winterwx21

I root for some cold weather in winter because it's needed for snow, but I hate a cold blast like this in November. I would love to go outside for a run this evening, but it's too cold for running. So I'll use the exercise bike inside instead, which I don't like nearly as much as running. I don't know how someone can call this type of weather comfortable, but I guess some people like bundling up.

Yeah that's the way it has looked to me for awhile too. It looks more like just precip along the cold front thursday night, rather than some kind of storm. Could change to a little wet snow on the backside of the front to the NW of the city, but not a big deal. The next week looks much more interesting.

I have tomatoes, peppers and pole lima beans that are still going strong in my garden. Yeah, that will be coming to an end this weekend. If we don't get a freeze to kill them off saturday night, we certainly will sunday night.

And RGEM came north with the more significant rain. It now gets a half inch up to NYC.

Yeah, I was just looking at 18z RGEM and it gets some rain up to the north of NYC. Tomorrow afternoon/evening will likely be rainy, even if it's only light rain.

Yeah definitely. It's all about perspective. I understand how some people consider tonight's rain heavy. 1 to 2 inches is a lot of rain. The rain is over here and I ended up with 1.20". A lot of rain, but it was over a long several hour period. In the summer I'll pick up the amount of rain I got tonight in just a half hour t-storm. So to me this wasn't heavy rain tonight, at least compared to summer t-storm rains. It was more an extended moderate rain and not terribly impressive. But it's all a matter of opinion.

It's already tapering to mostly light rain here. Probably a couple more moderate bursts over the next hour, but I can see we're going to be on the lower end of the rainfall totals because it moved so quickly. But even if we end up with just about 1 inch, it was still a good much needed soaking.

Definitely more impressive out your way. Here we're going to be on the lower end of rainfall totals. No big surprises. Some places will be closer to 1 inch, while other areas (like your place) will get over 2 inches.

Of course. I'm just pointing out that rainfall rates in this type of storm are nothing compared to summer downpours in t-storms. If it rained at this rate in the summer for an hour, you'd get a quarter to half inch and no one would think it's a big deal. It's not true very heavy rain like you get in summer storms, but I know it's impressive because it lasts many hours which gets you to heavy rainfall totals. To me this type of rain isn't exciting (although I'm glad we're getting a much needed soaking), but it's fine if others find it exciting. So far here I've picked up .85 of rain, but on radar the back edge of the steady moderate rain is already approaching Trenton. So we'll probably end up with a little over an inch here. Maybe an inch and a quarter. A good soaking but nothing to write home about IMO.

Sorry. It's just a little pet peeve of mine when people call it heavy rain in these types of storms. I've had the heaviest radar echoes going over me in the last half hour, and it's not even coming down half as heavily as it did during our heavy downpours in t-storms this summer. These noreaster type of storms really just have mostly moderate rain, but of course rainfall totals will be very impressive because it lasts several hours. It just doesn't excite me like the blinding downpours in summer t-storms do. The winds tomorrow will be much more exciting.

Getting into the peak of the rain event with the yellows and oranges on radar going over us. Coming down good but I wouldn't go as far as calling it heavy rain. It's nothing compared to the very heavy rain you get in summer t-storms, where you can get an inch of rain in 20 minutes. This is more like a high end moderate rain, but of course we will end up with very heavy rainfall totals because it lasts much longer than a summer t-storm. But this definitely isn't HEAVY rain. It seems heavy for this time of year, but again nothing like the true heavy rain in summer downpours.

Looks like another blowtorch pattern starts next sunday. Amazing how much late season warmth we get these days.

It's actually sunny and the temp is up to 70 here right now. A beautiful afternoon. Much different than forecasts that painted today as a cloudy ugly day due to the coastal storm. Turns out we had very little rain yesterday and now a beautiful day today, so different than the forecast. But I realize how difficult of a forecast it was with this type of coastal storm in this pattern.

Only a few hundreths of an inch of rain here, and I'm only slightly west of NYC. The main rain did not get too far west as expected. Would have been horrible if it was winter and we were just missing out on a big snowstorm.

And it was more than just 90. It made it to mid 90s which was incredible. It's not a good idea to make calls about potential crazy events not happening, because the weather has gotten so crazy these days. We have so many extremes. We can see 80 degrees in February and then a blizzard the next week.

No rain here yet this morning. To me it doesn't look as if much rain will make it west of NYC for this whole event. Maybe a tenth of an inch of rain if we're lucky.

We've had 80 degree weather in late October in recent years. Just because it's cool now doesn't mean in can't warm up again, and we see strong signals that we'll see a warm stretch later in the month. We're done with 90 degree weather, but we can certainly see a couple more 80 degree days. At the very least we'll see some more mid-upper 70s.

The last few days all forecasts have been talking about spectacular weather tuesday through the rest of next week. Upper 60s and sunny, some of the nicest weather of the year. What a change to go from that, to rain all week? These models do a terrible job.

Up to 94 here now. Amazing.

The cool shot for the end of the week is looking less and less impressive. We'll probably be back in the 70s by sunday.

92 degrees here right now. Ridiculously hot for the first day of fall.

That's possible. And I wonder if NAM and RGEM are right about tomorrow now being the big storm day. The 12z runs of both models are impressive with tomorrow's storms.

12z NAM and RGEM are advertising a much more widespread round of heavy storms tomorrow during the evening compared to today, even though today is advertised as the bigger severe weather day. Do you guys buy that? This is quite a change.

Heavy downpours have delivered a little over 1 inch of rain so far here this afternoon. The downpours are moving very little and just sort of sitting over this area.

Not likely is right. Rain looks as if it could start around noon time, with the heaviest during the afternoon to early evening. The event will probably be over by 10pm.