Fozz

No. The OP is not a blend at all. The OP is the operational run that is run at a higher resolution. The ensembles are different variations of the run at lower resolutions, to depict different scenarios under various tweaked conditions. The ensemble mean is the blend of all ensembles.

Probably because people feel that there's no going back to a further east track. I'd still give it until Thursday or Friday.

Maybe, but I'm skeptical. More often than not I've seen the models overdo the scouring out of cold air. But this is a potent system with an overhead track as depicted so who knows?

GFS has southern MD surface go from 20°F to 50 in the span of 18 hours. I find that a bit hard to believe.

Honestly I'd also ignore the ICON if it was the only one that showed a big storm.

That is one hell of a blizzard for SNE.

I actually don't drink, but I'd be happy to meet up if I head out that way.

The one thing those three storms had in common was the amazing rates and dynamics, including the widespread thundersnow. I remember seeing that flash of lightning at Millersville back in Feb 2014.

I might also head to Deep Creek if this storm cuts too far west. I haven't been to Wisp in a while.

I don't think you or I have much to worry with the snow being washed away. I don't see that happening. Sleet is in play, maybe also zr, but I don't think it will even be a major ice storm.

Looks a lot like a March 1993 lite.

A big hit for the I-81 crowd.

The GFS went from another Boxing Day 2010 to another January 2000 in the next run. Obviously this is all very far from certain and it's still being figured out but let's hope the final outcome is similar to this latest run.

I'm so sorry about your loss I can't imagine the feeling but I hope you are at peace.

I think Liberty or Roundtop would be ideal. Whitetail is a bit more challenging. Wisp is also a good spot for beginners but it is farther away.

Absolutely, and I should also add that skiing is not something you can learn just by reading about it. It might help a little to learn some tips, but ultimately you have to actually do it to really learn.

I'd say the best way is to book an adult beginner lesson at Liberty. They'll start you with the basics and the easier slopes. Then after a few lessons you should be able to handle the green runs.

I think 2009-10 was the best, since getting 3 storms that were 18”+ is practically unheard of anywhere in the country outside the mountains or LES snow belts. But 2013-14 gives it a run for its money IMO, especially in the colder suburbs. I’ve never seen a wall to wall winter like that one either before or since. It snowed just about every week, and dare I say I liked it even slightly better than 2002-03.

I think that was December 30, 2000. I don’t remember that one very well either, but I was told it was supposed to be a big one, something like 8-12”. And then it was not even a single flake. Same winter as March 2001, so a lot of heartbreak that year.

That is devastating. You probably felt a bit like John Bolaris that day. I think I had just a vague enough memory to realize throughout middle and high school that you should never ditch your homework just because you think you’ll get a snow day.

I learned it in high school with some friends. They pushed me to do the blues the second time I ever skied, because they told me this is what you need to do if you want to learn it quickly. I fell every 2 seconds but I got through it. I don’t recommend any beginners to try learning that way, but we were 16 and didn’t know any better. And yeah if you stop for some time then it will come back to you. For me it was almost 7 years, but after a few green runs at Liberty I got right back into it and never looked back.

I’m a cautious skier. I’m comfortable with the blues, I don’t go as fast as some others, and I’m perfectly fine that way.

Jan 3: 1.5” Jan 7: 5” Total 6.5”

Yeah I’ve heard. Sounds revolting to me. I’m assuming you were in SW VA back then. How long did it take for it to all fall apart and become nothing?