winterwx21

73 degrees here! Beautiful outside.

Of course it also depends on the individual. Brisk walking doesn't do a thing for me. Since I have an elite athlete heart with a resting heart rate in the 30s, I have to exercise at an intense level to get my heart rate up. Brisk walking doesn't even get my heart rate up to 70, because my heart is so strong. It wouldn't be any kind of cardio exercise for me. But for people with weaker hearts, brisk walking can be a good exercise. But I need to exercise at an intense level. My cardiologist is a big believer in a lot of intense exercise and long duration exercise. He thinks I should become a marathon runner because my heart and lungs are off the charts strong, but I don't have any interest in running that long. I think running 6 or 7 miles is plenty. Anyway I'm very happy that you were able to survive the cancer. Obviously we have some strong disagreements, but I can see you're a very nice guy and I wish you the best of luck.

I'm not blaming people for their illnesses. As I said, I realize there are many people that are unlucky. They get cancer and heart disease due to bad genes. All I'm saying is a lot of heart disease and cancer is preventable. Not all of it, but a lot. There are many studies that show that vigorous exercise is best. There are a lot people that walk a lot and are overweight, but it's rare to see serious runners that are overweight. I used to walk a lot, and my weight was rising every year and I was on the border of being overweight. It wasn't until I started a serious vigorous running program that I lost weight. Running burns many more calories than walking, and it also lowers blood pressure and improves heart health more than walking. The running caused my blood pressure to drop to 90/50, and my resting heart rate fell from 52 to 36 which is elite althlete level. My cardiologist said the serious running has put my heart and artery health at the best level possible, and he wishes most people would exercise like I do. If I switched to walking briskly 3 times a week, I would gain all the weight back and the blood pressure would rise. The serious exercise is what makes the arteries very flexible, which causes BP to go down.

I have a 0% chance of gaining it back as long as I can keep exercising. The studies have shown that people that lose a lot of weight through diet alone, usually gain most of it back. But the people that combine diet/exercise keep the weight off. Exercise is the key to keeping the weight off. I run 5 days a week and each run I do burns almost 1000 calories. It's not possible to gain weight when you're burning that many calories and not overeating. That's why my weight has stayed at about 135 for the last few years. Sometimes I have to increase the amount of food I eat because I don't want to fall to underweight. The running burns that many calories.

I'm not sure what your issue is. We're just pointing out that healthy habits (like eating lots of fruits-vegetables and exercising a lot) reduces the risk of being overweight and getting many diseases (like heart disease and cancer), and it also reduces the risk of getting sick during cold/flu season. The study results are overwhelming and those are facts that all medical experts agree with. Of course there are unlucky people that do everything right and still get diseases due to bad genes, but engaging in healthy habits does greatly reduce the risk overall. There's nothing wrong with encouraging people to get healthier, is there?

I realize obesity is a disease. But most people that are overweight, can lose the weight by going on a diet/exercise program. Most people do not need to be overweight.

Blame the patient? I'm just saying people would be a lot healthier if they would eat healthy and exercise. There's no need for most people to be overweight and at greater risk of all kinds of diseases. A lot of it can be prevented, but sadly many people aren't motivated to do it.

Older people and people with medical conditions need to be careful. There's no question about that. But there's no reason for the mega panic that's going on right now. Young healthy people are hoarding because they're so afraid. It's ridiculous, but the media hype is scaring people. I also think people need to take better care of themselves in general. People allow themselves to get into really bad shape due to bad diet and not exercising. It's stunning that two thirds of people in this country are overweight. That leads to diabetes and high blood pressure, which ends up putting people in higher risk categories. You can reduce your risk of getting sick by eating properly and exercising a lot. I used to get quite a few colds during cold/flu season. Then I started a serious exercise program. I run 25 to 30 miles every week, and I run at a vigorous 8 to 9 minute per mile pace. Since I started doing that, I almost never get sick. I've had only 1 cold in the last 5 years. The exercise has strengthened my immune system that much. I also lost over 30 pounds, going from 167 to 135. It's a shame that so many people are not willing to take action to improve their health. They let themselves get into such bad shape that they're prone to all kinds of diseases as they get older. These risks can be greatly reduced by eating healthy and exercising a lot.

Again, I don't know where you're getting the idea that experts are saying it isn't likely to peter out in warmer weather. I've read quotes from numerous experts, and most of them are optimistic that it will peter out in warmer weather. Corona is a viral respiratory illness just like the flu, and flu peters out in warmer weather. Here is a quote from Dr. Nancy Messonniere, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.... "Other viral respiratory diseases are seasonal, including influenza and therefore in many viral respiratory diseases we do see a decrease in disease in spring and summer. And so we can certainly be optimistic that this disease will follow suit." And that type of quote is what we're seeing from most experts. Again they're not GUARANTEEING that this will happen, since it's a new virus. They can't be 100% sure. But since it's very similar to the flu, it's very likely that it will peter out in warmer weather. It spreads in the same way as cold/flu, so common sense says it's likely to peter out in warm season just like the other respiratory illnesses. Just like it's reasonable to assume that the death rate is much lower than what's being reported, it's also reasonable to assume that the reported 20% hospitalization rate is also much lower. Again, most people get mild symptoms similar to flu and many of them don't even realize it's Corona. They don't go to the doctor because they assume it's flu, so those people do not go into the statistics. If they did go into the stats, both the death and hospitalization rates would be much lower. The reason why we're seeing the mega panic and hoarding going on, is people don't do well with things/concerns that are totally new. This isn't much different than the flu, but it's completely new and that scares people. You put on the tv and half of the news is dedicated to this virus. That's absurd and it causing a lot of the panic. Again we have flu outbreaks that kill thousands of people. It is estimated that the flu has killed 18,000 people in this country already this year. The flu is a MUCH bigger threat right now, yet the media is covering Corona like it's the much bigger threat. It's very unfortunate and leading to this horrendous hoarding that's going on. At least the grocery store that I go to is now putting a limit on how much water each person can buy, but it's really sad and disturbing that it has come to that.

