romba

Yup, for every 50+ year we have last year and this year. +sst were often cited as juicing already amped but cold coastals in the 2010's, now they're cited as a reason the Atlantic often doesn't cooperate. I love the summer and warmth, but during that first cold spell in October when you start to check out the models to see what's cooking for November, the hope is palpable. It's rough when it doesn't amount to anything. Though tracking-wise, last year was worse than this year in the sense that we had many more storms look good in the 5-7 day range (one model would tend to cling until 3-4 days giving us weenies one last breath before going under), this year we get our hopes dashed much earlier. Usually it's clear 7 days out across all the models that we're gonna rain, which is easier on the soul. Progress I guess?

The data he posted though doesn't bode well for our colder MJO phases

I know you're serious, but you have to be enjoying yourself a little bit lol

Bluewave has shown how the models have continued to underestimate the raging PAC jet in the long term which is why they tend to show tantalizing individual storms at 7+ days out that quickly fizzle. Until a threat shows at 5-7 days there's really nothing to be excited about unfortunately.

40's is meh in winter, but 60+ when you can roll the windows down is definitely enjoyable. 70 is uplifting. But a blizzard....now that is inspirational

Yup, Canadian rains to North Pole. GFS downgra…errr upgrade has really done wonders…

As expected GFS puts on a collar and admits it’s all other models’ B

The GFS is literally showing another planet's storm with how different it is from literally every other model

It ain't over yet- only once someone mentions the possibility of back end snows will the fat lady have sung her song

Man, these past few years it sure feels like whenever the models hone in on a no-snow solution, they're locked in (imby at least). hopefully the PNA goes positive (feels rare these days) and we can pull something out of it. I remember 10 or so years ago, a bunch of under 48 hours changes that went from rain to MECS/HECS. Got spoiled I guess.

Lots of mixed bag for a while near the coast then colder and snowier

Primary hanging on for dear life on EC Euro: CMC: GFS:

Have to show pretty colors it’s our tax dollars hard at work

The Total Positive Depth Change map, one of my favs, is always good for a comforting kick in balls "It counts 15:1 snow as tropical sunshine"

You're everything you complain about weenies. You pick and choose models too, just based on lowest output.

Is the forum glitching out? It's littered with:

RGEM has been steady showing a significant sleet storm for the metro

Snow or bust for them. I'm with you, sleet is a pain to clear out and while I clearly enjoy it less than snow I definitely appreciate it more than cold rain (unless I have somewhere I need to be)

This overall looks pretty significant regarding activities impacted, but hard to get a read in here...is this a grass and cartopper event for the front end and nudge and sleet, or can I assume roads will be heavily impacted where the models show a bit of snow followed by lots of sleet?

you bout to get weenie tagged pal, consider it an honor

If the sleet before the ZR sticks at all things could get real hazardous. Hopefully the ZR ends up a minimal amount

I get the stat-padder folks who want that initial snow thump to add to their totals, but for my neck of the woods it's the potentially hefty sleet amount, and whether it will accumulate or not...