Yanksfan

Yep. I had to do a double take. I thought it was Amy Freeze for a second. Oh well, back to the weather.

I know it's just a random run of the GFS, but towards the end of the run it shows a 968 cutter. That might just do the trick to snap us back into a more wintry regime.

Euro shows it too. Hopefully the models latches onto the idea and we have a legit storm to track. Believe me we need this with all the cliff diving going on in recent days.

Who me???

It's way too early for any ledge jumping. Heck look at the calendar it's not even winter yet. Despite the garbage pattern we're in currently, at least it's not a torch. It's just volatile. We can still score on some nickel and dime events despite the unfavorable Pacific. Like I said, once we get into January and beyond things will turn around in our favor. We have the players on the field; split flow jet, above normal SST's, and a low solar minimum. I don't see why we can't lock into a good six weeks of a snowy pattern.

Pattern sucks right now. We have a Pac jet on steroids and a lack of any meaningful blocking. All we have are quick shots of cold air followed by cutters. The only way we can score is with a well positioned SWFE. Hopefully with the impending AO drop it will reshuffle the pattern. In the meantime I'm about ready to punt the rest of December away. On a final note I got a feeling once we get into the heart of winter, the Pac will start to relax and stronger blocking will take hold. It's more likely than not we see a HECS before all is said and done. We just have to be patient.

If it were not for the raging Pacific we would be looking at a Boxing Day redux. On the flip side we have a week for the pattern to hopefully become more favorable. Stronger Greenland blocking and/or the western ridge remaining stout would certainly help. If not for those factors we're going to need great timing to pull it off. At the very least we have a potential big ticket event to track in the coming days.

I think it's safe to say all the warm December forecasts are going to bust badly.

4 inches storm total. At this early juncture of the season I'll take it and run.

GFS is always late for the party.

Looks like the Euro trended snowier/colder from this afternoons run.

Any word on 18Z Euro?

Why do I have the feeling we're going to see a redux of last November's snowstorm. DPW better be on alert with this one. Highly volatile forecast.

Janice Huff has upped snowfall amounts. 3-5 for NYC metro with 5-8 inland. As you get into the I-84 corridor a foot or more.

Any word on the 18z Euro?

I think the snarky remarks are the result of what happened last year with the ensembles calling for a cold/snowy pattern only to go up in smoke as it drew closer. Word of advice Anthony, when it comes to LR forecasts always proceed with caution.

With the QBO reversal and solar minimum one would think a -NAO would be a dominating feature this winter. I'm at most cautiously optimistic because over the past several years it's been so damn elusive to develop during the heart of winter, only to show up come spring and taunt us.

Don't stress. Better to have this warm pattern now than say mid to late December. Besides other than the random nuisance snow events that could occur this time of the year, we really need everything to align perfectly for anything meaningful to happen. Bottomline once the cold air returns, we'll be in a much better place (climatologically speaking).

Looks like the temp anomaly of planet Tatooine.

GFS coming in colder/snowier for next week's event. Without looking at snow maps it looks like a good hit.

Whatever happened to the old fashioned winters when I was a kid? It would start to turn colder by mid November and more or less stay that way into March minus the week long thaw in January. Damn climate change.

In a way you are. Last winters bust was in large part of a decoupling of the pattern. In other words the pattern that was presented to us did not behave like it normally would in past analog years. That's a big red flag for me. Could it be the changing climate? Perhaps. Already there is confusion with the winter forecasts starting to come out. Some are calling for a front end winter, while others are going backloaded. All I know is we are starting to see more weather extremes occurring. What do I think is going to happen for our area this upcoming winter season? Who knows. To me any plausible scenario is on the table from a 1995/96 redux to an all out torch. At this point we should just wait another month and hope things become much clearer by then.

Models probably underestimated the strength of the block. If only this were January.

Interestinging development. If we put all other weather drivers aside like the NAO and PNA, what ENSO state is more favorable for a productive winter in our area Modoki or Neutral? Reason being I often hear Mets and amateurs alike vouch for each if you want a cold/stormy pattern.

It wouldn't shock me if the upcoming Enso model forecasts show a weak west based Nino. Whatever's the case as usual our winter will hinge on the strength and position of the western ridge and if the elusive Greenland block shows up.