jbenedet

“Ignoring”. Not the right choice of words chief. You lazy guys just need your daily dose of model crack to get through the day. Hope springs eternal.

Jan 4 is the big dog potential when the pacific isn’t skunked. It’s just too far south for us; save maybe extreme southern sections.

A whiff… And then a whiff or rain. Can’t wait.

Until the storm comes in, and with it the pacific air.

The serviceable airmass for 4/5 is gone by the 7th.

The 7th one is all but completely off the table. Even if the track somehow takes it north to our region, which is unlikely in and of itself, it will be flooded with tropical pacific air. Rain. Careful what you wish for. You guys…SMH

Laugh at what you want but these dumazz tik tokers would have had higher verification scores than most of the people in here —degrees and all—by studying effin’ wooly worms for 3 min. Yup that’s right, those big ugly hairy mfers crawling around your yard in late fall. But models… Sebastian Maniscalco voice: “Aren’t you embarrassed???”

Yea guy, modelology FTW.. Better off listening to the 12z CMC over the 12z GEFS. Right? That cohort of modelololgists wasting everyone’s time. Verification scores; easiest thing to check but let’s look at more garbage output because, well, we’re lazy and can’t think for ourselves. Good luck.

Yes Jan 4 threat is real. I’ve made that clear. It’s a small window before the large scale pattern reasserts. But I think this window is dry for our subforum.

Yea that’s what I’m feeling.

Yea first time since last winter season. Add it to the growing list of signs pointing to a big warmup in coming weeks.

The 2nd week of January, beginning Jan 7th-ish, looks like torchiest (?) period so far this season. Whoever gains a pack prior will be wiped out during this window. Very strong signal for significant +T anamolies with duration. Thinking this will be weenie cliff-jump period.

To be sure, I think Jan is going to torch. The grass has greened up and it will stick for the next couple of weeks at least. That’s what all signs are pointing too-observationally, MJO, global guidance, and even the guys at the CPC. I’m not saying it will never snow again, but we are in a very poor synoptic pattern for snow at the moment, and it actually looks like it gets worse before it gets better. First week of Jan looks slightly AN, but then we’re back to +AN. I do think it makes sense to wait until that analog consensus for El Nino’s —very late Jan into February period which tends to have a large scale switch to wintry conditions. Although, before getting more enthusiastic for a big comeback we need that timeframe to come within view.

We tried to tell em.

RE Jan4: The northern stream is improving but the southern stream is deamplifying over the western Atlantic. That’s the trend on guidance; and it’s supported by the teles. My thoughts are still that the northern stream will dig for gold; and it can hook up with the southern stream shortwave much sooner, over the SE CONUS; but —despite this—the downstream UL height amplification over the western Atlantic will remain muted and therefore not allow enough latitude gain to bring SNE into the game. Still think south of mason Dixon more interesting than Nova Scotia but both are very much in the game. At the same time, Portsmouth NH 40, sunny and dry. My best guess.

Epic flock of geese spotted in Newington. Close the shades to February.

I’m very interested to know how many El Niños had strong comebacks due to wholesale pattern changes vs taking the p anomalies and existing storm tracks and throwing them into peak winter climo. If —and that’s a big if—it’s most of the latter, we’re in big trouble.

I’d get excited about a comeback if the warm/wet storms weren’t so goddamn warm. I mean, the calendar won’t help us when it’s been 5-10 degrees above freezing, generally. You need wholesale changes. You overlay what has happened storm-wise (take a mean) at peak winter climo and it’s still trash. Maybe this changes in a month, but right now the persistence forecast is near as bad as it gets for winter-weather.

I mean with the El Niño backdrop it makes sense to have the high precip amounts; but we’re at record levels. I see it differently- El Niño conditions will persist, we know that. We can’t get every 2”+ rain producer on the continent and also expect the cold interludes to consistently track the big snow producers over our heads. The p anomalies in this regard would be insane. It’s a bad bet. The very stormy pattern for us is when it’s warm. Very warm. That continues to be the case. That’s balanced by brief periods of seasonal cold and dry.

We can’t get every storm guys. We gonna blow every precip record away? Lol. Dry has to happen some time; unfortunately it’s with the cold.

Check out the trend in New Brunswick. Surface HP. But that trend is still in early innings…

I mean, that would happen but confluence is building in the western Atlantic at this time. It’s going to offset that correction, imo.

That is def the trend.

I am skeptical; I think it’s one of these that occludes around Virginia’s latitude and slides ENE. Worth watching though.

That’s a well timed Canadian surface HP showing up on the 6z GFS. Watch this trend. Pay attention Mid Atlantic/extreme southern New England.