winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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Hopefully we can get a real thump like this Ukie run shows, unlike what happened this morning.
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CMC and UKMET are nice hits for Tuesday as well. This looks like by far our best threat of the winter, but obviously 5 days out is a long way to go when talking about a winter storm threat.
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0.4" of snow/sleet here, obviously mostly sleet. When I woke up at 5:30 and heard the pinging, I said NAM for the win lol. As SnowGoose and others pointed out, we didn't get the early thump to overcome the mid level warming that was coming in. Too bad, but still a pretty good impact with all the sleet.
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The Euro is nice for Tuesday. A nice solid 6 inch snowstorm. I think most of us would sign for that.
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Latest HRRR and Euro give northern NJ a few inches with 1 to 2 for our area. Things seem on track. This is a weather board filled with snow lovers. Even an inch or two is interesting to most of us. I think 1 to 2 is most likely, but there's always the slight chance that the NAM models will be right about this being a non event. We'll find out in a little while. This event is just the appetizer anyway with the next 2 (Saturday and Tuesday) looking more significant.
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And tonight's GFS and CMC are showing that more significant thump Saturday night. This one has the potential to be several inches.
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RGEM is 1 to 2. We knew that 3 was about the best case scenario for this event. Those runs showing 3 were probably a little overdone while the NAM models are likely underdone. 1 to 2 looks like a good call. I'm still optimistic that we can get 2. Looks like a decent thump.
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Hopefully the NAM models are wrong. Seems as if most models are giving us a few inches now. I'm becoming more excited about tomorrow morning.
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I was just taking a close look at it on the hour by hour color loop. RGEM shows a burst of heavy snow for a couple hours before it changes to the mix. Just as the sleet is about to take over, dynamics take over with the heavy precip to delay the mixing. Who knows if that's right, but it shows a good thump of snow.
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0z RGEM looks really good like the HRRR. Walt mentioned that those models tend to run a little warm, so hopefully those colder solutions are a good sign. Would like to believe we're going to get a few inches like those models show, but who knows. Still a very tough call as far as snow vs sleet.
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HRRR hasn't been great this winter. Let's hope this is an event that it's right about, but obviously we should be skeptical. This is long range for the HRRR too.
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Yeah they're showing snow now, but it's so close that we shouldn't be too optimistic yet. Tomorrow's model runs are the ones that will tell the story. Could go either way as far as getting a couple inches of snow or mostly sleet before it eventually changes to rain.
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Good to see some of the models showing a bit of a thump. Hopefully HRRR and GFS have a clue and we can get a couple inches before sleet, but I know there's the risk of it ending up more sleet. Very close call that we probably won't have a better idea on until late tomorrow. Even if it ends up being mostly sleet, that certainly beats freezing rain or rain. Glad this is looking like a decent winter weather threat.
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Euro just came in nice with 2 to 3 inches for our area. As Allsnow said it will come down to how quickly the mid level warming comes in. It'll be awhile before we figure out if we're going to pull off a couple inches of snow or if it'll be more sleet.
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Mid 40s feels good out there today. I'm going hunting this afternoon for the last time this season. Gonna be a nice afternoon to be out there.
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Some big snowflakes mixed in with the sleet under the bright echoes here.
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Yeah those bright radar echoes are mostly sleet. Oh well. At least we got a nice half inch coating of snow out there.
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Yeah we'll have to see if those heavy echoes to the west are sleet or snow.
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Looks like we could get a snow squall.
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Except the RGEM. That model has consistently showing an inch or so of snow for this area. Looks like RGEM for the win on this one. Nice to see it snowing out there with everything coated.
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Still just 29 degrees here. Temp isn't going anywhere near forecast today because it's cloudy.
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CMC looks good for next weekend's potential storm, but of course we're talking a week away. First we have to figure out what's gonna happen Wednesday. I don't care if they are front end type of storms ... I'm just glad we have interesting times ahead with the potential of getting a decent amount of snow in February. It beats very cold and dry.
