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winterwx21

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Everything posted by winterwx21

  1. winterwx21
    Actually several of the 12z models are showing 2 inches of snow just a little west of the city on monday.
  2. winterwx21
    GGEM and UKMET are similar to this. It seems as if it might be a little too warm, but several models are insisting that we'll see a 1 to 2 inch snow event here monday.
  3. winterwx21
    Despite all the talk of an overall milder pattern moving in, I wonder if we can sneak in a thread the needle snow event late next week with that little shot of cold air. Models do look interesting.
  4. winterwx21
    What about those radar echoes in eastern PA, moving into Hunterdon county NJ? Do you think that will swing through in the next few hours? To me it looks as if it might. We got 1 inch here too. Hoping for a little more.
  5. winterwx21
    Continues to be a snow/sleet mix. As others have said, the borderline soundings indicate that we could go back and forth between snow and sleet. We're right on the edge here. We should continue to accumulate some. And of course sleet does accumulate and count in the snow totals. So far we have 3.5" here.
  6. winterwx21
    A little bit of sleet mixing with the snow here now. Still much more snow than sleet. Probably going to be a snow/sleet mix the next few hours, which should still accumulate at a decent rate.
  7. winterwx21
    We're already closing in on 3 inches here. Depending on how quickly it mixes, to me it looks as if we can get anywhere from 4 to 6 with this first batch. That would be in line with the forecast. And yes, we can add an inch or two tonight and tomorrow from the off and on lighter snows. Looking like a very nice event overall.
  8. winterwx21
    18z NAM Kuchera is pretty much a 6 inch thump for everyone tomorrow. North Jersey, Central Jersey, NYC and LI. Nice run.
  9. winterwx21
    12z Euro not using ratios (just going standard 10:1) is a 4 to 8 inch snowfall for the tri-state. Heaviest amounts middle of the area (central NJ jackpot), with lighter amounts well north and well south. About 6 for NYC. With ratios, maybe we go slightly higher than these amounts.
  10. winterwx21
    The thump of snow thursday on the Euro is heaviest just south of NYC. The 5 to 6 inches goes across central NJ. Euro does give NYC 3 to 4 inches from the thursday thump, on the northern edge of the heavier snow. Euro does still get NYC to 6 inches though, with ligher accumulating snows going through friday. So for NYC on the Euro, 3 to 4 inches from the thump and then a couple inches from the prolonged lighter snow that goes through friday. So still a very nice 6 inch storm for NYC on the Euro, but the jackpot 8 inch amounts are central NJ. Monmouth Couty could do very well with this.
  11. winterwx21
    12z UKMET showing a nice 6 inch snowstorm for NYC. A few inches from the thursday thump, and a few inches from the prolonged lighter snow that lasts into friday.
  12. winterwx21
    Looks as if the new Euro just coming in is going with the longer duration snow event scenario. The first wave thursday gives heavier snow just to our south. A lot for central/southern Jersey. But the snow is reloading for thursday night ... accumulating snow still going on here into early friday morning. Despite the heaviest of the first wave thursday going just to our south, we still end up getting a good 6 inches up here due to the lighter snow continuing into friday morning.
  13. winterwx21
    The GGEM actually has the snow picking back up friday night. I know this isn't one of the better models, so I don't know how likely this is.
  14. winterwx21
    I watched the color loop on this site. It always comes out early on this site. You just hit animate and you can watch the color loop. First 48 hours it's the RGEM, and then it switches over to GGEM. You just hit animate. It's a nice tool. It's just like watching the futurecast that you see on TV, only it's the Canadian models instead... https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
  15. winterwx21
    GGEM is showing a significant thump of snow before going over to sleet. Very cold ... even the south coast of NJ gets a few hours of snow before mixing. Gotta like that we have a VERY cold airmass in place for this storm.
  16. winterwx21
    At least thursday's storm is looking pretty good right now. Hopefully it won't trend warmer as we get closer. A nice 6 inch snowstorm like EURO is showing would get NYC to about 40 inches for the season. That would be terrific.
  17. winterwx21
    Ice is beautiful. It's a spectacular nature scene when everything is coated with sparkling ice, so some weather enthusiasts are going to root for it even though it causes problems. But this storm could easily be more of a sleet/snow situation like 12z UKMET is showing, rather than freezing rain. Or plain rain like GGEM is showing. A lot of possible solutions and obviously way too early to know.
  18. winterwx21
    12z UKMET does give snow. The snow maps on pivoltalweather are high quality and don't count sleet as snow. 12z UKMET is giving us over 6 inches of snow.
  19. winterwx21
    I see 12z UKMET is giving us a lot of snow monday night into tuesday. Just another solution in this difficult setup. Anything from rain to snow to a lot of ice is possible.
  20. winterwx21
    I guess I'm in the minority but I love ice. I don't think there's a more beautiful scene than having trees coated with sparkling ice. It looks spectacular.
  21. winterwx21
    Looks as if Euro does give us several inches of snow before changing to ice tuesday. Obviously a long way to go with this one.
  22. winterwx21
    It looks as if UKMET is the only model giving us a couple inches of snow sunday. Hopefully it's right, but obviously ice looks more likely right now since most other models are showing that.
  23. winterwx21
    I see UKMET gives us a couple inches of snow sunday morning. I wonder if that's a decent possibility, or if it's much more likely to be ice.
  24. winterwx21
    18z NAM gets 3 inches up to north-central NJ. I think the winter weather advisories need to be extended up to Hunterdon, Somerset and Middlesex counties.
  25. winterwx21
    The Euro is now showing 2 to 3 inches up to our area now too. Since a good 2 to 3 inches of snow looks likely now, I would think the winter weather advisories will be extended north to north-central NJ and the NYC area later this afternoon.
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