winterwx21
-
Posts
5,888 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by winterwx21
-
Good to see the Euro increase the precip amounts a little. Good chance we get 4 to 5 here. I'll go with a guess of 4.5" for my location.
-
Yeah that was a reason why I slept easy as well and didn't wake up early. I would have woken up early today if I was worried, but I've been very confident that this is going to be an all snow event.
-
Yeah it's a shame the RGEM gave so many people anxiety. When 1 model has a radically different opinion than every other model, obviously it's extremely likely that it's wrong. Horrible performance by the RGEM. I hope it's embarrassed.
-
Haha. I was up late last night looking at the Euro, so I decided to sleep late today. Definitely will get up much earlier tomorrow.
-
Just woke up late on a Saturday and am catching up on the models. Great to see the RGEM finally coming to its senses and correcting! NAM models nice and cold. I continue to like a 3 to 5 inch forecast for my area.
-
Hilarious.
-
Not just the NAM. Euro and UKMET have been showing this type of solution too. Still a ways to go though ... obviously nothing is for sure.
-
NAM 3km nice and cold with a nice 3 to 4 inch snowfall. Euro and UKMET have been locked in with this type of solution too. I think this outcome is most likely. GFS is probably overdone and RGEM is off its rocker.
-
Good to see the NAM coming in colder. Hopefully RGEM will start correcting tonight.
-
So much evidence that the RGEM is way overdone. Hopefully it will start correcting on the 18z run.
-
Focus on the UKMET run that just came out, lol. Pretty much perfect for snow for the entire area. Hopefully Euro will continue to look good in an hour as well.
-
Yes so you agree with the point that I made. The NAM being so flat could be a sign that the RGEM is over amped.
-
True. It's likely that both the RGEM and NAM will be embarrassed.
-
Yeah a middle ground solution still seems most likely, which would be good for our area.
-
Haha. Yeah, either one. Either the NAM or RGEM is gonna be embarrassed here.
-
But that's my point. The fact that the historically over amped NAM isn't over amped right now could be a sign that the RGEM is way off and rain isn't as much of a concern.
-
I would think the NAM being so much less amped is a good sign that the RGEM is off with being so amped, so to me that's good news.
-
He lives on Long Island where an event like this is more borderline, so there's reason to be cautious.
-
Yeah that's true. That's the best thing to do, but I don't see a problem with posting Kuchera maps since they help at least somewhat. For many of our events they've been closer to reality when they've showed very good or very poor snow ratios.
-
There's a lot of debate among meteorologists about it. At least Kuchera takes something into account while 10:1 takes nothing into account. The Kuchera maps are far from perfect but they help in situations in which you're going to be better or worse than 10:1 ratio.
-
Even if the other models slowly trend towards the RGEM, I would think our area is far enough to the NW to be ok. That would be more of a problem for the coast. The RGEM would have to be competely right for our area to have a problem. We have enough wiggle room on the other models. But as I said, you never know for sure. We're not completely out of the woods.
-
The cold air push looks too strong for the snow event to make it up here on Wednesday. CMC is probably wrong on that.
-
ICON is a decent hit for the NYC area. If we get a compromise between the ampted RGEM and suppressed NAM we'll be looking good. Still hard to believe that the RGEM will be right since it is all alone, but you never know for sure.
-
I'd be happy with the ICON solution too. 3 inches would seem like a pretty good event after all the half inch to 1 inch events we've had this winter.
-
Yeah long range NAM is terrible, but the fact that it's THAT far out to sea is a pretty good hint that the RGEM is way off. I'm not gonna worry about the Canadian models since they're alone with a wildly different solution than all other models.
