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winterwx21

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Everything posted by winterwx21

  1. winterwx21
    2 to 3 inches for the NYC area on the UKMET. Not bad. I think most of us would be happy with that amount for this type of event. Hopefully the Euro comes north like everything else did tonight.
  2. winterwx21
    Yep, this GGEM run is mostly snow rather than sleet. Hopefully the weekend storm trends more towards snow, rather than ice.
  3. winterwx21
    Keeping the door open was wise, as we know these things tend to bump north as they get closer.
  4. winterwx21
    And a nice little bump north on 0z NAM. Gets 2 inches up to my area now, after the 18z run had almost nothing. Maybe our thursday morning light accumulating snow event is looking more likely now.
  5. winterwx21
    18z RGEM using Kuchera does get 2 to 3 inches of snow up to north-central NJ, NYC and LI for thursday morning. HRRR and GFS are pretty close too, having our area on the edge of the accumulating snow with an inch or so. It's hard to like this potential event right now with Euro and NAM south. Still enough time though, and hopefully those models will start a north trend tonight. With the very cold air in place, we would have good snow ratios and obviously no problems with the snow sticking. So I wouldn't give up hope for this potential event yet. North trend often works out.
  6. winterwx21
    The Canadian gives a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain with the weekend storm. Long way to go on that one.
  7. winterwx21
    Looks as if our overrunning event might be falling apart, but still plenty of time for it to trend back in the right direction.
  8. winterwx21
    Pretty significant south shift from its ridiculously warm 12z run. Still not enough as it keeps the 1 inch of snow line slightly north of NYC, but another shift like this on the 0z run tonight would put NYC in the game. This certainly gives hope that there's at least a slight chance that RGEM is right with the snowy solution.
  9. winterwx21
    So you're pretty sure the RGEM is wrong then. We can still hope for the slight chance that it's right though.
  10. winterwx21
    12z Euro still misses us to the south with this event. Hopefully the other models are right about us getting a few inches thursday morning, but who knows with the Euro not on board.
  11. winterwx21
    Looks as if GGEM brushes us with a couple inches of snow wednesday night. Hopefully this won't be a miss to the south like last night's Euro showed. Not a big storm but could be a decent advisory level event wednesday night into thursday morning.
  12. winterwx21
    It's definitely puzzling how warm NAM is. Hopefully RGEM has the right idea. Really tough to make a forecast right now with RGEM giving NYC 4 inches of snow while NAM gives nothing at all.
  13. winterwx21
    12z NAM is a decent hit for thursday morning with several inches of snow. Looks as if snow could come in as early as wednesday night.
  14. winterwx21
    Interesting that 12z NAM came in warm, but 12z RGEM just came in much colder. Watched the color loop and the darker blues get down to north central NJ and NYC. It looks as if it gets a few inches of snow all the way down to NYC, and has very significant amounts for northern NJ. Difficult forecast with such a huge difference between NAM and RGEM. Hopefully they will come together at 18z.
  15. winterwx21
    Yeah, close to 6 inches here. The back edge of the snow is almost here, so we'll be finishing up with about 6 inches.
  16. winterwx21
    They start very cold in the 20s, but how long it stays cold enough depends on what model you look at. Tonight's Euro, as Anthony showed in the February thread, gives the entire area a LOT of snow thursday afternoon into thursday night. For today's event, the Euro is still giving the NYC area a solid 4 inches of snow.
  17. winterwx21
    0z GFS gives the NYC area a few inches of snow thursday before mixing, but much higher amounts to the north where it takes much longer to change over.
  18. winterwx21
    It looks as if GFS gets a few inches of snow down to NYC with that one now. With leftover cold air from monday's cold blast, it's starting to look as if tuesday is turning into an interesting little event.
  19. winterwx21
    3 to 5 inches on the 18z RGEM. Not bad.
  20. winterwx21
    18z RGEM looks very good on the color loop. No snow map out yet, but I think this run is going to give more snow.
  21. winterwx21
    And it has decent potential due to plenty cold air in place. In addition to today's GFS and GGEM, last night's Euro also had accumulating snow Thursday.
  22. winterwx21
    What about Thursday? GGEM and GFS have accumulating snow that day.
  23. winterwx21
    UKMET just came in with a nice 4 to 6 inch snowfall, better than what the other models showed tonight. Euro going to be interesting.
  24. winterwx21
    Euro is a couple inches. Good sign, and I bet it will be more robust tonight.
  25. winterwx21
    Funny how it goes. You'd think the UKMET jumping aboard big-time would be a sign that the Euro (which was consistently showing a snowstorm) was really onto something with the snowstorm idea, but then the Euro comes in a miss by a lot. It's never easy trying to figure out potential storms. At least we still have 1 model showing a snowstorm, but the Euro dropping the storm certainly lowers confidence.
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