jbenedet

Run with the EPS guidance; sell the GEFS. Seeing MJO to phase 1 within a few days across all reliable guidance, and a likely stall here. Phase 1 is high probs AN in the northeast in February…This is especially the case close to the coast. WAR flex incoming. The GEFS guidance for the NAO/AO teleconnections is also indicating AN is arriving by this weekend…spikes in both indices… Next storms we will very likely be on the warm side of; I’m really hoping this comes with some gradualness or we risk flooding.

I’ll continue to use the most recent obs, for when things are rapidly changing. Thanks.

No. light rain/freezing rain at PSM https://www.wunderground.com/weather/us/nh/portsmouth

Rain/snow line is racing up the coast. Looks like it’ll be up to cosstal NH in an hour.

Mid 30’s at least and outside shot of ~37.

It looks like a beautiful day in Boston today. Ridiculous seeing upper 20’s on the op guidance for highs. Near normal is doable this afternoon.

Yea we’ll see. The antecedent is seasonal.

It’s different story when they rip. Light east winds with no fetch; no big deal. This ain’t that.

Yes check out the euro.

It looks like plain rain even to PSM by 12z tomorrow. I still don’t understand why the guidance is so cold in eastern sections, directly down stream of these strong and persistent easterly winds.

More in Portsmouth than Portland and Augusta?! Don’t understand this map in southeastern NH.

East winds rip up to Acadia. That ain’t your mesolow CAD signal for the coast.

I think it’s pretty straight forward—-There will be a coastal front that sets up and persists somewhere from PSM to DAW and likely right over my head on down to ASH. I’m expecting a lot of 32-35F rain after 3-6” thump.

Unless you have a good surface high in south eastern Canada, you don’t get an early transfer with the best baroclinicty and vorticity to the west. It wants to bend back.

The surface temps on the GFS are ridiculous

If you pull the arctic phasing sooner - what happens? That's the risk here. I think the setup and teles promote early and clean phasing. I could see it bomb over VT/western MA.. It's a very deep system—Gulf meets arctic— and most are in the wrong part of the long wave to be on the cold side...is my guess

I’m looking at the amped teles and UL vort, and artctic/gulf potential phasing here and wondering how this isn’t a sub 985 low on guidance somewhere in the vicinity of Pittsburgh….The BZ is primed. This looks like our strongest storm in a while with plenty of mid level dynamics as it enters our region… Nothing points to progressive either. This should have the wave space for the full synoptic wave development—mid level occlusion before it ejects east. I could see the evolution changing quite a bit from here.

Great call up here. This storm did not perform at all as I expected. Completely wrong. The whole precipitation distribution is much more as though the primary never completely fizzled all the way into CNE. The early transfer never panned out, and the dynamics followed…

North of pike weenie shrinkage.

The HRRR qpf output looks much more like CMC/Euro AI. Interesting battle.

RGEM surface warm bias but one of the coldest pieces of guidance for tomorrow

The CMC/RGEM is still with the Euro AI. There hasn’t been a capitulation (yet).