kat5hurricane
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Everything posted by kat5hurricane
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The Euro never being interested in this storm is a big red flag to the other models IMO, not to mention the UKMET not wanting a part of this either although it has fluctuated a little more. I've seen this happen too many times to think this is anything but a grazer at best but we'll see.
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It's so annoying. It's not even funny, it just clutters up the threads and belongs in banter IMO.
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All the major models were showing a big snowstorm at 12z yesterday outside of the Euro. They all trended towards the Euro today starting at 0z last night. Is it an overall trend or just a blip, time will tell, but I do know that they're a lot less enthused than they were yesterday while the Euro was never enthused.
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Based on what the Euro shows and overall trends I'll guess 70% whiff and 30% advisory level as of now. Subject to change of course but the trends seem fairly obvious IMO.
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Below advisory level is way higher than 30%. When the Euro and ensembles agree that this thing is a whiff the other models are pretty much just noise.
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I'd roll with the Euro in this scenario, it's not perfect but it usually leads the others.
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This is some crazy model consensus this far out. It could easily wind up being a whiff but when most of the major models converge on a similar solution even 5-6 days out it garners attention at the very least.
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Feeling like spring out there, feels really good, feels rejuvenating. I'll still root for snow when there's something to track but I'm just about done with winter at this point.
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It doesn't matter where you live, saying winter is over on February 11th is stupid.
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I've said this before but I don't see how it's a waste of cold when we had a 10-18" areawide snowstorm a few weeks ago.
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It depends on preference. If you're one to prefer persistent snowcover and cold then I don't know how this could be less than a B but if you look purely at snowfall amounts in total then it's been average at best as it's been predominantly cold and dry outside of the big storm and the 2-3 moderate ones.
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There's like three weeks left in February. Save a post like this for Feb 20th or later at least.
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The cold is unbearable. I'm not somebody that shivers generally but this is legit shiver cold, the wind just makes it absolutely brutal.
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We just had a coating to an inch areawide. Not much but there was a good snow shower last night. We had a 10"-18" storm area wide just two weeks ago, it's not that bad. This has been the best winter in 5 years.
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It's wicked out there. This is as much of a Frozen Tundra look as we'll ever see around here, some of the roads by me are white and not with snow.
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What? We've had deep snowcover for almost two weeks. How often does that happen especially at the coast?
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I'm fine with a miss, these huge snow mountains are causing major disruption and it's not going anywhere anytime soon so I'm fine with not another 6"+ added to the pile. The snow weenie in me is struggling with rooting against this thing but the more practical side of me wants no part of it.
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Uh, we have seen positive trends on the GFS and on the Euro albeit baby steps. The ensembles have a left lean as well. UKMET and CMC less so
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I have that feeling too for the same reasons you mentioned but it's close enough to keep our interest at the very least.
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The GFS is exactly where we want it right now
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There are maybe 2-3 clouds in the sky and it's snowing, wild stuff.
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It's less than 6 days away but I get the caution
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963 is insane. A 968 on the GFS and 963 on the CMC, this is a massive storm signal. Placement is obviously the big question but these are some extreme solutions.
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I cleaned off my car and my spot last night and woke up to 1-2 more inches of snow added to it, didn't see that coming. @ag3how much did you add up last night?
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Generally I would agree but all the models have a big storm in the vicinity and the pattern supports it, plus we're not in fantasy range anymore. Also, there have been a few KU's in the past that were locked in on the models a week out. Of course plenty could still go wrong but it'll be a fun week of tracking at the very least.
