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jbenedet

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Everything posted by jbenedet

  1. jbenedet
    There was ~100 mile shift west to the landfall location on 0z Thurs guidance vs 18z wed.
  2. jbenedet
    We tried to tell em. I don’t see any mechanism for this to weaken until the center passes. Very serious situation evolving on the fresh water flooding front….
  3. jbenedet
    That boom moment is rapidly getting pulled forward. I.e. there is a subtle acceleration to the “steady” intensification happening at the moment.
  4. jbenedet
    Give it six hours.
  5. jbenedet
    It was about 100 miles west of Tallahassee. The rainfall threat with Michael was much lower than is with Helene. That’s why the natural disaster risk is overall higher imo. We are also going to see a stronger storm (higher wind and overall rainfall) further inland due to the UL vort phasing and PRE. So I think the power outage risk is higher generally for a much larger area.
  6. jbenedet
    Talahassee, Atlanta.
  7. jbenedet
    18z GFS did not reach this min pressure until 6z-12z tomorrow.
  8. jbenedet
    Now the guidance that had a TC genesis with a very weak start are rapidly losing betting odds. Right initially…not translating well at the moment… 995 mb, sure, but looks very healthy from a satellite presentation standpoint. I wouldn’t be sticking with the more conservative guidance right now. Balance has shifted slightly in favor of more aggressive now…
  9. jbenedet
    Significant -NAO patterns are good for displacing climatological patterns. This syntopic interaction and extra tropical transition is common to what is experienced in the northeast; unusual in the southeast…
  10. jbenedet
    You can see a PRE setup pretty clearly on the major guidance, but it’s obvious on the 12z CMC. Most guidance currently centered around Tallahassee for the best forcing.
  11. jbenedet
    The fast track is misleading to fresh water flooding risks. The heavy rain starts tomorrow in Florida panhandle and doesn’t stop for 30 hrs. The interaction with the strong ULL will enhance and prolong the rains, as if this was actually a slow mover. Regardless of exact landfall I think Tallahassee is in an especially vulnerable spot in this regard.
  12. jbenedet
    Having the repeat signals from the EPS and GEFS run after run is —as many have already stated—as strong an indication as any at this lead time that a strong tropical system is likely to develop. And then we have the MJO transition phase 6 to 7/8. The high amplitude troughiness seen across the central/Eastern CONUS on some of the op runs around the time of interest is much more likely than not…
  13. jbenedet
    I feel like NHC just complicates the warning and watch situation by not upgrading marginal calls like this. I.e. they make their job a lot harder.
  14. jbenedet
    Should have a designation based on radar and satellite. TD or weak STC.
  15. jbenedet
    All the NAM caveats apply but this is a synoptic gradient event if it materializes. Currently, highest prob is a sub tropical system, More persistent easterly gales, higher surge and higher surface winds than what the min surface pressure implies is what to expect.
  16. jbenedet
    Kind of funny reading through these comments while the op GFS is showing run after run of a land falling TC/STC in the Carolina’s within D4. But zzzzzz away….
  17. jbenedet
    The impending shear impacts are mitigated due to storm relative motion. As long as Francene maintains a significant easterly component to track, that should maintain the case--more or less steady state in terms of surface pressure. I believe the weakening will coincide with the forecasted northerly recurve. The key of course, is when that exactly occurs, before or after landfall...
  18. jbenedet
    I’m much more interested in storm size at this point. If I had to guess, Francine looks more like a mid to high end cat 2 in terms of ACE. Anyone got those exact numbers to share?
  19. jbenedet
    Wind…who cares…? All about surge. Yea…even in a cat 1 in this part of the world…Modest 3 ft with proper fetch transforms the look of SE LA. Let’s watch…. https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/slr/3/-10114013.53249664/3562572.3384631854/6/satellite/none/0.8/2050/interHigh/midAccretion
  20. jbenedet
    Surprising seeing consensus to miss Puerto Rico, given current position and trajectory. Next 6 hours will be interesting, not just for Puerto Rico, but a direct hit; however unlikely, would have important implications to intensity and therefore track...
  21. jbenedet
    As is how things almost always go with mdr threats east of leewards. Gotta miss the first trough, or it’s way out to sea. Really needs to stay well south of 20N while passing Puerto Rico for that to happen. This one has a good start point and early trajectory to miss…but it’s a coin toss considering most of latest guidance shows otherwise.
  22. jbenedet
    I think southeast Georgia to southwest SC. Savannah GA to Charleston SC, more specifically, highest risk. Plenty of time for changes but that’s the current high risk area for major fresh water flooding.
  23. jbenedet
    The Gulf of Maine may also be seeing more warming due to higher volumes of water via river/stream watersheds as warming climate inducing higher precipitable water in New England region. Not only is this water fresh, but it’s also a lot warmer than the Gulf of Maine. This could also be compounding the fresh water effects of melting sea ice noted above….
  24. jbenedet
    @bluewave Yes I am in agreement with that.
  25. jbenedet
    At the moment, odds are strongly in favor of significant rain threat; odds are against wind and surge threat. The scenario of a stall near Savannah GA—advertised across all major guidance and only 90 hrs out—could make a run of mill storm in terms of intensity highly impactful and, financially, very costly.
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