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winterwx21

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Everything posted by winterwx21

  1. winterwx21
    Yeah we'll have to see how much this extremely dry air hurts us. Latest HRRR still looks pretty good with a half inch to inch for a lot of the area. Euro still looks decent too. Hopefully we can pull off a nice little half inch to inch snowfall. You never know, it could be the last one this season.
  2. winterwx21
    Along with the HRRR, the Euro tonight looks decent with a half inch to an inch for much of the area. Could be just a dusting, but we also have a shot at getting an inch. I'll enjoy whatever snow we get.
  3. winterwx21
    Too bad the NAM is a horrible model that we trust the least. I hate to completely discount a model since even the worst model is going to score a victory every once in awhile, but the chance of that happening seems extremely slim. However the RGEM shows why Walt never gave up on a light snowfall for our area. It's good to see that model giving us a little something Thursday afternoon. It's possible we can get a little bit with the upper level low or an inverted trough like feature. Getting close to an inch like the RGEM shows would be the story of our winter, but I would gladly take it. A nickel and dime winter is better than a blowtorch winter with no snow.
  4. winterwx21
    Of course this will be changing dramatically since we're going to have well below normal temps all this week. By the end of the week we'll be solidly below normal for the month.
  5. winterwx21
    We have to wait to see what happens in March. I know it appears that the month is going to start out mild, but of course it can be a wild month. If we get a significant snowstorm to get closer to average snowfall I would raise the grade to a B, but for now it's a C. Usually I wouldn't give a C for 14.5 inches of snow, but it has been a cold winter with numerous snow events and extended snowcover. At least it really felt like winter this year, but it's still disappointing that we couldn't get a siginificant snowstorm with the consistent below average temps. This week is especially disappointing since Thursday had big potential.
  6. winterwx21
    NAM was still a pretty good hit but not as good as the 18z run. It's probably trending towards the other models, but doesn't mean it's going to be a complete miss. Hopefully we will at least get brushed with a light event. I know some have given up, but I would at least give it until tomorrow night. Model skill isn't so great that we should be giving up 3 days before an event with the models showing a near miss.
  7. winterwx21
    And a little more than that with good snow ratios. I'd gladly take a few inches of powdery snow like Euro shows, but of course it'll be awhile before we figure out how close this is gonna be.
  8. winterwx21
    Great post, thank you.
  9. winterwx21
    GFS is close enough to give significant snow to southern NJ and we have almost 4 days to go, yet people think it's over. Too funny. Yeah this could miss, but we're still in the game. Snow ratios for this event are going to be higher too. Even if we just get brushed with a little precip we can get a few inches. Powder as Walt called it. We have a long way to go here to figure out how much.
  10. winterwx21
    That was good to see after a night of lousy model runs.
  11. winterwx21
    Well then you better take that back and instead tell them you'll work overtime.
  12. winterwx21
    Yeah I'd give it a C. It has been cold with numerous snowfalls, but it's a little disappointing to be at slightly below normal snowfall. It could've been an excellent winter with the consistent below normal temps. We need a significant snowstorm to raise the grade to a B or higher.
  13. winterwx21
    And you know you're not going to bed Ant, lol. You'll stay up to see the other models.
  14. winterwx21
    We still have UKMET and EURO tonight. Hopefully they'll look better than GFS and CMC did.
  15. winterwx21
    It has been a decent winter. However with below normal temps December through February, I'd like to have at least slightly above normal snowfall instead of the slightly below normal snowfall that we have to this date. Hopefully we can add on some more Thursday, but obviously that's very questionable right now.
  16. winterwx21
    CMC is mainly a miss like GFS. Bad night, but we still have 4 days to go. It's close enough that we're in the game.
  17. winterwx21
    Same here. It's a mediocre amount, but it feels like a snowy winter because the events have been frequent.
  18. winterwx21
    Yeah you never know when one will defy the odds. We've had many nice thread the needle snowstorms through the years.
  19. winterwx21
    I'd be ok with it if it brushes us with a moderate snowstorm like many of today's model runs show. Hopefully it won't end up being a complete miss. This is still pretty early considering model skill at predicting storm track at this range. They could completely take away our snow tonight or tomorrow and then bring it back on Monday. We won't know for awhile.
  20. winterwx21
    We're near the edge of the significant snow on this run. Just one solution and we will see many different ones over the next couple days. I don't think we'll have a good idea until Monday or Tuesday.
  21. winterwx21
    The thump ended up being very brief as those good radar echoes fell apart. Back down to very light snow here now. Just about up to an inch ... I measured 0.9". Looks as if about an inch is gonna do it for this event here. It has been a beautiful afternoon with this wet snow coating everything. Nice little event even though it's going to be washed away quickly.
  22. winterwx21
    He hasn't had a great winter. For the snow event in late January he surprised people by saying it could be mostly rain, which of course ended up being wrong. Then the snow event the other night he thought a 4 to 6 inch band would make it to the Metro, which obviously didn't happen. But of course these things are tough to predict and all mets have some good calls and some bad calls.
  23. winterwx21
    Should be a good thump for an hour. Nice radar echoes moving in.
  24. winterwx21
    Snow intensity starting pick up now. I was thinking an inch earlier, but maybe we can get to an inch and a half. As RU pointed out it's a degree or two colder than forecast. My street is starting to get coated now.
  25. winterwx21
    Temp is down to 32 here now. Still mainly accumulating on colder surfaces, but it is trying to dust pavement in spots now.
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