Fozz

I think it would take a lot of bad luck to get shut out. It could happen, like it did in 1998 and that early 70s winter. But with a highly juiced up STJ, I’d definitely take my chances. In 2016 we got a perfectly timed -AO/-NAO even after a disastrous December, and if that happens again then all bets are off. The long range precip anomaly maps for the winter months make me feel pretty good about big storm chances.

I believe somewhere on the East coast will get a HECS, just not sure exactly where.

A warm winter is a rock solid lock at this point. I don’t care that some monthly long range maps show blue in the east. This will be a record breaking Super Nino so we need to look at the fundamentals. Our only hope is that it’s closer to +3°F (which is salvageable esp with above average precip) rather than a +8 to +10 disaster. And yeah there is a shot of a big storm, though I think NYC points south has a better chance of that based on past Super Nino east coast blizzards.

2010 and 2016 were the only 2 winters where my old home in Maryland did better than your area.

I see a rotational signature near Fiskdale

Storms incoming

Glad to know I wasn’t just imagining it. I’m a little jealous though

We’re getting a passing shower and yet I could’ve sworn I’ve seen some frozen precip in the mix. Maybe even mangled snowflakes or graupel. And that is in spite of it being partly cloudy and 47. I’ve seen this before even in Maryland, usually in the spring when there’s a cold airmass in place and it’s probably a lot colder aloft.

Spring actually isn't too bad up here. There are nice days like today and there are lousy days that are 45 with drizzle, but those days are in the minority. Everything is blooming now and coming to life.

Just saw your thread about next winter. If a 2002-03 season happens then I’d be over the moon

How’s next winter looking? Should we brace ourselves for a Super Nino?

Yes. It was a horrible and very disappointing March. Winter just gave up after that storm late last month. Usually it puts up much more of a fight until the equinox

Very sad to hear. I will miss his updates.

Ouch that sounds pretty bad. I hope he recovers from his ordeal.

What happened?

Geoengineering is probably a bad idea but I think if the world hits 3.0°C+ (God forbid), it might become the less bad option. Unless future AI can invent a vast carbon capture system that scales on a planetary level.

You should’ve just skied east. Vermont instead of Colorado. I’d say if you book a big ski trip months in advance then it might help to get a refundable option just in case. I’ve postponed or canceled a few trips before. I know you usually hit Breckenridge or Vail in early Feb.

I haven’t posted much this month because there hasn’t been much to post about except warmth and snowmelt. After a good winter, it’s been a very disappointing March.

Great news! It appears that BWI will be going with 1” for this event. I do think the airport may have gotten a few tenths more but this is good enough IMO. I don’t know if any LWX mets who are in charge of these records read this board (MillvilleWx maybe?), but I do appreciate them following through what I recommended and so I have to give them credit where it’s due. The reason why I cared so much is because this was an extraordinary event and I want the official record to reflect how it unfolded - from a midnight high of 76 to accumulating snow in the same day.

Looks like BWI changed it to an M, meaning they’re acknowledging that the data is missing for that day. I hope they figure something out eventually. I think they should split the difference between the nearest 1.0 and 1.4 and go with 1.2”. Sure it won’t be perfect but at the most they’ll be off by a few tenths. Better than going down in history as a false zero.

I’m guessing nobody bothered to measure until it was too late and everything had already melted. It’s a huge abdication of responsibility if that’s the case. They should revise it to what the nearest site measured - if they could revise the 2009-10 totals down months after the fact, then they can do the same here the other way around.

So BWI reported a mere trace of snow today while the next town over got over an inch?

Living further north does not give you more knowledge or authority on this topic nor on mid-Atlantic climo. You just don’t know what you’re talking about.

I remember there used to be a traffic cam near Manchester, MD (MD-30 at PA line) but I don’t know where to find it anymore. I wish I could see it because any higher terrain that gets good rates will probably get the best accumulation.

When was it 87 at McLean today? That number has to be from yesterday