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Fozz

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Everything posted by Fozz

  1. Fozz
    I recall several nice events in which I've seen 5-6" from an event that only had an advisory. With some luck, this one could also join that list.
  2. Fozz
    I know, which is why I said in the previous post that I don't really care that I'm not in one.
  3. Fozz
    Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if we eventually get the warning too.
  4. Fozz
    lol... I'm still not in a warning. But I don't even care. As Ron Paul would say, it's happening!
  5. Fozz
    I don't know when the snow was expected to start for the western crowd @clskinsfan @EastCoast NPZ, but from my experience, an early start is a great sign. Enjoy this one!
  6. Fozz
    It's fine. They are likely very busy, taking in a lot of info very quickly for a pretty tough forecast, working on a Saturday after many weeks without pay and no end in sight, all over a dumb political impasse. I think they're doing a great job considering the circumstances they're in.
  7. Fozz
    Hmmmm.... looks like they're hinting at expanding the warnings into Baltimore. Also it seems like barring a big north jump, @NorthArlington101 made the right move by driving to Charlottesville.
  8. Fozz
    My bar is 4". Hoping for at least a decent, high-end advisory event.
  9. Fozz
    That vort passage is a thing of beauty. Just perfect to crush our area. I don't care if it's 8" or 20", this right here is an awesome look.
  10. Fozz
    If this was 60+ hours away, I'd dismiss it immediately, but we're inside 36 hours and we have the NAM nuking most of us. I don't know what to make of this... it's one of the most stunning runs I've seen in ages.
  11. Fozz
    And it's not even finished. Still coming down. Maybe that 8" SREF mean in NE MD isn't as crazy as I thought. Or the NAM is just being the NAM. But still....
  12. Fozz
    Still coming down hard after sunset tomorrow evening, according to the NAM. I would've never expected a deform band like this a few days ago.
  13. Fozz
    NAM crushes Baltimore with heavy rates at noon tomorrow.
  14. Fozz
    Forgive me if I'm reading that wrong, but is this calling for 8.5" in Aberdeen? That sounds crazier than the NAM.
  15. Fozz
    Looks like a great event is unfolding for DC, southern MD, and VA. Enjoy this one you guys!
  16. Fozz
    I did a Shapiro-Wilk test on the precip data through 2017, and it confirmed a normal distribution (or close enough to it). But with 2018 included, that was no longer the case.
  17. Fozz
    I agree, which is why I ran the numbers using the entire period from 1871 to 2017. I'm not all that comfortable with a sample size of only 30 if I can do better.
  18. Fozz
    I'm not sure of their exact methods. I guess it would make sense to do that with their 30 year averages since the sample size isn't so big. I know they reduced the totals of Dec 2009 and Feb 2010 a few months after that winter, probably because of measurement issues or some other reason I can't clearly recall.
  19. Fozz
    I did a Python analysis on Baltimore's precip totals, just cause I felt like it, and it turns out that 2018 single-handedly wrecked the normal distribution. Precip totals are now skewed to the right. Sometimes one extreme outlier is all it takes. Baltimore's final total of 71.82" is over 4 standard deviations above the long-term pre-2018 average.
  20. Fozz
    Ouch, sorry that happened. I also watched it from inside for the most part. Around mid-morning on the 16th, I went out to try getting some logs for the fireplace (we lived in the woods back then) but then the snow was too heavy so I just stayed inside for the rest of the day and watched it pile up. It was an incredible sight.
  21. Fozz
    How well do you remember PDII? That one was also huge, and it was the first HECS that I remember well (I was way too young in 1996).
  22. Fozz
    I made a similar mistake years ago. January 2011, I stayed in college (UMD) and didn't go home before the storm. I didn't anticipate the vast difference in totals between the two locations. Long story short, College Park ended up with 4" of slop. At home it was 14", with a lot of thundersnow too. It's been almost 8 years, but I'm still not sure if I've completely gotten over it.
  23. Fozz
    If you want to be a glass half empty guy, then have at it. Last year turned out alright in my backyard, and probably yours too.
  24. Fozz
    How much did they get in January 2000?
  25. Fozz
    Jan 30, 2010 was a big one for Richmond. So was January 2016.
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