Yanksfan

Another disappointing winter coming to a close. That makes the 4th consecutive winter with below normal snowfall for the season for me and 6 out of 7. This decade rivals the 1980’s snow drought. Is there hope for next year? Perhaps. The early call is for a weak/moderate modoki which would be great for snow potential for the eastern US although I’m keeping my enthusiasm in check until I see the raging Pacific Jet shows signs of slowing down.

Earth’s resources will be long spent by then. Because of this humans will either be extinct or already moved on and spread out to other habitable worlds.

For once I hope you’re right. This winter has been down right torture on my soul.

It’s an epic failure and meltdown on so many levels.

Welp I guess you can put me in the pessimistic group. Last Friday when everyone was talking up this so called historic storm and models were spewing out ridiculous clown maps, in the back of my mind my thought process was “well I’m hoping this happens but more likely than not the other shoe will drop.”

I think your grasping at straws Anthony but let’s see what Euro has to say in a bit.

EURO has never been the same model since being upgraded. Back in the day it would lock into an event 5 days out and never waver.

Sorry I am not an imposter or trying to offend you but when you changed your display name for whatever reason, I assumed the name would be available once again. Being a diehard Yankees fan all my life, and trying to get out of this damn snow drought for the past 3 years that we’ve been in I figured that could change our luck. All I succeeded in doing was making our big storm this week go OTS and piss you off.

Nothing beats the March 2001 calamity, but I have to admit this one is going to sting for a while.

Waving the white flag for this storm and for this winter. Heck I’m used to the losing out coming from a Jets fan perspective.

The Euro upper levels were an improvement. Better heights out west, slower kicker, and a more consolidated ULL. Yet the storm shifts east??? It just refuses to snow around these parts.

I have the same feeling too but to what extent? With that damn kicker out west and the confluence up north it would take some big time positive trends to get back to the KU that we want. Time is still on our side so who knows. Just give me a general 3-6 storm and I’ll count my losses. A total miss would be a knee kick to the groin.

The pacific jet does us in again. What was a historic setup; a retrograding western -NAO, the blocking with the banana high, the 50/50 low and the PV lobe phase with an impressive southern stream all gone in a little over 24 hours. I was intrigued with the potential but never fully bought into it. Only if the big storm was there on Monday I would have jumped in. The elusive KU has slipped through our fingers. Is it too much to ask for a run of the mill 3-6 inch event? Could very well be. In closing these last few winter seasons have been frustrating to say the least. Now there’s talk in the NE forum next winter about a modoki El Niño which happens to be the most conducive to snow in the eastern US. Not if the PAC jet has anything to say about it. Sorry for the rant guys. Carry on.

Just chalk it up as a bad run. We move on, regroup and look forward to 18z.

A blizzard is great I guess with all the high winds and drifting, but not great for snow growth. The high winds breaks down the dendrites. You want calmer winds for maximum snow accumulation potential.

Would have loved to see the run play itself out to see if the low continued up the coastline or made a sharp turn east like at 12z.

That is how you draw it up. Textbook.

I assume there will be some epic solutions when the indies come out.

I’m not surprised. This next week is really going to test our patience.

I don’t care how ominous the 500mb maps look. We need the PAC jet to relax some or our great potential next week will be flushed down the toilet like all of the others. That damn anomaly has been wreaking havoc on us for several years now.

Snow map please.

Agreed. If there’s one model I trust the most it would be the EURO AI. It’s been spot on this winter. It has the Wednesday storm gradually trending north. I don’t have access to snow maps but it looks like it has a few inches in our area with more down in central and southern Jersey.

Everybody needs to chill. Any individual OP run can’t handle all the little nuances from the bombardment of waves that it’s trying to decipher. Look at the GFS for instance. It’s flip flopping like a fish from run to run. We need to focus on tonight only and forget about a storm that is days away. Once this upcoming storm passes and hopefully produces, then we can turn our attention to the next potential event.

Great post. Someone in the NE forum several years ago said it best during a high potential period for snow, “You can’t shovel potential.”

Wow I would sign up for half of that and run with it!