomorrow. Someone was saying ice storm at BDL? @Damage In Tolland

Yea that's what it is showing off and on. But I believe going to see it flex more often than not during that window. N to AN UL heights. A nagging issue. This look at 144 is very tenuous for example--if that shortwave amplifies slightly, we easily see enough ridging to take eastern SNE out of the game. It wouldn't take much for this to look like a flatter version of the storm we are experiencing right now, which is still too warm for many. But not for far interior, Northern NH, western MA, VT and Maine.

The cold is at least in eastern Canada, vs central/western. We have that. Pacific is poor and that keeps us with AN bias BUT in JANUARY, which is workable (meaning, when the arctic isn't involved) in areas with average highs in the 20's -- western MA, Vermont, interior NH and much of Maine. But the robust SE ridge is also a problem with storms prone to warm sectoring eastern areas. I think longitude will matter more than latitude over next few weeks. West better than north. And Northwest >> SE. Most favored areas for snow chances would be Berks and Vermont.

Anyone who would prefer a cold wedge mid 40's and overcast vs 65 and sunny, I don't get. Better off moving somewhere with a worse climate and lower COL. I don't care what the calendar is. Unless the cold is producing, I want nothing of it. 65 sunny on Jan 4 is a huge win. Congrats to those who have it.

Yea. Late March, or better yet late November - given sun angle and SST similarities.

45 is still like +13 around here. Lol.

What a late March look. All the mid 40’s behind the door. Up to caribou before freezing. 70 in Delaware.

What makes you so sure? Your bogus mid to long range forecasts? I wonder why we have such high forecast error for shortwaves in datasparse regions of Canada then. My argument is in the precision and accuracy of this. You can get a snapshot. But good luck rolling that data forward into something reliable. "Pretty darn good", in the world of forecasting is actually crap. You are way more confident than what this technology and data can output. Pick a phase any phase: "A butterfly flaps its wings"

Do you guys ever worry about how poorly sampled that area is? Like you're analyzing an illusion because the data is so sparce?

Using climo blankedly can certainly have its pitfalls. Snow cover, soil temps, lake temps, ocean temps all have a say in it. Broadly speaking, none of these variables are near Jan 3rd norms, for the region as a whole. The one key exception, of course, is the sun angle, which is fixed. But saying it's peak climo right now creates a forecast error trap given the background context. The world around us needs to look like Jan 3.... We can swing back and mean revert to the climate calendar with a string of BN days, but until that happens....caution.

No kidding. This is great.

Jan 6th threat: H5 has appeal, and will likely continue to, but surface looks too warm, and that’s the prevailing issue. Highest POP collocated with most marginal temps up to 850. Warm antecedent air mass, weak dynamics, and incoming surface cold lags behind. Systems like this where in-situ cold —or lack thereof—makes or breaks it. We know where this case falls. Advisory event if everything works out perfectly, onset during overnight, stronger system. Next.