TheBudMan

I think Tip said we’d see this back off some 

Prob more

Found it thanks.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1319.html

DISCUSSION...Associated with larger-scale mid/upper troughing  digging in the St. Lawrence Valley/lower Great Lakes region, forcing  for ascent with a lead speed maximum (30-50 kts in the 500-300 mb  layer) appears to be providing support for an ongoing, well  organized cluster of thunderstorms across southeastern Ontario.   Perhaps aided by an associated strengthening surface cold pool, this  activity has accelerated some (up to 40 kt) over the past couple of  hours, and may reach the Ottawa vicinity by around 19Z.  Along trailing outflow into the vicinity of its intersection with a  southward advancing cold front, additional thunderstorm development  and intensification is now also well underway.  Supported by  moderate southeasterly low-level inflow of moist air characterized  by CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, this seems likely to continue with the  evolution of another upscale growing and organizing cluster/segment  possible.  This may begin impacting the Ontario shores of Lake  Ontario into the Watertown vicinity as early as 20-21Z, perhaps a  bit earlier and more substantively than suggested by the latest  Rapid Refresh.  Although low-level wind fields are generally weak, the effective  downward mixing of higher momentum air aloft, associated with the  well developed/maturing organized convective system and associated  surface cold pools, probably will be accompanied by increasing  potential for strong gusts at least approaching severe limits.

3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I say this with love

A literal monkey could put a A.C unit in that window ..maybe you need to do a mod like adding a tiny piece of wood so it sits with a better tilt . This doesn’t require pages of discussion Geezus . Buy the Unit , put it in and enjoy the relief . I mean am I missing something ...it doesn’t need to be vacuum sealed To 1/100’th specifications 

All @Damage In Tolland wants is a picture of the lawn.....is that too much to ask for ? 

any hope for next week Tip or do I make like Ray and get into the tub and turn the toaster on ?  

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Make sure you report to BOX

Report to Jay first, priorities Wiz !!!    he's a bigger  than you ! 

Outflow is great, temp dropped in Reading   could feel it come through !   

Wiz I'd be careful, I hear Springfield is overrun with massive spiders.   might be easier to sit in the hot tub and wait for them to come to you   

Charts!

Guest appearance in late May by Ray as he preps his 21-22 winter forecast !   Big snow returns 

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This BD is forcing very little appreciable cooling impact ..that's for sure.   I mean Bedford MA is 79 F and they are only 10 clicks inland ...  Logan is managing to flirt with 70 on a 15 mph E wind in mid May - that's a bit odd actually.. 

Meanwhile, we're 80 to 83 up and down Rt 2 west of I495  this hour ...

Sensibly it is hotter than yesterday despite being located behind this analyzed front https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

Reason? no wind ... I mean the sun is like straight up and down ... almost 72 angle or whatever it's like burning the top of your head just stepping out there.

Still dry air though.

Noticing the ridge trying to rollback in next week, though more longitudinal ... Looks like the layout of a Lakes to New England drechio/MCS ...  There's a 570 dm thickness plume ( unlike this dry air ridge this go) skirting along within that ridge bulge, and it gets to about Watertown - Brian - PWM or so ...  and some EML looks like it may have gotten peeled away from the SW in that... 

Anyway, we may go from mid 80s to low 70s, to mid 80s/72 DP, Saturday thru Wed next week, and with a polar jet just next door over the St L Seaway...  could be a legit severe risk in that Tue-Thur time frame.

Of course ...all that's predicated on the assumption that these current looks hold.  A couple .. few cycles from now, the ridge may become strong enough to fend it all N, or... not exist as much... in either case... something else -

Tip can post all he wants but any NE Severe ain't for real until King @weatherwiz starts honking !!!

2 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Something interesting needs to happen like another severe outbreak somewhere  or an early season tropical cyclone. This pattern is boring me to death. I’ve been reading the book “Five Hundred Years of North American Hurricanes” just to pass the time and get ready for tropical season 

 

I hope George forecasts during hurricane season   that'll be awesome if there's a beast down by the Bahamas 

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Nah, we bronze.

Sounds like Pickles got shot down one night at Allisons 

Anxiously awaiting George's updated forecast.   50-75" regionwide lolli's to 100"  ??

Scooter/Ginxy vs. Kevin     hmmmm who will win 

RevKev a week from now 

All these April Fools posts today are going to reel poor Tip in ...... every one em 

Yeah sell. Some models have it, but tossing that. 

Anyone else watching this from NWS tonight ?  What a  I am        Great job NWS BOX mets !  

18 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Sometimes they’re too high and sometimes low.  Their snow algorithm is weird at times.  I guess the take home is we may have some winter left.

Take a week off Jerry then get the muthafukkas ready.  LFG !!!

Soon the annual metamorphosis will occur and Rev Kev will flip and join Dr. Dews to talk about TP sticking to fannies and encourage fear of droughts 

Kevin so excited at the thought of crippling ice storms in all of SNE next week 

Undoubtedly this will lead to the wrath of his legion of haters for wishing this upon us.     Calling an ice storm 5 days out has about the same odds as Wiz being right calling for a SNE outbreak 5 days out. 

Once I see rain on LI I know we're straight cash homie.   LETS GOOOOOOOOOOO  EMAATT

43 minutes ago, dryslot said:

 

Can't stop laughing at this      PERFECT !!!      Pope slaps down the Rev ! 

Who was the one who had the horrible maps a year or two ago      way worse than Wiz'      

If this still looks good at 12Z I nominate the Pope to start the thread.   Only good juju can come from the return of our long lost great Pope !!