Joe Clark

RAH Disco from this afternoon: .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Sunday... The chance for wintry weather across the N and W Piedmont Tue night into Wed is increasing. Chilly temps will persist through next weekend. Weak ridging aloft will create dry weather across the region on Tuesday. Cold surface high pressure building into southern Quebec will send chilly weather into the area throughout the day, with highs only reaching the mid to upper 40s during the afternoon. Latest models are coming in better agreement for the Miller Type B storm for Tue night/Wednesday. An upper-level trough over the mid- Mississippi Valley will become negatively-tilted and swing across the area Wednesday. Additionally, a surface low will develop to our south and move across the coast on Wednesday, and deepen as it moves northeast along the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Cold air will already be in place at the surface when precipitation begins Tuesday night with many areas at or just below freezing across the northwest half of Central NC, however the limiting factor in wintry precipitation will be the warm layer above the cold air near the surface. The layer does not cool enough for snowfall for our area, however a few flakes may be mixed in a times. Sleet and mainly freezing rain will likely be the issue for the northwest part of central NC. The highest amount of ice accumulation on Wednesday could range between one tenth and two tenths, but this could still change over the next few days. Temperatures will increase into the mid 30s by late morning, so precipitation in the afternoon should be all rain, then as precipitation ends Wednesday evening, a few snow flakes may be mixed in again with temperatures dropping.

Curious about everyone's take on these Facebook pages I see that seem to only post snow output maps of every model run. Typically they take the one that gives their area the most and then post stuff like "alert mode" and 'heavy snow possible." I've noticed that many of them have recently posted today's 18z run on the NAM for the late week system in carolinas. Do any of the owners of those pages post on these forums, and are any of them at all reliable in your opinion?