Chris78

As you like to say we're at the cross roads 3 days out. Do we get the north trend or the ussual which is the opposite of what we need lol?

Goes south

Ukie says no thanks

What a crappy model

Canadian snows on us.

And neither gives us any snow lol

Icon is way north. Rain way up into PA

12z euro AI is even more suppressed lol.

Definitely says the OP is a further norther and warmer outlier

Not sure how much of the Aigfs is snow but if that's all rain with that track and the cold we've had for weeks that would be a he'll of a gut punch

Seems like I- 81 corridor might be the best place to be but even there it's gonna must likely flip. Of course an outcome like the Icon and its rain for everyone well up into the North East. 06z GEFS illustrates the snow chances the further NW you go

I hate to interrupt PSU and Chucks ongoing dissertation but the Ukie snows on us at the end of its run. Looks like it would be a snow to rain situation but looked like a thump was happening at hour 168

If precip makes it far enough north you guys should be in good shape up there. We're gonna need a perfect track down here and it might still not be enough.

Definitely threading the needle. It would need a perfect track to have a portion of the storm as snow. Imo

Do you think the Euro OP would of started as snow? It's about 6 to 12 hours quicker compared to 12z which may of helped.