Tullioz

The models are showing a more favorable pattern beginning next week and continuing into February, so things seem to be on track for now. If nothing materializes by the end of this month, only then will I start to consider that this winter may be in trouble.

I'm not sure what all of the negativity is about, especially since it's only January 11th. As of now, things are going pretty much as expected for an El Nino winter, with most being back-loaded when it comes to cold and snow. Two of the biggest winters for snow in my part of NC, 1965–66 and 1986–87 (both El Nino winters), each had snowless Decembers, and the first snows in those winters didn't occur until the middle of January. Despite having no snow until mid-January, the winter of 1965–66 had 37.4" for the season, and 1986–87 ended up with 33.5". Both of those winters also had at least one 12-inch snowstorm. On January 25–27, 1966, 13" of snow fell, and again, a couple of days later, another 10" fell on the 29th and 30th. In 1987, 14" fell on January 22nd and 23rd, and again a couple of days later, on January 25th and 26th, another 6" fell. While I'm not expecting a repeat of either of those winters, they, along with other El Nino winters of the past, make me very optimistic that this winter will end up being a decent one once all is said and done.

The 12z Euro is getting close to being something.

The ICON and Canadian are trending in the right direction for early next week.

0Z Euro came in even lower. This is going to be an interesting system to track over the next several days.

Precipitation never went over to all snow, but there was enough mixed in to leave a little slush on my trash can lid.

Rain snow mix 36.1/35.8

14.0 degrees this morning at my location, which was the coldest temperature I have recorded in 2023. The coldest temperature prior to this morning was 19.8 on February 4th.

BWI: 28.6" DCA: 24.4" IAD: 27.6" RIC: 14.7" Tiebreaker: SBY: 11.9"

Had a morning low of 20.8 in my backyard just NW of Eden. Shiloh Airport (KSIF) in Rockingham County also recorded a low of 21.

Sleet snow mix at my location just west of Eden with a nice coating so far. The temperature is a bit colder than I expected it to be this morning. Currently 31.1/ 30.3

The temperature at my location just west of Eden hovered around 46.5 all afternoon and only started to rise around 6pm. Currently I'm at 52.3.

Light sleet just west of Eden. 46.7/29.6

18Z Euro was an improvement over recent runs for the northern piedmont of NC.

I've had a steady light snow for a little over two hours now. Within the past 15 minutes or so the intensity has increased quite a bit, but so far there has been no accumulation, not even in the grassy areas due to the temperature being well above freezing. Currently I'm at 36.9/27.6.

Light snow in Eden. 38.1/28.8

Starting to see some mPing reports of snow in central NC.

If you haven't found it already, I think this might be what you're looking for: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/ops/grid2grid_all_models/acc/

This is something I have been watching as closely as the possibility of Wintry precipitation late next week. December 24/25, 1983 is an experience I would love to repeat as it's a top 5 weather event for me despite the lack of any precipitation. At 12:00am Dec. 24th the temperature at my location in Eden, NC was 34; at 8am it was 23; by Noon 15; and by 5pm the temperature had fallen to +4. At 11:45pm I recorded a low of -1 for the day. Along with the falling temperatures were winds of 25 to 35mph with higher gusts at times. In my journal I recorded that we had wind chill temperatures of -25 to -35 during the day, but that was using the old scale. Christmas Day I recorded a high of 14 and a low of -4 with sunny skies. In my entry for Dec. 26th I recorded a high of 22 after a low of +2. I mentioned sleet and freezing rain on the evening of the 27th with a high of 29 after a morning low of 18. After a "mild" high of 34 on the 28th, the 29th saw repeat of falling temperatures during the day going from 34 at midnight, to 19 by 5pm. December 30th saw a high of 23 after a morning low of +6.

BWI: 22.5 DCA: 18.3 IAD: 21.5 RIC: 13.8 SBY: 8.8

Recorded a wind gust of 47mph at 5:05pm. Haven't had power since around the same time.

Just .03". Watching radar I thought for sure we would see some decent rain, but like you I watched the storms split only to reform to the south and east.

Crazy amount of lightning with the storms to my north and west.

There was enough hail (mostly pea to penny size) to cover the ground in some spots today in Eden . After multiple thunderstorms and showers moved through the area beginning in the late afternoon, I've measured 1.33" of rain through 10pm.

Moderate snow with gusty winds just northwest of Eden. 32.2/19.6