Fozz

2004-05

This will go down as a decent winter, but one that had so much more potential. So many wasted opportunities.

This decade has really hurt everyone’s averages. It’s been lousy across the board, but even moreso for northern areas that aren’t Parr’s Ridge.

PS - I didn't realize 1959-60 and 1992-93 had such awful starts. Because they had excellent finishes.

Hey this is some great info and I wanted to acknowledge the effort you did to put this together. I just came here to reformat the tables you made into code format so that they're easier to read. But great work.

964 near the benchmark on the GFS. Less than a week out. We need the Euro on board.

Rules can change especially when people push for change.

I don’t need it to be 5 degrees every morning but I’m certainly not ready for spring. Guys, this is New England. Let’s get another good storm.

I just realized two of those stretches were from 1960-61. That had to have been a legendary winter. I was at BWI and it looked patchy even though my family’s area still has very solid coverage. So I think 12z tomorrow will report a trace. But it was a very memorable run.

Yeah the last two winters weren’t great but they weren’t terrible either. They had a solid stretch of deep winter even if it didn’t last as long as we’d like. 2020 and 2023 were awful, similar to 2002 and 2012.

Climate directly relates to weather and I think we should be allowed to talk about it here. Especially what it means for the weather we can expect going forward.

Raleigh averages 4.5”. BWI averages 17”. Any southern sliders that hit Raleigh are few and far between. And they know that.

I’ve been wondering ever since I was a preteen in 2002 what would become of Baltimore’s snow climo with global warming, and the top of my mind was the awful winter of 2001-02 which would’ve still been awful even by 2020s standards. And even then I was thinking that if global warming proceeds the way that things were going, then Raleigh’s climo would be our endpoint. Of course, the early 00s was still a bit early to write off winter, but I doubt the upcoming generations that grow up in this region will experience at least one decent snowfall nearly every winter like we did as kids. The world is already at +1.3 to +1.4°C compared to the pre-industrial baseline. We are likely headed to something close to +2.5°C, so we’re on track to double the warming we’ve already had, but the impacts will probably be worse this time around. I do think the climate might stabilize late in the century at that higher baseline once cleaner energy sources take over, but the damage will be done, and my best guess is for what that means for Baltimore is a winter climo like late 20th century Raleigh.

The world is at +1.3 to +1.4°C compared to the pre-industrial baseline. Chances are that future warming will probably double this number by the end of the century. But the next 1.3°C will almost certainly be worse than what we’ve already had.

I lived further south during the Feb 2006 storm (and it was a good one even there with 15”), but one specific thing I remember was one of the TWC mets asking a guy in Boston about the upcoming storm (just before it started) and he basically said “It’s not going to be that bad, we’re only getting a foot” and I chuckled. As I recall even the TWC met was a little stunned after hearing that.

I’d say deep winter is over. But not winter itself.

I’m in Maryland until the weekend, so I had the chance to explore this glacier yesterday and early today, and it really was just like Feb 2007. It was rock solid, very slippery, easy to skid on, and you needed very good balance to even try venturing through the glacier. I measured around 6” depth as of this morning. And it had this very shiny glow especially under light that you rarely ever see normally. It’s been 19 years since I’ve last seen anything like this so you can say it’s rarer than a HECS. Not to mention, the Inner Harbor is partially frozen along with so many other bodies of water. The fun is ending with today’s warmer temps, but this was a hell of a run.

Radar looks good in your area.

I just departed from BOS and will be out for a week. I’m a little bummed to be missing the best part of this storm, especially now that Worcester is getting crushed.

A foot of snow already for those Essex county towns? That was so much faster than I expected.

Someone between Peabody and Gloucester is about to get over a foot of snow.

PDII absolutely was historic here and the January storm was comparable to it in this region. And yes, an 18” storm is a very big deal and a high-end MECS at the very least. It’s been a good winter in the area including yours. Vodka cold for weeks on end following an 18” storm what more can you ask for without getting into fantasies?

The GFS brings us PDIII

Yeah I’ve had my eye on the PD weekend for a while. Looks like a big hit incoming on the GFS. ETA: GFS taken verbatim is a PDIII

Miami is just a short flight away.