winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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I see GFS on the 12z run now is giving us very little rain for late week. Not that I buy that. It does appear that most of the rain is going to miss us to the west on Wednesday, but there should be plenty of heavy downpours around Thursday and Friday. Especially Friday ... that looks like our best chance.
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I went for a run after the Mets game ended, and that breeze along with the dewpoint down at 66 made it feel pretty good for running despite a temp of 93. So much better today than the last few days, but of course we'll be going back to the super high humidity during the week.
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93 with a dew point of 65 here right now.
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And then you have 12z Euro which is very dry. Very little rain all next week on the Euro. Maybe a compromise between the dry Euro and wet GFS will happen. With all the humidity, I would think there would be at least scattered downpours with some areas getting 1 to 2 inches of rain.
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Dew point is down to 65 here. Feels pretty good compared to what we had the last few days. Storm chances look low today through Tuesday, but I'm sure there will be a few pop ups. Hopefully we'll get heavy amounts of rain later in the week as we get moisture from Beryl.
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Wow. Odd that the dew point here is 73. So many other areas are upper 70s to around 80.
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93 with a dew point of 74 here right now. The .42" I got Thursday night is the only rain I've had here this week. Will have to water a lot the next few days. Hoping we see a more widespread event mid to late week with moisture from Beryl.
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I had a few sprinkles here. I see that cell is going a little more south. Appears to be missing you too.
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It looks like that downpour in Somerset is going to miss me just to the south but might hit you. It's going to be close.
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Yeah a pretty good downpour moving into Somerset County right now.
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And I see the latest models do have a few pop ups for this afternoon. Probably will be a few areas that get lucky.
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Nothing here. Missed me again. It has been feast or famine in the rainfall department for the Tri-State in recent weeks. Some areas have done much better in recent weeks while others have gotten very little. We'll see if we can get more widespread heavy rains late next week from Beryl's remnants. Tomorrow and Monday we're going to see a slight humidity drop. Dew points will be going down to the low-mid 60s. Probably going to be dry those days. Hopefully a decent soaking coming for late Tuesday.
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Yep the nature of summer storms. Just a few miles makes the difference between getting a good soaking or getting nothing. At least I got a decent amount of rain last night.
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Yep I just missed out. Only a light shower here. Blew up just to the east as it hit a little sea breeze front.
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Just a shower here now. The heavier downpours are going to my south in central Middlesex County.
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Yeah that's a good point. It's a real struggle for the cells to survive very long. We do have a shot at seeing a brief shower or downpour over the next hour or two though with the activity in southern Hunterdon getting ready to move into Somerset, or possibly another cell or two popping up near our area.
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Not a lot of activity, but some small cells moving into southern Hunterdon could hit our area in a little while.
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Yep. As Jm1220 mentioned, Beryl remnants is the reason why this Euro run is showing a ton of rain for us mid to late week. Previous Euro runs and other current models are not showing this, so I wouldn't bite on lots of rain mid to late week yet. Just something to keep an eye on. Yeah tomorrow went from looking like a stormy day to now maybe just an isolated storm. Now I'm glad we got the rain last night since there's a chance we won't see anything the next several days. Slight chance of a storm this afternoon. Having another cookout so will keep an eye on radar.
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Also most model runs backed off on the stormy weather for next week too. Right now they're showing some showers for Tuesday night and that's about it. I do think we'll have at least slight storm chances off and on due to the high humidity, but it might not be the big wet pattern that some were advertising. I do see that the Euro just came in stormy for Wednesday into Thursday next week, which is a change and is different than the other models.
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Ended up being not too impressive. Looked great on radar as it was heading into western NJ, but it really weakened. Mostly light to moderate rain, but I did get a very narrow line of heavy rain. It poured for about 3 minutes. I ended up getting 0.42" tonight. The HRRR deserves to be criticized for not picking up on the activity until the last minute, but the 3km NAM was much worse. I mean the 18z run had some areas getting 6 to 9 inches of rain, LOL. That model was totally off its rocker. The HRRR was bad, but the 3km NAM was INSANE with the amounts it was predicting. Anyway it worked out ok here. The rain held off until almost 10 so I was able to get all the fireworks in, and then the garden got a decent soaking. Glad I won't have to water tomorrow.
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Storms still far enough away that there's time to light off some stuff here. Will get some in at least. Heading back outside.
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That model has become a disaster. Sad because HRRR is supposed to be a highly skilled short range model that we can count on. Hopefully it can be replaced with something better eventually. At least the different model runs that showed some pop ups during the afternoon were wrong. That's one thing HRRR got right at least. It was completely quiet for all of NJ until that little downpour that hit your area popped up a little before 8pm. It went very well for cookouts, but unfortunately not looking good for fireworks tonight. Sucks because we had absolutely perfect weather the last 3 days. Terrible timing.
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I was planning on lighting off my own fireworks here tonight, but will cancel it and try again tomorrow night instead if these storms in eastern PA appear to be getting too close. Not looking good. A lot of people lighting off stuff now even though it's not dark. I did do some during the afternoon.
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Yeah looks like some storms are coming. I'm glad we got through our cookout without a problem. That downpour that popped up and is hitting our friend Allsnow missed me to the south. The storms getting ready to hit western NJ appear to be on track to hit our area close to fireworks time unfortunately. NAM 3km was overdone but HRRR was underdone.
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And this 3km NAM run is already wrong. It had some heavy storms in NJ at this time, but there's absolutely nothing. I'm glad it's going well for cookouts. Will have to see if we have some activity later on for fireworks time. Probably will be some, but I think HRRR is going to be much closer to reality than the wildly overdone 3km NAM.
