Fozz
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Everything posted by Fozz
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When the Euro + ETA (predecessor to NAM) agreed on something, some guys like DT would take it to the bank.
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January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!
Fozz replied to SnowenOutThere's topic in Mid Atlantic
You know it’s a good winter when irrational hype over speculative models or forecasts is spreading like wildfire. I remember it happened in 2014 for the first time, and professional mets were so furious and had no idea how to stop it. Sometimes it was a random Facebook page, or an image of a control run showing 2’ of snow 10 days away. But the masses grabbed on to it and went bezerk. -
I wouldn’t trust the NAM at 84 hours but you never know.
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Based on the latest guidance and trends, probably 60-70%. It’s going to be a big one.
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Picked up 3” of snow last night. I am stunned, I thought we’d get a dusting to an inch at the most.
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I think the most likely fail is if it over-amps beyond the GGEM and drives the primary even further up. I think it’s unlikely, but that’s the only scenario I can think of now that suppression is practically out of the picture. If sleet/mixing can be kept at bay (literally lol), I don’t see how this isn’t a regionwide KU.
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The entire DC-BOS corridor gets clobbered with 12-18”+ with generous totals well into the interior. We haven’t had a storm like this in ages.
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This is going to be the biggest snowstorm in a decade, and the consensus for a major to historic storm is robust. Also, you’ve been around long enough to see what other storms in the past 25 years have done. Know your climo and enjoy.
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So the UKMET too is a solid MECS regionwide? Let’s get the Euro on board
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I’ve learned a long time ago that if you want all snow, you want the primary low to transfer from around Tennessee and not seep into Kentucky or further north. If you ever worry about mixing, watch for that. Learned the hard way in Feb 2007. But even a great storm can have some mixing. Like PDII or Feb 10, 2010.
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The mid-Atlantic will be fine. At least DC-Baltimore. It’s Richmond and the southern areas that might see this slip away. Just as PDII became a tedious sleet storm for them.
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The GGEM…. I don’t even know what to say..
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Bear in mind the previous GFS was a petty 1-3” for most of us
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PDII all over again?
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Oh my….
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Being in Worcester now, I await this turn up the coast. Trends have been very good these past 24 hours.
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Your wisdom makes me feel better about this. Let’s get this done. I’m nervous but cautiously optimistic.
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I remember running to Home Depot in December 2009 to buy a yardstick, the night of the storm. In fact I think the first flakes started falling when I got back home. Measured 19” a night later. Enjoy!
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I got my KU book signed by him years ago. Great dude.
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If the storm wraps up late Sunday then I think a Monday flight might work. If it becomes a slow moving, fully phased monster that lasts till Monday afternoon then you might be doomed.
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But is 5-7” our ceiling or is there room for MECS totals here in SNE? I get that the Kuchera ratios on the maps might be inflated, but still…
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PDII was the first HECS that I remember with any clarity. I was a tiny child in 1996 but I tracked everything in 02-03 all the way through. I’ve been expecting this weekend storm to go up the coast all along, but yesterday unnerved me a bit. Hopefully the good trend continues.
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I remember Dec 2009 brought around 19” IMBY and then Feb 6 2010 dropped 25”. The latter storm felt much bigger and more of a beast. Not to downplay the December storm but Feb 2010 (even the first storm) was just a different league.
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This is really a phenomenal storm underway, and even better it’s coming exactly a decade (plus a few days) after the incredible 2016 blizzard.
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For DCA (due to its low bias) and southern MD, maybe. But generally I’d put the bar at 18”. The old rule of thumb is top 10 snowstorm on record.
