winterwx21

Heavy wind-driven snow. Neat little squall developed along the back edge of the band of snow showers. Looks like a blizzard out there and even the road is covered.

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's getting dark

Moderate snow here now that's coating the pavement. Temp is down to 25 now so it's sticking more easily than the snow that we had earlier.

Snow is picking up here right now. On radar it looks like we're gonna have 2 pretty good lines of snow showers with moderate snow. Maybe we can pick up a half inch with this.

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

NAM output is best cut by half or even two thirds.

 

Yep. There were a couple NAM runs yesterday that gave me 5 inches for today's storm. It's a crazy overhype model that waffles back and forth. Can't trust it at all these days. RGEM is much better.

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Its been terrible out here. Especially for the blizzard. 

For the blizzard there were some crazy NAM runs that gave over 3 feet of snow for Long Island. Way overdone. I remember the RGEM was showing closer to 20 inches out on Long Island which ended up being more accurate than what NAM showed.

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Rgem has been terrible most of the winter 

LOL. Everyone here has talked about how great RGEM has been this winter. It has blown away the NAM. Not sure what you've been looking at if you think RGEM has been bad. The GGEM has also been excellent. Everyone has been talking about how good the Canadian models have been this winter.

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Many models had LI getting nothing to an inch. 

As usual the RGEM did a good job. It showed much less at the coast and also the period of heavy snow west of the city after the changeover being very brief.

It looked promising for awhile with the early changeover and snow coming down heavily. But SnowGoose69 was right about the precip drying up quickly after the changeover due to the northwest flow. At least I got 1 inch here. Can't complain about accumulating snow in March. Looks nice out there.

30 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Still sleeting and back edge racing 

I have 1 inch of snow here in Piscataway, but now it's down to very light snow and radar doesn't look very good. I know Snowgoose brought up the point of the snow drying up quickly after the changeover due to the northwest flow, and it looks as if that is the case. Just gonna be some light snow during the afternoon to add less than a half inch more.

Obviously a few miles makes a difference with this too since you had more sleet while I was snow here. I drove to Edison to La Bon Bakery to get my saturday dessert, and there it was mostly sleet. Then driving home it was back to snow as I hit South Plainfield and Piscataway. I was just on the right side to get an inch of snow, so I can't complain. Beautiful here with the inch of wet snow.

Moderate snow here. Already a solid coating. Down to 33 and it's even starting to dust the pavement.

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

HRRR says a lot of mixing in the city until 1 pm and then things dry up, still not feeling great about this near the coast but we'll see...... 

14z run of HRRR was significantly improved over the 13z run. Now gets a couple inches into NYC. Makes more sense given the early changeover.

Heavy snow here with a little sleet mixed in. I see the 14z run of the HRRR increased amounts a little. Back to showing 3 inches for my area, which makes sense given the earlier changeover.

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem and Nam has not liked this event at all

0z RGEM was a little better though. The 0z run gives my area (just slightly west of NYC) close to 3 inches. Better than the 1 inch that the 18z run had. A little more snow for NYC too ... looks like 1 to 2 inches compared to barely an inch on the 18z run. At least it's slightly better.

NYC is a tough call since it's gonna be near the edge of the more significant snow. Euro and HRRR are saying NYC gets several inches, but the latest NAM and previous RGEM runs say only about an inch. The new RGEM comes out shortly, so we'll see if it increases amounts.

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Big win if there's 1-3 that's for sure. I'm concerned the RGEM shows nothing.     Some bad luck with this system and the last with them being centered around mid-day vs overnight.

Don't know if I would say RGEM has nothing. It has less than other models, but it does get about 1 inch to NYC. I have a feeling it will increase the amounts on the next couple runs. I love the RGEM but there are too many other models showing that this has a good chance of giving NYC at least a couple inches. I'm less concerned about the midday issue this time too because true arctic air will be rushing in.

WWAs definitely need to be expanded way to the southeast. With arctic air pouring in, roads will become slippery. Much different from the last event where it was a struggle to accumulate even on colder surfaces. I think I'd go with a 1 to 3 inch forecast for my area, but we can hope models like Euro and HRRR are correct about getting a little more than that.

It's 61 degrees here right now. As usual temps went a few degrees above forecast. Absolutely beautiful outside, but I'm also looking forward to the snow tomorrow.

18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Models were too warm here at the end just like last event. In the cold areas of LI at least it was able to get down to 32 overnight, where it stayed as the snow moved in. Models predicted 36-37 and a change to rain. That made the difference. Unfortunately the city and immediate/south shore didn’t cool down overnight as much and couldn’t evap cool very much, so it was rain or snow that didn’t accumulate much. 

And remember last night I mentioned that the RGEM came in warmer and showed a rain/snow mix for north-central NJ and NYC with little to no accumulation. It was correct about having to go northwest to see much accumulation. NAM on the other hand was way off with the idea of significant snow accumulations for this area. Yet again the RGEM outperformed the NAM. We saw that several times this winter. It is really a much better model than NAM. And the CMC was the first model to pick up on this storm hitting us several days ago. These Canadian models have been excellent this winter. I trust the CMC even more than the Euro these days for longer range threats, and then the RGEM does a good job with the details when you get close to the event.

Had a rain/sleet combo for awhile, but now it switched over to heavy wet snow with huge flakes. Starting to dust the ground a little now.

Snow finally starting to mix in. Rain/snow mix.

RGEM just came in much warmer than NAM and HRRR. It has quite a bit of rain and rain/snow mix for NYC, and you'd have to go northwest to see accumulations on this run. Probably underdone like NAM is overdone, but can't rule out this possibility either. March storms are unpredictable and it will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Named

Yep but I think most of us agree that NAM is very likely overdone. Can't completely rule out the possibility of a 4 to 6 inch snowfall like 0z NAM is showing, but the chance of that happening is very slim. 0z HRRR looks much more reasonable. I would go with a coating to 2 inches on colder surfaces for most of the area, with some 3 to 4 inch amounts in northern NJ. Which is pretty much what 0z HRRR Kuchera is showing. Of course the Kuchera maps need to be used in this case because they take into account the fact that snow ratios will be much worse than 10:1.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

This was supposed to be a cold month.  What happened?

That was quite awhile ago (back in February) that March was looking colder. We know long range is not very accurate. For the last week we've known that March is going to be a mild month. But of course that doesn't mean we can't sneak in a snow event. Hopefully that will happen on wednesday.

18z RGEM really has the snow coming down heavily for awhile wednesday. Obviously gonna need those heavy rates to overcome the borderline temps. RGEM would give us a few inches on colder surfaces.

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Well the HRRR sure looks good Wed 12-18Z if you want snow but as we know not trustworthy at this range

Although the HRRR absolutely nailed the February snow event 48 hours in advance. We can certainly hope for a repeat.