Yanksfan
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Everything posted by Yanksfan
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With increasing warming occurring by the dateline that’s progressively pushing eastward, La Niña is on its way to a quicker demise than earlier thought. Pattern is behaving more like an El Niño.
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I know that things can change, but we probably need to face reality and lay low for a week until the pattern matures some and then we can come back and track more legit threats.
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That storm is a long shot. It’s best for it to get out asap to allow heights to recover enough to get the weekend storm to come up the coast. The GFS OP took a step towards that.
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6z GFS is saying what favorable pattern? Shows a big rainstorm at day 11.
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6 inches in Nutley. Good storm. -
We needed this after the crap pattern we had in December. I got a good vibe this morning we’re going to rock in January. Buckle up Anthony!
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As long as it’s a blizzard of ‘96 redux, I’ll be satisfied.
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I think a lot of us NYC metro folks are still smarting from the last storm.
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Miller B’s rarely work out for our area. We have to deal with subsidence issues more often than not. Hoping for a weak/moderate ElNino next winter. Give me some Miller A’s to track.
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I hate LaNina’s. I’ll take my chances with ElNino every time.
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They must of seen something that the models have yet to pick up on. A little strange that they didn’t at least wait till the 0z runs come out.
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Further east? Just this morning we were worried about possible mixing issues! I need a new hobby.
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It only goes out to Friday 7am. Storm is still ongoing.
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Snow maps please.
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6z RGEM is north.
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Yet there were continued incremental improvements in the upper levels with less confluence/ stronger WAR. The north creeps may very well continue up until start time.
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No we don’t necessarily need the Pacific to cooperate to get a snowstorm, but it’s encouraging to see the latest long range guidance showing a much improved PNA. GEFS and EPS are hinting at a possible KU pattern developing at the end of their runs.
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Does anyone have the latest ENSO forecast graph? At the very least it looks like the Nina has peaked out.
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I couldn’t care less what it shows. Above normal temps coinciding with above normal snowfall is becoming the new norm. Torch away as long as I get my 40+ inches.
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This winter like most will come down to the NAO. There are good signs that we will have episodes of blocking which will certainly help our cause, but will it be a dominating force or just brief occurrences? Unfortunately the NAO is a very difficult feature to forecast especially in the long range.
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I yearn for the winters when I was a kid… pattern flip to cold around Thanksgiving followed by snow chances in December into January. Around mid month comes the dreaded week long January thaw (I like to refer it as halftime), then the 2nd half of winter rolls in with a blockbuster storm for good measure.
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We better hope so. A strong one and you might as well cancel winter.
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6 fatalities now reported in NJ. Sad situation.
