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ILSNOW

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    Jan 24-26th Something Potential

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    12z RGEM based off this run the northern suburbs are out!!!!

    It is possible that the northern suburbs might miss out but throwing in the towel based off of the 84hr NAM is crazy. I believe the system will be entering the west coast overnight and we still have 48  hours of model runs to get thru and you dont want to be in the bullseye now.

    prateptype.conus.png

    • Sad 1

    Dec 29-Jan 2 potential storm event

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Chicago NWS  

    Attention then turns quickly to that closed upper circulation to
our southwest Thursday evening. Models remain in pretty good
agreement in giving the short wave a negative-tilt orientation and
pivoting it north-northeastward Thursday night. Precipitation is
expected to develop and spread back north into the forecast area
especially after midnight, as substantial warm/moist advection
produces forced ascent and nudges the baroclinic zone associated
with the old cold front to our south back into the area. Sub-
freezing surface temperatures, reinforced by cool east-northeast
flow from the retreating high to our north, will set the stage for
a period of primarily freezing rain and sleet overnight into
Friday morning (with some snow possible far north/northwest) as
temperatures aloft rise above 0C. This is well-depicted in
forecast soundings, which indicate a substantial warm layer
centered around 850 mb, where temps warm from roughly +2 to +6 C
(warmest south) by 12Z Friday. Surface temps are progged to slowly
rise above freezing across the southeast half to two-thirds of
the cwa through Friday afternoon as the surface low continues to
lift toward the area, with decent model agreement that it
eventually tracks somewhere near the southern end of Lake Michigan
early Friday evening. With a plume of Gulf moisture allowing for
model QPF of 0.25-0.50 inches or more across the area through
midday Friday, the concern is that there could be some significant
ice accumulation prior to freezing rain changing over to rain
when temps warm above freezing, with our northwest counties across
north central IL potentially seeing a mix of snow/sleet and
freezing rain linger Friday afternoon. With the current track of
the surface low, afternoon temps are expected to range from the
low-mid 30s around Rockford, to around 40 in our southeast.
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