BombsAway1288

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It was solid from 36hrs in, There was an upgrade i think a year or so ago, But i would consider that to be a downgrade....lol

Ugh

These "upgrades" they give to the models don't do shit or just make the models worse it seems.

Happened with the NAM, with the Euro and now with the GFS. The FV3 is so bad, implementation is being pushed back yet again

Frustrating. Idk, maybe I'm just snake bitten with this year like Ray said. And I'm not even making forecasts!

Just now, weathafella said:

It was good for one season.  A lot of ball players are like that...

It had video game type numbers for that one year but it was still pretty good before that too. Now it's just all of it mojo

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The RGEM has been horrible, It had a great run a few years back and then the Canadians told us TGFO.

I don't know what they did to it. It used to be awesome, whatever it had 48 hrs out was a lock you could take to the bank.

Did they "upgrade" it or something?

2 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Is there a "calendar" of sorts that has the initiation dates of weather models?

 

There used to be a pinned thread with the breakdown of the release times for them years ago.

It was either in the NYC or NE sub-forum. Can't remember which one but it's gone now anyway

8 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

For what it's worth the 18z RGEM and HDRPS both ticked north

They've been terrible anyway. The HIRES had me getting 18" snow 2 days out for today's storm.

Hope the're right but take them with a grain of salt right now

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, Its weaker that's why its east, But Some need to remember to be careful what they wish for, A more amped system comes with more qpf but also comes with BL issues for the coast.

I would think that a stronger/ a little more amped system would bring good banding in that could overcome BL issues in this marginal temp set-up down here. If this is going to be a weaker system overall, forget about 10:1 ratios and it sticking that well. Then again, it's at night

Just now, weathafella said:

Euro mid levels don’t look great....nothing really closes off.  We’ll see.

I guess it gets going too late?

Weaker system, less qpf.

I'll believe it and the rest of the models at 12z tomorrow. Believe it or not, 24hrs out is still too much time for things to change these days

No report from James? I know his 16"+ didn't work out but it looked like the Cape was getting whacked this morning into this afternoon once the mix line collapsed.

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Yeah but it is his first winter on the board. Relax

True. It just seems pointless to even mention it. A lot of times in previous years someone would say it after a model run came in warm or dry for a storm.

52 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Have a hard time buying the HRDPS right now considering it doesn't seem to organize the Low all that much better than other models. Anyone able to justify how it could verify, more than welcome to hear it out haha. 

FWIW it was way too wet at this leadtime for today's "storm". I wouldn't buy it until 12 hrs out. Hopefully it's right though

17 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

My guy tells me this ends up being a nowcast event just like last storm, pattern won't be fully clear until tomorrow

Your guy/gut is telling you this is a nowcast? Really!?

Every storm is a nowcast.

This has been said by someone for every single decent winter storm for the last 5+ years

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ha... I know .. .like, is this thing ever going to show up already... .

But yeah, NCEP's recent publications on the matter, they're indicated that at long last, ... the atmosphere over the Pacific Basin is finally showing signs of coupling with the SST distribution (via convection/OLR distribution and so forth) so,, agreed... there might just be a PNA response here... 

Wonder if a bigger actual slow mover can Archembault it's way onto the charts over the next week. 

Don't look now ... ladies and gentlemen, maybe a fun exit to this tortured mess.  ... Well, tortured S of Glenn's Falls to PWM - not sure anyone up there has room to really complain.

Wouldn't that be nice.

Would like a nice cold airmass to go along with it instead of some rotting one so at least the non-southcoast coastal folks around here don't get stuck with slop, poor ratios that have trouble sticking. Obviously it gets a lot harder to do the longer we go into March.

The global's have been seeing the threats long-term though. The GFS has had this upcoming storm consistently since when, last Monday? It's just when we get closer in, with many other models thrown into the mix, we can't seem to get a proper consensus with even a 1 day leadtime

Hope you're right!

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Amped like a mutha 

I like ginxy to PVD to GHG

i-95 is favored 

Compromise of the Euro and GFS?

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The RGEM is certainly a bit south of the NAM/Euro/ICON.  Its had a pretty bad run lately

This year and last if I remember correctly.

