Rankin5150

I feel NWS-GSP worded this spot on: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM Monday: No major changes to the overall forecast from the 12z guidance. If anything, they continue to trend a little slower/delayed on the onset of precip, and also a little heavier in QPF. The 12z ECMWF has come in more northerly/inland with the sfc low track, and results in warmer thicknesses across the FA thru the event. This allows a stronger warm nose, and perhaps, more of a mixed bag of p-types, versus more ra/sn that previous runs suggested. I opted to blend a little 12z ECMWF into the partial thickness p-type nomogram tool for this forecast. Still get a lot of snow in the mountains and the I-40 corridor with this solution, but if the new ECMWF trend holds, these values will likely be a lot lower, due to the sleet/frza mixing in. With all that said, it still looks like a significant winter storm on tap for most of the mountains and adjacent foothills in NC, while the Piedmont south of I-40 is highly uncertain. Temps will start out below normal Friday, as a reinforcing cold front pushes thru. Then classic cold air damming sets up Friday night thru Sunday, as a strong sfc high builds in across the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. The heaviest precip looks to be mainly Saturday night into early Sunday, but that time may change slightly as we get closer to the event. Temps will be tricky with the CAD. I stuck close to WPC, but these may be too warm within the heart of the CAD wedge.

Thank you for the info. Would you mind posting them, when you have time. Thanks in advance...

Unfortunately...for our areas...if it can go wrong, then it WILL go wrong. It ALWAYS seems to be just right and there is no way we can miss out and then BOOM...something happens and we are screwed. LOL. I am with you brother...the setup is TOO AWESOME to NOT get something decent out of this. Fingers crossed we can get the cold source we need to SEAL THE DEAL! SIGH...

Looks like it has deformation axis in the CLT area or points due north. Interesting...

THANK YOU SO VERY MUCH! I really appreciate it! Best, Jason

Good morning everyone. I hope all is well and everyone is having fun tracking our first real threat of the early winter season. Does anyone know of a good website to look up past snowfalls for North Carolina? I want to go back through a lot of the past storms we have had, as well as look at past winters to see how things shook out for the Charlotte, NC and surrounding area(s). Thank you in advance for any input/links, etc. Best regards, Jason

Here is an update from NWS-GSP: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 410 AM Monday: Threat for significant winter weather next weekend continues, especially for the NC mtns and adjacent piedmont and points north. However, confidence is very low on the exact details. The 00Z EC was preferred for the extended given its better consistency and it falls between the faster and warmer operational GFS and the slower and colder GFS ensemble members. Thursday into Friday will be the quiet before the storm. Zonal flow aloft will prevail during this time with surface high pressure weakening and shifting southeast of the FA Friday. A northern stream disturbance passing to the Thursday night north may bring some clouds to the mountains with an outside shot at a few snow showers. Otherwise expect increasing clouds by late in the day Friday ahead of a surface low pressure system developing along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will warm some into Friday but will likely remain below normal. The surface low is currently expected to track near the northern Gulf Coast Friday into Saturday before crossing FL and arriving somewhere near the Southeast coast Sunday. the timing and location of the low would support continued increasing clouds with precipitation starting sometime Saturday, possibly late in the day. Most guidance shows a 1030mb+ sfc high pressure system building into the Mid Atlantic states Friday night into Saturday just ahead of the storm system. This supports much colder air filtering into the region by Saturday with highs expected to only be around 40, setting the stage for the potentially significant winter storm. Saturday night into Sunday currently look like the period for the most significant precipitation with a strong southerly low level jet pumping moisture into the region above the cold dome of high pressure wedging down east of the mtns. Much uncertainty exists with the eventual precipitation type across the region. At this time it appears that the biggest ice/snow issues would be on the front end of the storm system. Although, if the fairly strong sfc high pressure system gets locked into the Mid-Atlantic states on some models suggest, then significant snow and ice will be possible, especially across NC. Although at least light snow and especially ice accumulations are possible even across southern portions of the FA as well. The forecast will likely change multiple times this week, but now is the time to begin putting a winter weather plan together for this potential significant winter storm.

For those that have beads of sweat forming on your foreheads, because of the 0Z runs, please remember to take a look at all the pieces on the table AND take into account the naunces of the models at this RANGE. For example, if you look at Vapor, you can see the Split flow developing. Also, the GFS ALWAYS loses this storm at some point. Besides...it is only ONE run. Lets stay away from the cliff and see how future runs progress from here...

The February 2004 Storm is my ALL TIME PERSONAL BEST Snowstorm. We got 17" from that monster. I remember tracking it and it ALWAYS showed heavy totals on the forecast maps, however, it ended up being colder and we got hit with a ULL at the end. Lake Wylie, SC (a few miles down the road from me) got 24"+!

Good morning folks! I hope everyone had a safe and wonderful Thanksgiving? I do not know about you all, but I am SO READY to track a winter system! Hoping we have a 2009-2010 kind of season, where the tracks were APLENTY! Is there anything on the horizon that keeps showing up, but not quite close enough to set up a thread? LOL...I am ready to see some awesome analytics from all the Southeast Crew!! Have a good one everyone and STAY SAFE! Best, Jason

AWESOME! Have you heard any Thunder Snow or seen any reports of any? I have seen scattered reports in various states. Thanks in advance.

So that is a good thing for you and I Mark? Thankies bud!

Looks like the CLT area will be screwed with this system. Looking at the radar, it appears the battle lines are already set. SMH. Looks like the Mountains/Foothills and I-40 N will be the places to be yall.

Roger that! Thanks!

Grit, Do you think the CLT/Gaston County areas will reach warning criteria?

With the developments you are seeing take place, what Analog do you see shaping up so far? I am thinking November 18, 2000. Hope all is well my friend!

THANK YOU for all your awesome posts GRIT!! Hope all is well!

I am wondering why I do not see an example of "insults on the way a person looks" on here? This is common courtesy that a person should have along with the "how much", "Republican", "+1" issues. From what I recollect, that person was never given even a timeout. Must be a helluva donator

Good thinking Jeremy.