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Yanksfan

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Everything posted by Yanksfan

  1. Yanksfan
    I’ll follow the Nam but I don’t take it seriously until it’s within 36 hours of game time. The go to model for me is the RGEM.
  2. Yanksfan
    The EPS will be telling.
  3. Yanksfan
    The run looked wonky to me. Low was really stretched out and scooted east thus the lower amounts.
  4. Yanksfan
    Sure it’s the 384 GFS, but taken verbatim that’s a HECS pattern right there.
  5. Yanksfan
    Looked like the beginnings of an east coast snow mauler at the end of the run. One can only dream.
  6. Yanksfan
    We can only hope. I’m getting ticked off with all these rainstorms.
  7. Yanksfan
    ENSO 1.2 down to .89 according to tidbits.
  8. Yanksfan
    As we already know there will be other factors in play this winter. What will the PNA and NAO do?
  9. Yanksfan
    We can only hope.
  10. Yanksfan
    If there’s any indication what we’re seeing thus far this fall with all the coastal development, I would have gone higher with the precipitation up into the mid Atlantic . My thinking in the 125%-150% range. Overall good forecast.
  11. Yanksfan
    A raging Pac jet is the last thing we need this winter. We all know what happened the past three years with this stubborn feature.
  12. Yanksfan
    Wow I didn’t realize that Decembers have been that warm in recent times. I yearn for the days growing up when most years followed certain guidelines. Turning colder towards Thanksgiving with some flakes in the air, followed by bouts of cold and snowy conditions up until mid January when the 7-10 thaw would kick in. Finally the snow and cold bouts would come roaring back till the end of February/early March. Those winters around here are a distant memory.
  13. Yanksfan
    Best case scenario for snow lovers would be a primarily Niña based background for December. Nina’s typically are front loaded winters, followed by Nino coupling in January.
  14. Yanksfan
    NOAA predicting a warm winter? Shocking!
  15. Yanksfan
    For arguments sake let’s say we peak at a strong ElNino that ends up being decoupled. What effects good or bad would influence the upcoming winter?
  16. Yanksfan
    Oh my.
  17. Yanksfan
    That’s a snow weenie’s wet dream, but I’ll take the conservative approach. If the models still shows dateline forcing with a strong Nino by the time October rolls around then it’ll get my attention. As of now from my perspective it’s like looking at a blizzard on the GFS at hr 240.
  18. Yanksfan
    Looks like a basin wide event is in the making. A pretty good bump up in sea surface temps are being observed in the central and western regions according to TT the past couple of days.
  19. Yanksfan
    If this El Niño goes nuclear I’m hoping for a western lean or you can kiss another winter goodbye.
  20. Yanksfan
    Region 3.4 continues to drop down to .32. Region 1.2 after an earlier significant drop has leveled off for the time being. I’m having some serious doubts of a super El Niño let alone a strong one. My gut tells me we peak out at a moderate basin wide event. I’d certainly take my chances with that during the winter for folks in the NE/ Mid Atlantic regions.
  21. Yanksfan
    With the ongoing climate change we will continue to see extreme weather events in increasing frequency and out of the ordinary weather anomalies.
  22. Yanksfan
    I read somewhere that super Ninos are either eastern based or basin wide, but what if a fluke occurred like a super Modoki Nino? In that extreme setup would we end up with a prolific winter, or would the Nino overwhelm us with AN temps?
  23. Yanksfan
    On the subject of climate change and the increasing volatility going on with the weather, you think Mother Nature can conjure up the first ever modoki based super El Niño next winter? I would love to see NYC receive 100” of snowfall in a season!
  24. Yanksfan
    Despite what the GFS just showed, I’ll give it to 12Z tomorrow although it would be a fitting end to an absolute atrocious winter with one last knee kick to the nuts. Old man winter owes us big time next year.
  25. Yanksfan
    You might be right. The double barrel low showing up on the models today may be in response that they are not done trending towards a more favorable outcome. We’ll see.
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