Chris78

Lol. Yep. We are in a crap pattern with no signs of changing anytime soon. There probably only a 2 or 3 day window. At this point im just looking for acumalating snow. Doesnt have to be a big storm. But something would be nice. Lol.

Unlike other threats this year theres plenty of cold to our north. We just need to be able to tap some of it. Either the NS needs to speed up or the SS slow down a bit.

Exactly. The GFS has nice confluence pressing down. Its really not that far from something but the timing just seems a bit off. Hope we see some improvements with euro.

Theres pretty good confluence to the north of us. GFS is close. But if the euro/eps isnt enthused then it probably isnt happening. I mentioned a couple weeks ago IMHO how impressive the euro is and it seems it can be on an island by itself and all the other models will trend to it.

Id gladly take a middle road solution

Not a bad look imho for a week out. If there is an actual storm id be more concerned about it cutting, not suppression.

Is there a particular time frame the gefs is keying on?

That's a crazy gradient. My house in the 90% plus. If i drive 40 miles east it drops to under 20

Law of averages would argue something has to go right for us eventually? Nah who am I kidding lol

Pretty good consensus

Gfs and gem let confluence win out initially. That's the last worry on my mind lol. This is probably the best look weve had so far this winter.

Looks like to much of a good thing on the gem with confluence pressing down and squashing the storm. Honestly it feels pretty good talking about too much confluence rather than never ending storm tracks to our nw. Im certainly not worried at this point that if there is an actual storm that its a southern slider.

GFS ,Icon and Gem all have a bowling ball getting ready to traverse the deep south in about 4 days.

Gfs wants to try again a couple days later.

Ill take my chances with that look. It definitely gives us wiggleroom.

Gfs will probably be a southern slider but love the look a week out. With the gfs modeling the cold push too strong out in time im good with this.

I might have to drive the 3 miles to the top of route 77 to see whats going on tomorrow morning.My house is about 750 ft in elevation. Top of 77 is around 1200 ft. Theres been times over the years ive left thurmont and its raining, coming over the catoctins theres several inches then back to rain when I get into Smithsburg.

That's a great look for a week out. With every cold shot backing off as we close in we need congrats Atlanta to have a shot.

Gives me 4 inches in a 3 hour period. That would be something.

Damn. The name twins give my house 3 inches between 7 am and 10 am tomorrow. The herpderps also but to a lesser extent. No other model has it so im sure its happening lol.

That's right on top of me. Lol. Believe it when I see it. Would be a nice surprise.

Sorry to hear that Mappy. Sending positive thoughts and prayers your way.

That's an awesome pic. Your house could be used for post cards. Beautiful house.

Im ussually optimistic and generally dont look past about 10 days but ive resigned myself to the fact that my yard isnt going to see anymore snow this winter. Ive lived in smithsburg for about 20 years now and we have not had a winter this snowless. Each and every time the models give us a glimmer of hope it quickly turns into a flaming pile of dog s#*t. It Is what it is this year. I am about 5 miles from the pa border with an elevation of around 750ft and im at 5" for the season. That would be the lowest seasonal total for me since moving here.

At some point law of,averages would say something breaks our way.