It used to lock onto a solution 48 hrs out and hold onto it to the bitter end and end up verifying. You could trust it with your firstborn!

2.6" here final.

I'm actually kinda surprised that we got that much after going through that awful 00z guidance suite last night

3 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

It's because as it shifts SE, it does so due to the fact that it is disorganized. The more disorganized it is, the lower the QPF. The RGEM tends to be deadly in this range, so I would be cautious as to using the NAM verbatim right now. Likewise, last night's storm would show that there is the potential for more precip. Also, the SPC is expecting strong storms in the south tomorrow night, thus latent heat comes into play.

All of that being said, I would expect the POTENTIAL for this to be a rather significant (6+) snow event for the tri state.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

The RGEM used to be deadly. I hope it's right, I just don't trust it

I don't remember what the NAM was showing for the NYC area 24 hrs out but it was the only model remotely close to being right in SNE. It was the only one leading the charge showing it chasing the convection and jumping East.

Then again, every storm is different.

Here's to the NYC-BOS corridor maximizing Sunday nights potential!

11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Rgem is 6+ for the coast 

That would sound great 2 years ago. That model has never been the same since it used to nail everything in the mid and short range. I don't trust it or any other model until 12z tomorrow morning. After yesterday's forecast debacle under 12 hours out (at least in SNE), none of these models are worth investing in. Yes, I know, different set-up but it's a volatile pattern

Wild swings inside 24 hrs are not supposed to happen dammit lol

1 hour ago, Powderboy413 said:

I’m done for the season, signing out

Move up the hills! I know, easier said than done but the Pioneer Valley is the snowhole of Western Mass. I spent 4 winters in Amherst with a lot more memories of sucking subsidence then a clean snowstorm. 

Had friends that lived in Shutesbury and man, what a difference 1k ft. makes.  Biggest difference I remember was actually the Dec 08' ice storm. Shutesbury was a disaster area

It's cute that we're all trying to nowcast this thing back and all but every single piece of 0z guidance went east and away. It's over for any chance at a warning snowfall for everywhere. What an incredibly piss poor performance by all models! We finally got our consensus!

It's 2019, you'd think by now that we wouldn't be having significant swings in the majority of guidance 24 hrs out. Maybe it's just the volatile pattern idk, I give up and I'm not trusting any model for monday's storm no matter what it's showing until it's under 12 hours

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The ICON just did the exact same thing. I talked about this risk a few hours ago if you look back on my post in this thread. A few days ago I felt the risk was amped/cut but that obviously changed now given all the stream flow changes and shortwaves flying around. Suppression has become a real threat for Sunday, barocoinic zone getting dragged way east

 

“The new mesoscale model runs are pushing tonight/tomorrow morning’s event further and further SE. Keep in mind there is a risk here of how this will affect Sunday night. Imagine Saturday blowing up into a major low offshore. Arctic drain from Quebec pours into it. Flattens the flow. Causes Canadian ULL suppression to push into the northeast, causing the Sunday night event to suppress/graze the area. This is now a risk”

So now you think the Euro is too amped/going to be wrong?

You swore by it yesterday.

Whether you score a coup with this new analysis or not, maybe you should take a break from forecasting until after the storm and learn how to not be agenda-driven and cocky with the mission of pissing everyone off

Why is your username "snowman" anyway? Seems a bit contradicting

Would be nice to get the same last second NW tick that has hurt us all winter.

Of course when we need it the most, it's nowhere to be found, for now.

Have these 2 maps made their usual rounds on social media yet? Imagine all the idiots out there taking it seriously?

I think someone should post it

47 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Actually now he is saying suppression 

Yeah I saw that. He'll try to find anyway for the worst outcome to get under peoples skin in here. The true definition of someone who just trolls people on this board.

He's already 5-posted but just continues his crap. There should be something for him next time he talks in such absolutes.

Back to the storm

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

EPS from Delmarva to Cape 24 hr precip

Nice and juicy for a mean at d3

9 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Yes

A compromise would be nice.

Honestly, I don't think that any of the models will have a perfect handle on this until they see what exactly the Saturday storm does.

They'll probably still be swinging around come Sunday mornings 12z suite