Fozz

I did two ski trips out west that season. It was an all-timer at Alta/Snowbird and the snow was phenomenal. Needless to say, this better not be a repeat, but I’m skeptical of ensemble means that are 2-3 weeks away.

Yeah I just took a look at the guidance and consensus is growing on a nice 2-4” event. And since it will be cold enough afterwards, that means we’d get a White Christmas.

It wasn’t just luck, we had a classic west based -NAO in a strong El Niño. Super Ninos are usually warm and boring unless we get that ideal setup, then a HECS is in play.

When is it reasonable to expect something more than a basic 1-3” event?

Hartford averaged 37” in the 1930s

That early Feb storm was a screw job for a lot of people, myself included when I was in RI.

2020-21 was actually the one good year, although winter ended way too early after mid-Feb. But aside from that, every other year after 2017-18 ranged from 41-54”. I wouldn’t complain too much if this winter ends up in that range, but man I want a MECS every year.

I was looking at past ORH winters where the total to date was single digits by New Years. It looks like seasonal totals of 35-50” were common. I also grouped the average snowfall of every 5-7 year stretch since 1980 and found that the snow drought eras averaged around 50-55”. That includes the last 7 seasons, as well as the 80s. Of course, I’m at a lower elevation than ORH so I can expect probably 5-10” less than those numbers. Needless to say, knowing where I come from, I’ll be thrilled to hit climo.

It was 12 degrees this morning, with a fresh covering of 1.5” of snow in mid-December. Deep winter at its best

If they’re showing that a White Christmas is on the table, then yes I’m very interested.

I’ll try to make it

I wish this wasn’t fantasyland.

I think this current climate regime just makes classic east coast storms very difficult. Flow is too fast, things don’t properly phase anymore, everything cuts inland or gets shredded, but south of I-70 can catch a break with these flat southern sliders (and sometimes even north central MD gets an occasional 3-5” event that 40N misses out on, but just not the elusive warning criteria storm). Trust me, north central MD is not the only place that’s been missing out.

Davis WV is a very impressive spot for snow and I can personally attest to it as someone who’s skied there. The upslope they get can rival some of the most intense blizzards I’ve ever seen. Meanwhile Boston needs to catch up to Raleigh

The last 3 years definitely haven’t done justice for what SNE should be like. ORH became like Boston, and Boston became like DC or Baltimore. And I’m left wondering if after 3 bad years, it’s a good time to move to the area (as opposed to moving right after a 2014-15). Because this lousy stretch can’t last forever.

I just looked at the last 3 seasons at BOS, and it was basically like the mid-Atlantic. 16.8" average.

Yeah, the angst is from the fact that it's December, and people want to see real snow during the holiday season, and it sucks to see it get squandered (assuming the last GFS ends up nailing the next 2 weeks). And if SNE can't reasonably expect it, then who can? If you have to go all the way to Vermont or Maine to see reliable snow in December, that's going to unsettle a lot of people. And as others have said, it's been happening for many years now.

If I didn’t know any better I’d be expecting a regionwide 8-12” out of this.

I’m curious about why that is? Is there some other teleconnection that is overpowering the NAO to allow these systems to cut? At some point I hope ORH can score better than 00s NYC.

I meant to ask yesterday, why would it cut so far inland if there is a solid block? I thought a -NAO was supposed to stop these systems from cutting to the lakes.

So close yet so far. Ended up with a few inches of snow, but much of the later afternoon and evening has been very icy. Congrats @HoarfrostHubb

Yep I am, just announced the other day. Snowing for real now

I’ve obviously lowered my expectations. This nasty warmth is clearly making it further inland than we previously thought. Still got a dusting so far in Worcester. Let’s see if it snows any more or if the rain/snow line ends up 3 miles north of me

I was just looking yesterday at why Pivotal Weather is so unfriendly for mobile devices. Turned out that their Beta feature basically solves the problem and works well enough.

I’ll take the over.