jbenedet

Bermuda high now on the NAM. man is this thing just dog shit or what. Clowns going down in GFS flames again.

The NAM is warmer again. 40F isotherm now up to PSM, during the heaviest precip and dews are up in the mid 30's so wet bulbin' ain't happenin'. I have a better shot of registering AN temp than accumulating snow at this point. I'm wayyy out of this one. Enjoy far interior folks...

The trend is not your friend in the marginal zones of SNE, coastal maine and NH. I'm looking for rain showers and maybe ending with white rain.

The Wednesday night clippah is looking like rain showers here. Another NNE and CNE event.

Coldologists are killin’ it. Now how do they get promoted to snowologists?

You’re changing the guidance narrative of the past 10 days to fit your opinion. Shocker. The N to BN pattern was very well advertised by guidance and most of us here didn’t bet against it. EPS, GEFS saw it weeks in advance and never lost it; in fact the signal strengthened with time. It’s the storm/snow part that you are after and you’re still missing outside of an advisory clipper.

The GEFS is misaligned with the modeled teleconnections. The -NAO and -AO disappear by first few days of December. The EPS is already picking up on what the GEFS isn’t with sharp shift to + AN by the 10th. I believe this gets pushed forward in time, especially along the coastal plain.

I keep hearing about BN; seacoast NH is already at its average high temp for the day. NWS forecast for the seacoast region looks like normal temps to close out November.

I’m talking the lakes region.

Pretty remarkable short term trend especially with such weak ridging in place off the east coast.

Only interest in this event locally is how warm PSM can get on ENE winds off the 50 degree gulf of Maine…

One of the few places where a significantly warmer regional climate translates to a lot more annual snowfall. I don’t think a lot of the people who moved to that area recently are ready for that though. Snow cover so high that blocks out your windows for weeks on end gets old. You really gotta winterize your home and mind to stay positive through that.

Zzzzzz

Yea, "closer". But what the hell is going on with these algorithms..? You look at the run and there's not 1 hour of modeled snowfall output for DAW...Similar for N ORH and yet somehow even the depth change shows 4" otg... SMH

The GFS op is the only model that develops a surface high in eastern canada for turkey day. Even the 6Z GEFS calls BS..