winterwx21

And 12z GFS does give us a snow event next Saturday. Way too early take that one very seriously, but I would think we'll have at least 1 more opportunity before the pattern breaks down.

CMC not surprisingly looks similar to RGEM. It gets the light snow pretty far north and at least gives most of the area an inch of snow.

Yep and I'm not giving up. Our area is right near the edge on the GFS. We just need the usual slight north bumps in the 48 hours before the storm. RGEM does get the light snow shield pretty far north. Don't know if it's right on that, but hopefully we can pull off at least an inch or so of snow like it shows. Hopefully we'll get some north bumps to get more than that, but to me an inch is a lot better than getting shut out. Right now I think our area still has a decent chance of pulling off a light snow event.

Figured the HRRR was off its rocker on the 18z run since no other model guidance showed anything like that. I doubt there will be anything more than a coating on colder surfaces in most spots down there.

It sucks that this happens very often in the days before winter storm threats. I wish the model technology was better.

GFS a significant snowstorm while Euro just brushes us with a little light snow. Crazy, but we're used to it. Very often we see these huge model differences 3 to 4 days before an event. You'd hope to have a good idea 3 to 4 days before an event, but very often we have to wait until 48 hours before the event and sometimes it takes until the day before. Who the heck knows at this point. Hopefully the models will be in agreement tomorrow night.

It's usually a wild ride for us in the several days before a snow event with the flip flopping models. I do think the UKMET solution is extremely unlikely though. As Snowgoose said, it's ridiculously progressive with the shortwave. I think at the very least our area will see a light accumulating snow like the CMC shows, but hopefully something a little more significant. Euro in an hour will be interesting to see.

CMC nothing like the GFS. The confluence eats away some of the snow and we only get an inch or two. Still a long way to go to figure this out, but at least it's very likely that we'll get some accumulating snow.

Yeah I was just gonna mention that too. I know we don't put much stock in long range NAM, but it certainly looks good at hour 84.

I meant the 12z Euro run.

The trend is our friend, despite that slightly disappointing Euro run.

This is how it's looking right now, and I'd be ok with that. Give me 2 inches Monday and I'll be happy. It would feel like deep winter with snow on the ground and cold weather all next week. Of course we're still almost 4 days out, so plenty of time for this to trend in our direction. Hopefully we'll see the confluence trend weaker and we can get a north bump.

Hopefully we can get enough of a north bump that it's very good for Philly. If that's the case we'd at least have a decent chance of getting a few inches up here.

Yeah 6 days is an eternity when it comes to storm theats. The models will flip flop for quite awhile. No use worrying about in now on New Year's Eve. It's time to celebrate the holiday tonight and tomorrow. I wish everyone a Happy New Year! Hopefully the storm threat will look good later in the week.

To me any accumulating snow is a good thing. Hopefully we'll get something bigger, but odds are very high that we'll at least see light events with the extended cold weather that we're going to have in January. It's going to snow.

Yeah if we get consistent cold for a couple weeks in January (which looks very likely), odds are very high that we'll get a snow event at some point.

66 degrees here! Nice to have some very warm weather before the cold pattern settles in.

45 degrees here. Nice recovery from the mid teens this morning. Feels comfortable out there.

At least January is looking cold. That gives us a good chance. Way too early to take any storms threats seriously or worry about the models not showing any storms threats. With consistent cold weather, odds are pretty high that we'll get a decent amount of snow in January. Even if it's just light to moderate events.

Yeah that's true. It is bad timing during the big holiday week. It does look as if it's just gonna be mostly light rain on Saturday. I hope you guys are still able to have a good time. Then some heavier rain late Sunday and New Year's Eve.

A lot of focus on the cold pattern setting up for January, but I'm glad that before then we're going to be getting quite a bit of rain. We still need it to help with the drought, so the potential of getting 2 inches by the middle of next week is good news.

Everyone knows Forky loves to troll. Best to ignore him.

I was just outside for a run, and I saw several front lawns in my neighborhood that now have zero snow on them. But the majority of lawns are mostly or completely covered. Obviously it depends on the amount of sun a spot gets. My back lawn is completely covered, but on the front lawn it's patchy.

Yeah it just hit 40 here. It's doing a number on the snow unfortunately.

It's up to 38 here now with more sun, and the snow is melting quickly. I'm starting to see patches of bare ground in sunny spots again. But at least the shadier spots will have enough snow left on the ground tomorrow.