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jbenedet

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Everything posted by jbenedet

  1. jbenedet
    In all seriousness this one will be fun to watch; how much background warmth and significant El Niño conditions can muck up peak climo with a decent SLP track.
  2. jbenedet
    Nice morning out with the dog. 32/21 PSM @8:50 am +5 T departures against guidance. Who coulda seen that?
  3. jbenedet
    You’ve been tracking a crap storm potential for 10 days. We knew. Enjoy mostly white rain.
  4. jbenedet
  5. jbenedet
    This is an excellent point. 850 track has been trending up and in. Very tucked.
  6. jbenedet
    H7 and H5 goes over SNE and closes off there. The surface reflection could easily end up further north/west, collocated with the H5 occlusion on that merit alone. The other aspect to further north/west track risk is the trailing shortwave is now the key player, and it is getting deeper with each run; while dampening the lead wave. The lead wave is now almost fully dissipated. Main takeaway is the evolution of this storm has changed significantly in just a day of runs; there's a lot more uncertainty (than usual) at day 3 as a result. Stronger system and tucked in is now much more likely than weak and southeast. Also with regards to timing - seems ~12 hours later as a result of the trailing shortwave being the primary feature.
  7. jbenedet
    You could use the mute option. But Nahhhhh. GFY
  8. jbenedet
    @Damage In Tolland is a child in a man's body. @40/70 Benchmark spends months analyzing in agonizing detail, but is outperformed by a 3 min read of the outside world. @ORH_wxmanWill show excitement on every storm, regardless the potential. The biggest green tag weenie, that rope-a-dopes the cohort of idiots and enables the weenie cliff-dive. A true depression driver. @WinterWolf Eats squirrels and is proud of it. Circus of rejects.
  9. jbenedet
    You guys have the mute button. Use it. But you don't...I wonder why? Circus. Echo chamber for imbeciles and terrible forecasters.
  10. jbenedet
    Pretty damn cool the way the pacific jet just amps up with time with such consistency. Check out the area in Northern Gulf of Mexico. Significant El Niño flexing. You see a firehouse pointed toward southeast Canada; that air coverages and sinks, filling our Canadian high with maritime tropical air. It doesn’t anchor and the depth of the cold weakens with time. It’s why a significant -NAO can get neutered with a deep trough in the west and El Niño background.
  11. jbenedet
    GEFS is south. Bigger point is the way the surface high becomes one extended all the way to Bermuda. That’s a “too warm” problem for all densely populated locations along the coast. West is best.
  12. jbenedet
    I don’t look at the ICON, personally. i referenced the CMC only to see the “what if” such a scenario played out; albeit highly unlikely. I think the main takeaway is the significant snow totals look confined to a one region area, regardless of the evolution. It’s a fragile setup.
  13. jbenedet
    Yea, this looks a lot more like a latitude capped storm—>early occlusion, with UL heights building over top of it due to trough in the pacific and then slide ENE. The 12z CMC does not make any sense to me; 12z GFS much closer to the actual evolution imo.
  14. jbenedet
    I’m def more in the camp that this is a mid Atlantic—>south snow storm at the moment. However there will be a significant longitudinal gradient. Where H5 closes off, in and away from the coast, sees the jack. The GFS track/evolution was near perfect for a significant mid Atlantic storm but look at the east surface winds ripping. And they never orient N/Northeast, instead to ENE. The surface high in reality extends from eastern Canada to Bermuda, and therefore maintains the surface wind direction off the Atlantic. This is being flagged on the ensembles, with +surface temp anomalies. Model guidance has consistently been too cold with very short lead times this season. It’s ridiculous that GFS has LI in low mid 30’s with this wind and SST’s in upper 40’s. It’s a major issue for NYC metro. Hell even BOS will be 40F with this look.
  15. jbenedet
    There is no argument. You picked one map of two bc that fits your snow glass view. Talk to me about the EPS H5 and Pacific jet. Good luck. “See more snow” Yup. Got it.
  16. jbenedet
    Oh wait. Lemme get this straight—you were analyzing the output from one op run at day 8, and I’m the one grasping for straws with the EPS output. See more snow. Apt name. Accurate.
  17. jbenedet
    That’s 2m temp anoms. Thanks. We know. Your H5 is there also, because of that.
  18. jbenedet
  19. jbenedet
    I believe you’re right on this. The pacific worsening as this is trying to get going is outweighing the northern stream improvements in the east.
  20. jbenedet
    And the weenies were rejoicing this morning on… who the eff knows. You know, you guys can run these loops too…Just sayin’. Hope springs eternal.
  21. jbenedet
    12z GEFS looks like dog shit for the 4th. Gone.
  22. jbenedet
    You guys read model output verbatim. Report on it. Thanks for the pbp. Cool. We all can read.
  23. jbenedet
    I think you can get an early phase; but it’s a mistake to extrapolate a further north track—it’s a cut-off slide ENE. Confluence over the western Atlantic.
  24. jbenedet
    That’s a robust -NAO turned to western Atlantic ridge for the 7th/8th. Thanks to the skunked pacific. -NAO be damned. Easterly flow, warm.
  25. jbenedet
    That’s close for areas like Richmond VA, up to ACY. 12 hours earlier phase. Boom. That region should be watching very closely.
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