winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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Nice that you got lucky. You just got into the edge of the more significant rain there in the eastern part of the County.
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Horrible. I did manage to get 0.24" this morning, which was just enough to water the garden. But what a bust for our area and a lot of New Jersey. I'm glad areas to the east that really needed the rain got hit, but this was very disappointing. For our area to not even get a half inch for the whole week is terrible considering all the potential the week had with the PWATS and forecasts for heavy rain. Really a shame that we didn't get the type of rain we needed before the big heat wave. Could be a few pop ups tomorrow, but I won't get my hopes up on that one. Maybe we'll actually have a decent severe threat late Wednesday since we'll actually have a good cold front breaking a heat wave for a change. We'll see, but for now very disappointed. We've had so many useless high humidity days that didn't yield storms so this summer, so I'm looking forward to the nice break in the humidity that we're gonna get for late week into next weekend. That'll be a nice change.
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Both NAM models went nuts for early tomorrow morning. It would be great to make up for the disappointing week with a deluge tomorrow morning, but who knows. HRRR has a decent batch of rain but nothing like the NAM models. I don't trust those overhyping NAM models, but I don't trust the inconsistent HRRR too. It'll be interesting to see what happens, but I'll be very irritated if we don't at least get a decent half inch soaking. We really need some rain before the big heat wave.
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At this point I'd be very happy to get a half inch tomorrow morning to give my vegetable garden a much-needed watering. HRRR on the 0z run is still giving us a pretty good batch of rain for early in the morning. Late tonight into early morning continues to look like our best chance of the week, but this week has been such a disappointment. It certainly wouldn't be a surprise if tomorrow morning disappoints as well.
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Yeah both NAM models are bad. HRRR is bad. Who knows. All we can do it keep an eye on radar.
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NAM 3km says Middlesex County is gonna get hit hard with 1 to 2 inches of rain over the next couple hours, lol. I'll just assume it's wrong. That's an insane overhyping model. I remember on 4th of July night it had some areas getting 6 to 9 inches of rain, when in fact it was only a quarter to half inch in spots. Horrible model.
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18z run of HRRR still has a decent amount of activity for tomorrow morning. Hopefully it will be a case of delayed but not denied for heavy rain this week. It has been a little frustrating having to wait this long, since originally it appeared that we'd have good rain chances for most of the week.
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Hopefully it's coming for tomorrow morning, but I'm starting to become a little worried that this is an event mainly for the coast with only spotty activity to the north and west. It's very dry here, so it's going to be rough if we don't get any significant rain before the big heat wave. I'm still fairly optimistic about tomorrow morning, but we'll see.
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Can tell you're rooting for the rain end early tomorrow so it doesn't mess of your son's graduation party! I see 12z RGEM has it mainly over by late morning as well.
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Radar looks pretty good, but I see latest HRRR says those downpours to the south are gonna weaken and just be showers by the time they get up here. HRRR is a wildly inconsistent model though, so who knows. Would like to see heavy rain this afternoon, but maybe we'll have to wait until tonight or tomorrow.
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Just 0.02" here this morning. Very dry here, so I'm really hoping we get a significant amount of rain today or tomorrow. Probably going to be hit or miss with this event though, with some areas getting 3 inches of rain while others get less than a half inch. Hoping to get lucky here.
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It hit 91 here, but felt pretty comfortable with the dew point in the mid 60s. Felt so much better exercising outside today than it did on Tuesday when the dew point was in the mid 70s. The 10 degree dew point drop really makes a big difference.
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I went to sleep last night when I saw the line was weakening, but I did receive .08" here. A shower but not enough to help. Looking forward to hopefully getting much more significant rain tomorrow into Saturday. Very dry here so we really need it. In the meantime it's nice to get a little break in the humidity today. Feels more comfortable out there with the dew point down to 65 here.
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I'd be very happy to get a quick quarter inch from that line, but it will likely fall apart and just be a little shower by the time it gets here. Will keep an eye on it just in case though.
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91 with a dew point of 76 here. Looks as if we could finally see a significant break in the humidity coming in the end of next week, but before then some intense heat. I won't be surprised if we hit 100 on Tuesday. At least upper 90s.
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I see the CMC finally took away the storms for tomorrow. No surprise there as it was on its own. Dry day tomorrow.
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It still looks likely though that we're gonna have to wait until Friday for rain. Most models still have tonight's line of storms in PA falling apart before getting to our area during the overnight, and slightly drier air moves in tomorrow. Dew points will probably drop to the mid-high 60s tomorrow. Hopefully Friday into Saturday will deliver. It does look promising for heavy rain in spots.
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95 with a dew point of 74 here. I see Euro has our area near the edge for Friday into early Saturday. Heavier rain to the south and east. I'm still optimistic about Friday, but it's far from a sure thing. Considering all the potential this week had with the big PWATs, it would be very frustrating if we end up getting very little. Hopefully we'll see the heavy downpours Friday.
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Yeah we have a chance, but I see most models have the activity in PA falling apart before getting to us late Wednesday night. I'm not getting my hopes up on seeing anything before Friday, but you never know. Even today there could be one or two pop ups. Overall this week trended drier, but I do think we're still looking good for Friday. Hopefully it will be a case of being delayed but not denied this week with heavy rain on Friday.
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We avoid the truly oppressive humidity for 1 more day. It'll be here tomorrow.
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I'll be heading outside to water the garden shortly. I didn't even get a half inch of rain last week, so it has become dry here again. It looks likely that the rain is gonna miss me to the west on Wednesday, although you might have a better shot at seeing something there in NW Jersey. If some of the latest models are correct, a lot of the area might have to wait until late Friday for a better chance. Looks as if I might have to do a lot of watering this week since we might not see much until the end of the week. With the very high humidity, I'm hopeful that we'll see some downpours that give us the 1 to 2 inches that we want to give everything a nice watering at the end of the week.
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95 degrees with a dew point of 68 here right now.
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And Euro not very impressed with later this week. It does finally give us some rain Friday night.
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Yeah it looks off to me. CMC looks better with heavy rain for our area Friday.
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I see GFS on the 12z run now is giving us very little rain for late week. Not that I buy that. It does appear that most of the rain is going to miss us to the west on Wednesday, but there should be plenty of heavy downpours around Thursday and Friday. Especially Friday ... that looks like our best chance.
