romba
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Everything posted by romba
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I’m hesitant to put much weight on the mesos at the end of their runs so it’s rn only the Euro showing NYC proper getting the goods. The globals, aside from the Euro, seem to be showing the surface low just east of the BM, we want that a little more tucked but I’d still think the precip shield would be a teensy bit more expansive without suppression pushing down. Euro on an island despite some west trends, I expect it to tick a little east to start to meet its buddies somewhere in the middle.
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JMA supported the Euro for a bit when it was on an island too, NAVGEM jumped aboard too if I recall, better than nothing but barely lol
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H5 Monster for next weekend. I’ll say this, I’d rather have the op GFS in my camp than the Euro, though Euro shows a storm too at least, crazy times we’re living in
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Except for this winter, smart money this year is unfortunately on the 'no snow' progs. As we saw a couple of weeks back, all the ensembles at 5-7 days, their $ range, were like SNOWWWW BOYYSSSSSS and the OPs, which are supposedly weaker that far out, all said to ef off. Guess who won
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I took the CMC on a date, and I'm sleeping with the EC. Will not marry either.
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GFS continues to show surface low popping in a good spot southeast of the city, unfortunately the mid and upper levels seem locked in as west, west and west. They haven't budged in like 36 hours so no go with this one. Was fun to track and learn
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Slight improvements on the Euro at 500 and the surface, but still too way too far west for the city/coast.
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So ideally 500, 700, 850 lows should track East for snow. Does surface lp matter or not really?
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The models like hedging their bets with the multiple lows farther out and tend to hone more on one low as it gets closer, didn't that happen with the last storm?
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I don't know enough to comment myself, but a pro right beneath him said that it was a pretty dramatic shift east implying it does matter....
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Love that, 40-50's, dare I say 60's, followed by a perfect track Miller A that produces it's own cold air and get to enjoy the snow for a few days before back unseasonably warm. Watching the temp drop from upper 50's or low 60's to mid 30's as storm time starts, and then down to low 30's as it really gets ripping is great. As opposed to the oncoming one where we'll most likely be watching it go from teens/20's to low 40's
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I think the general agreement of the operationals lends weight to them. The complicated synoptic setup apparently also gives the ensembles more difficulty, though what big storm isn't a complicated setup?
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That's the truth. Fun to track and hope but need to be level headed. I remember about 4-5 years ago the models were showing low over the lakes acting as a kicker for our potential storm. Close, but OTS about 100 miles too soon run after run. Then, just as the clock was running down, when all hope was lost (except for mjo/snow88 of course), an aircraft recon ingest at about 84 hours before the storm revealed the lakes low not to be a kicker but to actually slide under and push our storm north, and we ended up with a foot+. That was exciting to track!
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Look at that difference between EPS and GEFS! EPS seems to have caved to the operationals, though the 6Z GFS made a first move towards the GEFS. A blip? Was the new recon data ingested for 6Z? GEFS showing quite a number of unphased OTS progressive versions, wouldn't that be something!
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Could be sleet too if it stays long enough but the storm still cuts/hugs
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Difference in maps is the resolution? Algorithm? Does the bottom one show sleet as snow? Bottom seems to have been smoothed out and shows Central Jersey for example as 10-12 and top one shows it as 4-6. Pretty big difference in map totals....
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That's 12Z snowmap. 18Z:
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Thanks for posting. They seem a bit behind the operationals, but it seems that the ensemble mean is slowly shifting west as well.
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Front end thump to heavy sleet to dry slot on Euro for just West of NYC in my neck of the woods. Close to big snows, closer to a downpour. I'm down for a sleet storm, could use the workout (easy to say now) On second thought, sleet plus strong winds = power outages, count me out for that.
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Yup, we've seen it before with amped up storms. GFS and CMC show pretty frigid temps Sunday, if the storm wraps up and takes its track it will all be for naught.
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I've become a pro at spotting cognitive dissonance attempts to wishcast snow. You do never know, but sometimes you gotta read the tea leaves Snow Enthusiasts Defense Mechanism 101- A Course For Proper Weenie-ing, for the pros, by the pros. When models briefly show blizzard but switch to consistently show rain (or OTS), how do you properly cope to postpone the disappointment? We have your answers right here! -Look to the Operational if that shows snow but look to the ensembles if that shows snow. If neither shows snow anymore, please proceed to next step. -We need to wait for the first storm to pass before models will get a real handle on our storm. -That one model still shows a good hit. -Storms have trended X way at Y time, as they get closer (Where X=direction for more snow and Y=time period when X trended favorably) -Wait for better sampling. Warning: Please implement the following only in backside of winters with minimal snowfall: Models clearly are having convective issues In any case, the period following this storm seems pretty favorable, maybe we can get a nice storm out of it- that's the truth not a defense mechanism, I think lol
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So often that double barrel look is modelled but ends up overdone. Same with the models chasing convection like a teenage boy hitting puberty. Sometimes to our benefit sometimes not. Hopefully this is the former situation
