kat5hurricane
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Everything posted by kat5hurricane
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The Euro pulling a bit of a windshield wiper effect going a bit east gives me pause but what I'd give for the GFS to verify. I have GFS failure PTSD though so I just can't trust that damn thing. It's still the only model brining the big snows up here. Edit: I see that the 6z Euro moved back west a bit. This is one of the most unpredictable forecasts that I can remember
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The key is trends and every model so far is trending strongly in the right direction. Still need more positive trends to get in the really good stuff though but it's painfully close
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Well, better than shit from the beginning. It went from overall shit to getting shit on at the last minute.
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The NAM isn't quite there yet but it's all about the trends and this was a big trend in the right direction and gives some credibility to the trends we saw in the 18z suite.
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Pretty wild, I didn't see this coming but it could also be a windshield wiper effect with such a drastic shift so I can see it correcting back east a bit at 0z but, who knows, this whole thing has been really unpredictable. The EPS had been pretty steady up until this cycle so this is a pretty big surprise.
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That's what I'm thinking, 0z will be way more telling but regardless this is exactly the type of shift we needed to give some credibility to the GFS solution.
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Ok, I might be eating some major crow here. I did not see this happening with the Euro AT ALL, it has hardly waivered for days. It could be a windshield wiper effect when it corrects back east eventually but this is a surprising turn of events. Then again 18z runs tend to be wonky so not sure how serious this shift is.
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It's bashed for a reason, it never verifies when it's an outlier. If it pulls it off this time being an outlier I'd be beyond shocked because that would be unprecedented for this model.
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The GFS is the only one that stuck to the big hit idea, all the others moved off of it. We can all see where this is going when the GFS is on its own. When was the last time it scored a coup when it was on its own? I honestly don't remember
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Ok so 0z it is lol @Wxbear25 The GFS has been consistent with this solution, I'll give it that much, but unless we see other models converge on anything close to this it's hard to take seriously.
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Never said that the Euro was infallible and in fact I emphasized that point in my posts but the odds are when the highest scoring model doesn't buy a solution for many cycles odds are in its favor and it's just my own instinct from being a weather junkie for decades that the Euro is more often a leader than the GFS. I'd bet anything that we see the GFS start to cave starting now and if not then likely by 0z.
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There's no pessimism. It's a recognition of pattern, seasonal trends and two other things, when the Euro locks in on a solution for days despite some of its flaws it's usually best to roll with it and when the GFS is an outlier it's best to ignore it.
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The Euro never being interested in this storm is a big red flag to the other models IMO, not to mention the UKMET not wanting a part of this either although it has fluctuated a little more. I've seen this happen too many times to think this is anything but a grazer at best but we'll see.
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It's so annoying. It's not even funny, it just clutters up the threads and belongs in banter IMO.
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All the major models were showing a big snowstorm at 12z yesterday outside of the Euro. They all trended towards the Euro today starting at 0z last night. Is it an overall trend or just a blip, time will tell, but I do know that they're a lot less enthused than they were yesterday while the Euro was never enthused.
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Based on what the Euro shows and overall trends I'll guess 70% whiff and 30% advisory level as of now. Subject to change of course but the trends seem fairly obvious IMO.
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Below advisory level is way higher than 30%. When the Euro and ensembles agree that this thing is a whiff the other models are pretty much just noise.
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I'd roll with the Euro in this scenario, it's not perfect but it usually leads the others.
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This is some crazy model consensus this far out. It could easily wind up being a whiff but when most of the major models converge on a similar solution even 5-6 days out it garners attention at the very least.
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Feeling like spring out there, feels really good, feels rejuvenating. I'll still root for snow when there's something to track but I'm just about done with winter at this point.
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It doesn't matter where you live, saying winter is over on February 11th is stupid.
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I've said this before but I don't see how it's a waste of cold when we had a 10-18" areawide snowstorm a few weeks ago.
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It depends on preference. If you're one to prefer persistent snowcover and cold then I don't know how this could be less than a B but if you look purely at snowfall amounts in total then it's been average at best as it's been predominantly cold and dry outside of the big storm and the 2-3 moderate ones.
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There's like three weeks left in February. Save a post like this for Feb 20th or later at least.
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The cold is unbearable. I'm not somebody that shivers generally but this is legit shiver cold, the wind just makes it absolutely brutal.