I'm sure the death rate is much lower than 3.4%. Since this is so similar to the flu and most people get fairly mild symptoms, it's obvious that many people that get it just assume it's the regular flu and don't even bother to go to the doctor. They just get better on their own. So if those people were in the statistics, the death rate would be much lower. I was talking to my doctor about this the other day. She agrees that the hype about this Coronavirus is ridiculous. It's basically just another form of the flu. Remember 2 years ago we had that season with an extra serious strain of the flu that was causing much more severe illness and death rates. Why didn't the media go nuts over that? That was much worse than what we're seeing now with Corona. The media right now is just mega hyping this for ratings, and it's very unfortunate because it's causing a mass panic. People that are up in age or have underlying medical conditions need to be careful about catching this any kind of flu or flu-like illness, so yes there should be concern and caution. But not the epic panic that we're seeing right now, and younger healthy folks shouldn't be any more concerned about this than the regular flu. Yet people are hoarding at such great levels that you can't find a bottle of hand santizer anywhere, and even bottled water is becoming harder to get. It's insane and so annoying. There are companies working on Corona vaccines right now, and human testing starts in April. Some companies are projecting that a vaccine could be ready by the end of this year or start of next year. The stock price of Inovio Pharmaceuticals went from 4 dollars to 15 dollars in just 5 days on this news. Also, I don't know why you say experts don't expect it to peter out in warmer weather. I see many experts saying it's reasonable to assume it will go away with warmer weather, because it's so similar to cold/flu and cold/flu does go away in warm season. What they are saying is they can't say that for SURE, since it's a new virus. But there's a good chance it will, and that would at least give us several months without the virus.

Warm storm for thursday, but looks like a true arctic blast for a change this winter on friday. Could struggle to make it out of the 20s that day. Just a brief arctic blast though ... will go right back to the warm pattern very quickly.

You're so right about people being lazy these days, and that's why the majority of people are overweight which causes so many health problems later in life. That's why I always do my own shoveling, cut my own lawn instead of hiring a service and I also do a lot of running (25 to 30 miles each week). It's sad that so many people refuse to be active these days.

12z Euro says you have to go to northwest Jersey to get any snow accumulation, which seems like the more likely scenario to me. But since GGEM and UKMET have snow closer to the coast, we still have slight hope.

Anyone else look at the 12z GGEM? Major snowstorm for northern NJ, NYC and LI wednesday night into thursday. Not that I buy it. Other models are not showing this. Probably just the GGEM overhyping like it often does. Pattern does not support a snowstorm for this area, though I wouldn't 100% rule it out. Every once in awhile we can get a very lucky thread the needle in a bad pattern. I really doubt this one though.

This is the map that counts sleet as snow. The more accurate snowmaps that don't count sleet as snow, look nothing like this.

Models are showing better cold air moving in around February 6th. Hopefully we can cash in on that. Looks like a much better chance that something can work out the end of the first week into the second week of February. This weekend, as you and most people here have pointed out, is a true thread the needle that has only a very slim chance of working out. Really looking towards that 2nd week of February for a much better chance.

Looks as if tomorrow could be our last day with normal temps for a long time. No cold air on the models in the long range ... constant above normal temps. Of course long range is changeable, so hopefully something will change. But right now it's a very depressing look for winter lovers.

I just measured 1.7" inch here, and yeah it's sleeting here too. Lighter intensity precip, so it could flip back to snow is some heavier stuff moves in.

The change in recent days is another example of how difficult long range forecasting is. It wasn't long ago that the signs pointed to a very good pattern for late January. Now it looks like garbage. Thankfully we're getting this snow event today so January doesn't end up being a shutout.

That band in PA looks good. Latest HRRR is now giving 3 inches to our area ... good to see it's picking up on that band that will give us good accumulations later this afternoon.

12z NAM is giving nnj only about 2 inches now while it gives parts of Long Island 3 inches. But yeah, GFS does look much better for our area. NAM, RGEM and HRRR give us only 1 to 2 inches here now though. A cutback from what they were showing last night and I find it odd that some models are now giving LI more snow than our area. Hopefully GFS is correct for us.

NAM and HRRR actually give Long Island more snow than northern Jersey now. Doesn't make much sense since LI was supposed to get less due to warming. Models have suddenly cut way back for my area, showing closer to 1 inch. Bad trends here at the last minute for this area. I know people say it doesn't matter because it's nowcasting time, but models are supposed to be more accurate the closer they get to an event. So they should be more accurate now than they were last night, but it's hard to believe LI could get more than northern NJ in this kind of setup.

This map is always overinflated, as Allsnow has pointed out. The one that he posted tends to be more accurate and shows more like a 4 inch snowfall, compared to the 5 that this one is showing. Nice to see the NAM go colder though. 3 to 4 inches is looking like a decent possibility now.

That certainly was an ugly 12z GFS run for long range. A shame that what looked like a flip to a sustained cold pattern about a week ago completely fell apart in the last few days. Long range is so difficult to predict. Thank goodness chances are increasing that we'll pick up a few inches of snow here on saturday. It looks like our last snow threat for quite awhile. Hopefully February will be good like some of the signs are pointing to.

12z HRRR is pretty cold too, with 2 to 4 for most of the area.