winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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12z HRRR has almost nothing for today and tonight, while 3km NAM has heavy activity tonight but keeps it to the north of this area until after fireworks time. Who knows, but hopefully cookouts and fireworks will be ok for most of the tri-state. Happy July 4th!
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Yeah and GFS doesn't have good timing too. Some other models look better though, so who knows. At least we're not looking at widespread activity, so I wouldn't cancel any plans. Hopefully it will be ok for most of the area. Usually I root for storms, but of course the 4th is a rare day in which I don't want them.
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Another great day with temps in the 80s and very dry with dew points in the 50s. I wish this perfect weather could continue tomorrow for the 4th (my favorite holiday), but it doesn't look too bad. I see 12z runs of NAM 3km and HRRR have pretty much nothing for our area through fireworks time, and RGEM has only isolated activity. Looks like a good chance that we'll be ok for cookouts and fireworks, but will keep an eye on radar just in case. I hope everyone here has a great holiday!
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80 degrees with a dew point of 56 here. I'm leaving now to do some hiking this afternoon. Just perfect summer weather for outdoor activities.
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Yeah that's the way it looks. Hopefully we can get anything significant to hold off until Friday night into Saturday so that we can have a couple mostly dry days for cookouts and fireworks. Models still not showing much for the 4th ... just isolated activity and it's possible it could hold off until night or stay to the south and west. Hopefully it won't get any worse as we get closer.
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It has been a nice turnaround with 3 good rain events over the last couple weeks. The lawns are greening back up and the gardens are happy.
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I got 1.98" from the storms. Great event!
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It's awesome!! I'm already up to 1 inch. Might get close to 2 inches out of this here.
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Coming down in buckets. Gonna get a ton of rain here based on the way radar looks.
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Starting to pour here again. At least we'll do very well in the rainfall department.
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LOL you can't even keep track of your trolling. A few weeks ago you said you wanted the fun parts of climate change like the extremely severe storms they got in Texas. You're funny.
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I got a quick 0.28" from that downpour. Like you said more to the west, so we should end up getting a good amount of rain. The severe t-storm warning sure was a bust though. Very weak other than the downpour.
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VERY heavy downpour here, but that's about it. I was surprised about the lack of wind. Just breezy, but the main thing is I'm getting the heavy rain I wanted.
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Yeah at least there's more forming to the west if this storm that's about to hit the extreme northern part of Middlesex county misses you.
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Yep and it looks as if I will get clipped by the southern part of that storm.
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It's gonna be really close for you. Looks as if that storm will clip me here in the extreme northern part of the county, but not sure it will get down to you. Very close call.
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Yeah it does look good for our area. That storm moving into Somerset is sinking enough to the south. I'm excited.
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I see another cell just popped up behind that storm. Also watching the activity a little further to the south that will be moving into southern Hunterdon. That could make it to Middlesex as well, but might miss just to our south. Hopefully it won't be a case of storms missing just a few miles to the north and few miles to the south, but we'll see. It's going to be close.
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That warned cell in Hunterdon is going to be close for our area. Definitely has a little bit of a southerly component to it. It might get down to northern Middlesex ... keeping my fingers crossed.
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Yeah we won't completely clear out, but at least we'll have breaks. Some cells starting to pop up further to the south in PA. We should have a decent shot at seeing something later today, but obviously it's far from a guarantee.
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Yep that's correct.
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Yeah it's a very close call whether our area will clear out. Northern NJ clearing out but central NJ looks to stay pretty cloudy. We're near the edge.
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It's annoying how wildly inconsistent the HRRR is.
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It does feel strange to have such a big severe weather threat on day that's completely overcast. Hopefully it won't hurt chances for our area.
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I picked up 0.24" last night. Was happy to get that to water the garden just in case this afternoon doesn't work out, but the threat looks very good. The one thing we have going against us is it's cloudy, but obviously we still have a ton of fuel for the storms. Hopefully we'll see something nice.
