winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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A dusting here as light snow continues. Hopefully we can at least get an inch.
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NAM 3km cut NYC down to 1 inch. Looks as if the HRRR was onto something, but at least we're getting some snow. Will keep watching radar of course. Not completely out of the question that we can pull off 2 inches, but it isn't looking as good now.
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And it cut way back for NYC. HRRR was a good warning that NAM was overdone, even though some of those HRRR runs went too far in keeping all the snow to the south.
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Yep. Those HRRR runs that went way south and gave us nothing were off, but they were also a sign that the very bullish NAM runs were overdone. Looks like a compromise. I'm now thinking our area is just gonna get just around an inch.
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The 20z run still only gives us a dusting. Crazy if it's gonna be this far off. We're only several hours away from the start of the event, so it's not as if it's long range for the HRRR. It's going to be an embarrassment for that model to miss this badly if it's wrong.
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17z HRRR run gave us only a dusting, lol. I assume it's out to lunch and will start waking up the next few runs, but you never know for sure. It could be right about our area getting almost nothing just as a surprise 4 or 5 inches could happen, but most likely a middle ground will happen. I like 2 inches for my area.
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HRRR continues to look awful ... 16z run doesn't even get a half inch up to our area. Obviously HRRR is an outlier though and I wouldn't put much stock in it. I agree with SnowGoose though that we shouldn't put much stock in the terrible NAM model too. Probably overdone. Most other models (including 12z Euro just out) get close to 2 inches up to our area, so that isn't too bad. 2 inches still looks most likely for our area, so 1 to 3 continues to be a good call.
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HRRR went south on the 0z run. Only gets a coating up to our area. Hopefully it's off. That model has not been great this winter.
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Ukie not bad on the 18z run too. Gets 2 inches about up to our area. Everything seems on track for a 1 to 3 inch snowfall. I hope to see the HRRR start bumping north on the 0z run.
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Looks like a cold pattern for awhile after the weekend rain. Hopefully that cold air will set us up for some snow. Long range so who knows.
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Pretty much everything is showing 1 to 2 right now, except for the slightly more bullish NAM that shows a few inches. Still enough time for a north bump, but right now 1 to 3 looks like a good forecast. Maybe another inch or two Wednesday night before the mixing. This is the winter of numerous light snowfalls. Wish we could get a bigger snowstorm, but at least this beats a warm winter with almost no snow. Appears we're at least gonna nickel and dime our way to 20 inches for the winter which isn't terrible. Still hoping we get lucky with a bigger storm late month though.
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Euro just came north slightly. Pretty much every model tonight is giving our area close to 2 inches, so 1 to 3 looks like a good call right now. Hopefully tomorrow we'll get a slight north bump so we can up it to 2 to 4.
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We don't need a big shift to get into 3 to 6 though, just as a small shift can leave us with almost nothing. Still enough time. At least right now if the models hold we'll get a couple inches Tuesday night. It was good to see the GFS shift north.
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It will likely go to rain. RGEM only goes out to hour 84. At that point it's showing sleet, but it would likely change to rain shortly after that.
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That was some shoveling job. The inch and a half felt like 6 inches, and I had to chop to get under a lot of it. And the stuff from the plows up against the curb was extremely heavy. I got soaked with sweat just like I had gone for a run, lol. I enjoyed the work though.
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1.5" here. A lot of that accumulation is sleet. Wish we got more snow, but I gladly take it. Glad I will be able to shovel in the morning.
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Had some freezing rain mix in when the precip lightened up. Now back to heavy sleet.
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We haven't had any freezing rain yet here. VERY heavy sleet right now. 1 inch on the ground out there. More sleet than snow. A significant impact when you get this much sleet accumulation.
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Heavy snow now with a little sleet mixed in.
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I hope we get a bigger event at some point so we can end up at near average snowfall, but if that doesn't happen it at least appears we'll be able to nickel and dime our way to 20 inches. Below average but not terrible.
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I think it's too early to call it over. I don't think it will trend far enough north to give us a big snowstorm, but a few inches is certainly possible.
