ILSNOW

Chicago NWS UPDATE... Issued at 1127 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Just a note on forecast expectations into this afternoon. Recent reports indicate up to 3" of snow in Lake and Cook Counties, with moderate to heavy snow continuing to fall, including 1/4 mile visibility at KMDW as of this writing. Also seeing less than 1/4 mile visibilty at KGYY and KIGQ. A look well upstream shows primarily snow hanging on up until central Wisconsin, where the transition to light rain and drizzle has taken place from a combination of warming temps and decreasing cloud ice. The overall trend is a slower rise in temps over the next couple hours and correspondingly the ptype transition taking a bit longer as well. Warming cloud tops punching south from southeast Wisconsin will steadily diminish snowfall rates into the Chicago metro, and then bring the anticipated changeover to light rain and drizzle in the 2-3pm timeframe. While snow will hang on a bit longer than earlier forecasts, little (up to a couple tenths) to no additional accumulation is expected after noon for most of the Chicago metro. Thus, not currently seeing any reason to change the advisory end time of 1pm.

I will take the RGEM for $1000 please

the 12z HRRR Alek snow

Is there any hope for us here in the midwest or more of the same to be expected? This is from the snowmonger Joe Bastardi!!!! Monster stratwarm going on right now Lets see what that means for March 10-April 10 ( target response period)

Looking forward to the late March snowstorm where we get 3-6 inches that melts away in less than 24 hours. This winter (take away 7-10 days in Jan) has been horrific and I truly can’t remember the last time we had a during the day.

here is the 1st one nice 1017 low moving thru IL

next chance at snow is on 372 hour 18z GFS

not sure how good the GFS is with freezing rain 12z

nice 20:1 ratios to fluff up the snow

Chicago NWS The models and their ensembles are coming into better agreement with a period of snow to spread across the area Thursday night into Friday morning. While there isn`t much qpf, perhaps no more than 0.1 to 0.15 of an inch, it will be so cold that snow ratios of 15:1 to perhaps 20:1 are likely, allowing for a fluffy snow. Given these trends, have bumped up pops to categorical with at least a few inches of snow possible across the entire area. Given how cold both the ground and air temperatures will be, the snow will quickly accumulate. Winds will shift to the northwest as this snow is ending and increase and gust, possibly into the 25-30 mph range. So if we do get a few inches of new fluffy snow, blowing/low drifting snow will be possible.

off an on light snow

18z GEFS Mean (10:1)

These GFS snow numbers are at basically an 8:1 ratio for almost the entire event. Storm does have great potential but would have one for the books if we had a cold air mass in place with 12 or 14:1 ratios.

Storm what are your thoughts for the area?

Well in excess of 8 inches does include 9-17.