Fozz

How did 2016-17 end up so atrocious?

Yes it is representative of most people who live inside the beltway, though even there DCA seems to be on the lower end of the range. But that’s very different from representing the entire DC/Baltimore metro area. Especially when even people east of the fall line say that it doesn’t reflect their winter climate.

Mdecoy just needs to wait a few weeks then he won’t have to go very far to chase.

I think BWI and even IAD are much more representative of the region.

DCA is not representative of this region and should not be used to generalize the winter climo of the whole area. It has good data but it’s a very warm spot at zero elevation on a river in the center of a heat island.

The March optimism comes from the longwave pattern that is projected all the way until at least mid-March. DCA averages around 12” for the whole season, so it will really take a lot to get nearly a whole season worth of snow in just the last 2-3 weeks of it being realistically possible to snow. Also, places north and west of DCA do a lot better in March than DCA does. IAD has had many more double digit March totals than DCA since 1960. If you’re in the coastal plain then you might need to temper your March expectations but even then the first half of the month can still work.

Yeah I didn't want to say it but if everything goes our way this could be an appetizer for something bigger down the line.

GFS is showing a possible signal for the week of Feb 5th. ETA: looks like a suppressed southern slider. Probably worth keeping an eye on that window.

Weeklies are showing a very strong signal for the VDay to PD period, especially with such strong mean height anomalies 3 weeks out. Also could be a 50/50 low. Everything looks locked and loaded.

If this turns out the way the Euro weeklies are advertising, then a 30”+ season for the cities should easily be in play. Maybe 40+ if we get a HECS.

Seems like the weeklies just lock a very stable eastern trough and Greenland block throughout the whole run. Can it be trusted that far out, or is it simply projecting based on Nino climo?

While we're on this topic, here are some other spots and their snowpack records. Millers, MD from the late 80s to today (not far from psuhoffman, but lower elevation) Number of Consecutive Days Snow Depth >= 1 for MILLERS 4 NE, MD Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date Period of record: 1988-03-01 to 2024-01-22 1 75 1994-03-19 2 49 1996-01-26 3 35 2014-03-09 4 33 2004-02-19 - 33 2003-03-11 6 32 2010-03-08 - 32 2000-02-20 8 28 2021-02-27 - 28 2011-02-14 10 27 2001-01-14 BWI from 1950 to today Number of Consecutive Days Snow Depth >= 1 for BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, MD Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date Period of record: 1950-07-23 to 2024-01-22 1 29 1961-02-17 2 22 2000-02-10 3 21 1989-12-29 4 20 1960-12-31 5 19 2003-03-05 - 19 1979-02-25 - 19 1963-01-09 8 18 2010-02-23 - 18 1982-01-31 10 17 1966-02-12 IAD from 1960 to today Number of Consecutive Days Snow Depth >= 1 for WASHINGTON DULLES INTL AP, VA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1960-04-01 to 2024-01-22 1 26 2010-02-25 2 24 1977-01-29 - 24 1963-01-13 4 23 1971-01-23 - 23 1970-01-17 6 22 1989-12-30 7 21 2000-02-09 8 20 2015-03-08 - 20 1966-02-11 10 19 2003-03-05 https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ Seems like for the cities and close suburbs, the ceiling is 3-4 weeks. But if you're further N or W, you could get a much longer run under the right conditions.

You should publish it. Maybe get a PDF scan, and then upload it online.

2014 had a very sharp gradient between those who had an epic, historic winter, and those who missed out until the very late part of the season. But in the favored areas it was absolutely incredible. That's probably why. Also that list only counts consecutive days of snowpack, so if there are any small breaks before the next storm it ends the streak.

It was one of my favorites. Probably the closest we’ll ever get to a wall to wall winter.

2002-03 was the third snowiest winter on record in Baltimore, going back over 130 years. And second snowiest until 2010. On top of that it was the 8th coldest winter on record. Expecting every moderate or borderline strong El Niño to be like 2003 is incredibly unrealistic.

Your first winter in Parkton, and everyone thought it was Jay Peak

I counted 5 weeks

I think Ji averages 2/3 of what psuhoffman gets

Thats amazing, hope you enjoyed! I would’ve loved to ski out there if it was maybe 15 degrees warmer.

Not at all. More like Feb 2015 on a smaller scale. Or even December 2013. Fun times, but nothing like like 2010. I also question that 6.8” in the Hereford area of Baltimore county. That can’t be right. Probably measured the snow depth.

Here here! Looks like it’s finally wrapping up but it was awesome while it lasted. Picked up a quick 0.4” which leaves me with the same exact total as the previous event - 4.4”

Seriously these are the best rates and flake size of the day

Finally getting in on the action! Looks like a snow globe again

Thanks, that's actually perfect. Found exactly what I was looking for.