jbenedet

Anyone have table of seasonal Snowfall totals for a city/town in seacoast NH past 10 years?

No. That was last year and year before. That sucked in seacoast NH. Tons of white rain and mix. Great for you guys. Very touch and go around here. You really have to add +3 to climo to get a good feel on where that pattern still does really well and that’s basically a line just north/west of ASH, DAW and PWM.

Should do PSM. Fawgettabout DAW in winter.

It’s pretty much what you should expect in significant -NAO/-AO pattern which is being clearly telegraphed on guidance now.

So much confluence seeing AN surface temps showing up in eastern NH and Maine now. Without a pack in the region it’s definitely believable. I’ll happily take that over the severe cold and dry I was looking at a few days ago….

It doesn’t get better over the next two weeks— another rainer then all the confluence—-> dry What this is, is a key difference from previous years when caribou really cashed in. The biggest regional difference vs persistence of past 5 years I’d wager. My hope and expectation is this translates to an earlier start to spring. Better weather in later March and early April than in recent years.

Snowfall wise this December vs 2023, was worse for NNE better for SNE. In my hood this year was just as bad as last; though slightly colder. Region wide, generally less warmth but the much smaller pack in the north takes much less +AN to erode…The result is we are in same position as this time last year in terms of snow pack. Thinking many long range forecasters are losing to persistence at this point….

Looks like a few flakes for Boston/southeast. Radar decay look for many in eastern areas.

It’s a 1020 surface “low” pressure The system is also dampening as it traverses our region…. I think a coating will be max in the high population locations.

Stars to align for -15. Well we did it with this. On the solstice no less… https://x.com/NWS_MountHolly/status/1870729535593050436

I don’t reference DAW in winter. I can’t explain that. In summer it hasn’t been far off; it’s much better than me using PSM temps in late spring and summer. I know it still blows your mind but it’s often one of the hottest spots in the region on southwest winds. Even the guidance can pick this up, into York. So there is something else also going on that you physically haven’t been able to explain; just that the ASOS is BS.

Yea one of these patterns where you don’t much latitude because the mid level tracks are suppressed.

Merry Christmas.

The early Jan pattern —I’m seeing a number of synoptic scale parallels to the period which produced the blizzard of 96. Weenies will of course take this and run with it…but so much still has to break right for a similar outcome. Of course timing is everything but main point here is I see SNE, and especially mid Atlantic in best spot for significant snowfalls after the late December warmup.

This isn't accurate. The H500 height anoms are misleading as Canada is very warm. The PNA ridge is too far west, allowing for MP air, vs CP, despite the longwave trough developing in the eastern half of the US. MP in January isn't going to translate to cold for the mid latitudes. I'd agree in march or april, however... I will give you that the torch fades (with time) on latest guidance, but that's also with the highest uncertainty some 320 hours + out.