jbenedet

I'm just feeling really grateful we are having this warmup prior to any major rainfalls. We were seriously primed for hydrological issues with the frozen ground and large/dense pack of snow and ice. Roofs were saved too. More snow and ice on top of what we had would have really stressed out some structures in my area. We dodged a major bullet in both directions.

Today through tomorrow should be a big ice killer with overnight temps staying above freezing and then rising to near 50. Break out the steel shovels...

In SNH we should get a nice sun-induced spike in temp after these low clouds pull north, and before the higher level clouds roll in from the west. Timing looks good for 12-1 ish...

The long wave pattern has persistently sucked for coastals; I think that was something that could be picked up on early, and used to forecast BN snowfall in the warmer climate zones of New England despite the clearer indications of persistent cold.

There is less than a week left in February by this weekend guys…when MJO settles in phase 1…The sun is as predictable as it gets in this space—I’ll go with March vs February here… I’d check myself if the teles were saying otherwise, but as I stated above they are saying the same thing…

I am using FMA, especially as we will be into late February at this timeframe. Probability isn’t high, so I amend that statement—more like better than equal odds of AN but high significance… Fits with @CoastalWx narrative of warm sectoring with storms and useless cold behind. I’m seeing similar. The AN’s in the warm sector will be widespread and much bigger than the BN’s behind…

Run with the EPS guidance; sell the GEFS. Seeing MJO to phase 1 within a few days across all reliable guidance, and a likely stall here. Phase 1 is high probs AN in the northeast in February…This is especially the case close to the coast. WAR flex incoming. The GEFS guidance for the NAO/AO teleconnections is also indicating AN is arriving by this weekend…spikes in both indices… Next storms we will very likely be on the warm side of; I’m really hoping this comes with some gradualness or we risk flooding.

I’ll continue to use the most recent obs, for when things are rapidly changing. Thanks.

No. light rain/freezing rain at PSM https://www.wunderground.com/weather/us/nh/portsmouth

Rain/snow line is racing up the coast. Looks like it’ll be up to cosstal NH in an hour.

Mid 30’s at least and outside shot of ~37.

It looks like a beautiful day in Boston today. Ridiculous seeing upper 20’s on the op guidance for highs. Near normal is doable this afternoon.

Yea we’ll see. The antecedent is seasonal.

It’s different story when they rip. Light east winds with no fetch; no big deal. This ain’t that.

Yes check out the euro.

It looks like plain rain even to PSM by 12z tomorrow. I still don’t understand why the guidance is so cold in eastern sections, directly down stream of these strong and persistent easterly winds.

More in Portsmouth than Portland and Augusta?! Don’t understand this map in southeastern NH.

East winds rip up to Acadia. That ain’t your mesolow CAD signal for the coast.

I think it’s pretty straight forward—-There will be a coastal front that sets up and persists somewhere from PSM to DAW and likely right over my head on down to ASH. I’m expecting a lot of 32-35F rain after 3-6” thump.

Unless you have a good surface high in south eastern Canada, you don’t get an early transfer with the best baroclinicty and vorticity to the west. It wants to bend back.

The surface temps on the GFS are ridiculous

If you pull the arctic phasing sooner - what happens? That's the risk here. I think the setup and teles promote early and clean phasing. I could see it bomb over VT/western MA.. It's a very deep system—Gulf meets arctic— and most are in the wrong part of the long wave to be on the cold side...is my guess