kat5hurricane

North and west almost always does better.in any setup. That isn't exclusive to this winter or recent winters. The coast (L.I. specifically) did extraordinarily well in the 2000-2018 period because there were so many dynamic systems with perfect benchmark tracks, not to mention lots of blocky periods creating long duration events. This system was moving too quickly like so many in recent years and not dynamic enough to drop really high totals at the coast. Still, it was a very good storm for most so nothing to complain about really.

4-8" in and around the metro. Pretty spot on forecast overall outside of the northern areas which greatly overperformed. I think some saw the 6z euro with the 12"+ numbers and set unreasonable expectations. Very nice storm, the best in 2 years.

I was actually sad going into Manhattan, the transition from beautiful snowcovered landscape in western Queens going into the tunnel to gross wet concrete coming out of the tunnel was eye opening. Not that I expected any different.

Oh I know. I just find it funny that you couldn't tell it snowed at all in Manhattan while everywhere else is a winter wonderland. The snow has picked up here recently fwiw.

Heat Island, Concrete Jungle, New Puddle City etc.

Yep, we got the screw zone on this one. NYC and North Central Jersey. Reminds me of March 2018 with so many near misses with the real heavy stuff. Still, it's a nice little storm 4-6 inch kind of deal which we take after 2 years of mostly nothing.

Yep, the real heavy stuff will be reserved for you guys on L.I. and north and west of the city. You're in a prime spot to get blitzed.

Steady moderate snow, big flakes. About 3" now

Moderate here occasionally heavy, eyeballing around 2". I'm starting to think that NYC is going to get stuck in the subsidence zone between the heavy band on L.I. and north and west. Hopefully the NW band pivots through here. We'll see

Gotcha. Just to clarify though, I did say wet main roads and a nice little coating on the grass. We dumping now though so lets have some fun. Hopefully the sun angle doesn't melt everything, I kid I kid.

Yep, same here but it was more like 7:30

Yeah, I'm just off of Powells Cove.

@ag3 @BxEngine@MJO812 This was about 30 minutes ago...

Roads just started to get snowcovered. I'm right by the Throgs Neck bridge like literally the most northern part of Queens and the main roads just got snowcovered, I'm not making this up guys.

Whitestone. Pics aren't uploading for some frustrating reason, will try later. Starting to stick to the main roads now that the heavier bands filtered in.

Yes I know. I'm just saying that not everything is snowcovered and it's about a coating on the grass. I'll send pics soon to confirm

Not here my friend and I'm in one of the colder spots of the boroughs. Main roads are wet still, I was just out in it. Not complaining, just saying it's taking a while to stick here at least.

No doubt but ground still wet for the most part and this is a quick mover. I can't see 12" anywhere close to NYC unless the rates are absurd. It'll be a good storm regardless. Some areas north of the city look primed for 12+.

Yeah, those numbers are way high. I don't see a good chunk of the metro getting 12"+. Maybe up to 8 in spots.

Slopfest in Whitestone. Very wet snow, coating the grass but most roads are wet. Rates are just too light thus far.

He's probably the most accurate met on this site. His word is as close to gospel as one can get in this field.

I know. People keep talking about wet roads in these marginal situations but most people live outside of the heat island. Bottom line, if it snows hard enough it will stick everywhere even with marginal temps. This is February 12th, not March 12th. It's all about the dynamics and this storm looks to be a quick heavy thump.

If it was March I'd agree but being mid February still, the city can really accumulate even in a marginal setup if the storm is dynamic enough outside of midtown Manhattan of course. I think 3-6 is a good call for the city right now, more just north of the city but it was higher potential IMO.

Wow, I had all but given up on this yesterday afternoon then see the thread title saying "6-12" for many" and couldn't believe my eyes. I'd still be wary of any last minute north trends (I don't buy suppression) but the trend and model consensus is undeniable. Suffice to say that the 12z suite is going to be critical.

The trends are usually north even in good winters which is why you almost always want a suppressed look several days in advance.